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I've just had a very, very depressing losing session in a game online where I usually play.
I'm not sure exactly what happened, but I know after a while I stopped playing my best game. I've lost a bunch in $2-4, then went and played $5-10, where I lost a ton more. Lost, lost, lost... bye-bye entire bankroll and winnings of just about half a thousand. Not the amount I'm worried about, but it took me weeks of good ENJOYABLE play to make that money, and now it all goes down the drain. Why is that? I admit I was playing for money this time around, but that shouldn't stop me from winning. I went on a tilt a few times even, but recovered.
Ahh... how depressing. What makes it more depressing is the fact that I can't just stop playing.. I love the game too much.
Hope your games work out better than mine, slay.
You admit to less than good play, probably in playing too many hands.
When you have had a short history of small but consistent wins it may falsely appear that it is due soley to good discipline. In fact, its a combination of good play AND decent cards. So when you start losing, its possible to feel that it will turn around because you are playing good.
There ARE times when a game is good, but you are losing, and you stay and make a comeback. However, you should balance your personal analysis into two parts when falling behind.
How do you maintain good play in spite of losing, AND what are the circumstances when you should just quit.
The second aspect may be far more important than the first!
I have experienced the same. After I retired I played a few hours almost every day at a local club and was a 3 out of 4 times winner over 30 or so sessions. But I would have a bad loss once in awhile and give back a lot of my winnings. It had more to do with not quitting that poor play, althought poor play was a factor too.
My overall play has improved most in that I seldom have a big loss. I just take my licking and quit. In a 4-8 game I usually buy in for $60 and rebuy once for that same amount. If I lose that I usually just quit.
There has to be something special about the game, like 6 callers every hand, that may make me stay beyond $120 but even then if I get in two racks, I'm homeward bound.
One thing you need to do is decide in advance, what will make you quit?
ugh, I just typed a whole message and lost it cause I forgot to type in my name. anyway,
Zen, you say that you generally do two buy-ins. $60 and then $60 more if you lose it. I used to do something like this (but much worse) but I don't think it's the way to go. Instead, I argue, you should buy in the whole $120 and then leave if you lose that.
here's why:
1) A bigger stack in the beginning has positive psychological effects.
2) With a small stack you may not "allow" yourself to play agressive when certain hands require agressive play. When you have plenty of chips, this is not a problem.
3) Going all in is bad when you're the winner, and if you have enough chips this can't happen.
On the other hand, though:
a) some people are too loose when they have big stacks.
b) the player has to be able to quit after losing the $120.
Now I really don't play poker without doing at least 40 times the small bet.
--worm
when you're losing AND in a bad frame of mind, NEVER EVER jump up to a higher stakes game in a "bold" attempt to recoup. when you're losing and not on tilt but feel your bankroll is threatened, NEVER EVER step up to a higher stakes game to recoup. the anxiety will compromise your play. when you're losing and think you're handling it well, NEVER EVER step up to higher stakes game, because that's a telltale symptom that you are in actuality NOT handling it well.
climb the ladder only when you have been winning with regularity, have a secure (and enhanced) bankroll, and be prepared to seesaw up and down between games for a while as you gradually adapt to the wider swings you'll experience on the way up.
I have played quite a bit at Foxwoods for the past two years. If you want to play poker in the Northeast it's the only game in town. I have never been treated rudely. I agree that Vegas and a lot of other places do provide a more "friendly" atmosphere from both the employees and patrons alike. But because Roy Cooke is a pussy doesn't mean that it isn't worth playing at Foxwoods. Excuse me if I used the word "pussy" in such a pussified manner but my dandy, I mean dander is up.
vince
Hey Vince,
Could it be that Roy ran afoul of some out-of-town desperados in for the big tournament? Obviously, he didn't meet the nice guys--you and me. Well, you anyway, cause I'm not too sure about me.
John
Roy Cooke is not the first Vegas pro I've heard blast Foxwoods. I have a good buddy out there that plays nothing but stud. He hates Foxwoods with a psssion. He visited here last November and told me it was the worst experience of his life. He dissed the dealers, floor people and players alike. What amazed me about his comments was that even though he acknowledged that the stud games were much better at the Woods he would never play there again. I get the impression that Cooke feels somewhat similar about FW. Of course Cooke plays Hlldem and when he was there I would be surprised if they could keep a 20-40 game going. Holdem in CT would not be to Cooke's liking in my O.
I refeered to Cooke as a p---y in my last post but after thing about what my buddy told me I come to the conclusion that Vegas pros are spoiled. I was weaned on Casino poker at the Taj in Atlantic City. When they first opened it was a free for all amongst the patrons. Lot's of screaming and yelling with not much control from the inexperienced floor people and dealers. So playing at Foxwoods is old hat for many Northeasterners. I think Poker Vetran would love it ther. Sometimes all hell breaks loose and machoism reigns. The reason why this continues is obvious. It's the only game in Town. Vegas Casino's must contend with the competition both real and percieved to attract their customers. So they treet things differently. They also have been doing it for a lot longer and have learned how to control most aspects of the game. Bellagio's is with minor exceptions the best run Card room around. They do not allow the players to take control of the room. They have very good floor people. Quite a few experienced dealers and provide an upbeat atmosphere. They don't cater to the player as well as some California Casinos but for the most part control the atmospher better.
The difference between FW and the Taj and Vegas is like night and day. But if you want to play stud you can't beat the east and Holdem should be your game of choice out west. So what if there's a little discomfort. Winning makes up for a lot of little unpleasantries. So tell that P---y Cooke to get with the program or maybe we should just ask CP to replace him with the Macho Pker Man of all time. My hero and yours. Poker Vetran! Let's hear it for PV.
John, sorry, you are a nice guy!
Vince
Heh, anytime you say, "yeah, Vegas is nicer," there may be a problem with your local room. :)
JG
Finally! A San Diego player. Are you visiting or are you going to be here a while? Anyway, of where I've played, Oceans is the best. It has a nice atmosphere, and the games at lower limits always seem beatable. I've found Sycuan to be tough to extract a profit out of sometimes... some amazingly tight low limit play at times. But thier cardroom is recently renovated and by far the nicest looking. I would caution againt the other independant small cardrooms; I don't like the pay structure (usually $3 every half hour, doesn't reward tight play) and some can be downright scary at night. I played at the Palomar Club on El Cajon Blvd a couple times; wildest games I've ever been in. Live straddles, 7 way capped pre-flop. Not worth it in my opinion. Same for the Village Club in Chula Vista. Nothing special; save your time and effort to go some place where you don't feel a mugging is imminent on the way to your car :) Sorry for the long post; I'd love to hear from other San Diego players; I have yet to meet a local who posts here.
- Sherpa
Are there any idian casinos down in San Diego with poker rooms? Any good?
thanks
Yes... Viejas ans Sycuan. Both are worth checking out. They have websites; www.viejas.com and www.sycuan.com.
-Sherpa
Sherpa
I live in SD and play there every week. I primarily play at the lucky lady or viejas. Viejas games are quite beatable, but the drop there is high, so I am usually playing in a tournament as my top priority when I am there. The lucky lady has good games, but they are very loose aggressive, similar to what you stated. However, I am usually the only player at the table. The standard clientelle there is a bunch of loose aggressive low class morons.. It does not exactly attract the creme of the crop, to say the least. But you can in fact eek out a decent profit there. Often the games are nice and pleasant, but if they are not I simply leave.... Swings are high though because all games are kill games. They have a security guard who stands outside, I have never felt like I was about to be mugged. But I am also quite streetwise and careful. And the lucky lady is not exactly in the all-time nicest neighborhood. I like the staff however, they are real nice and the room is pretty well run, and the food is good, but the rules are somewhat lax, IMO. I also don't like employees of a cardroom ANYWHERE being allowed to play at the place where they work, but this seems pretty standard practice for vegas and california. Lax rules are also standard practice in cali and vegas, some places are better than others. I probably got too used to the very strict rules in atlantic city....
Anyway, email me and I will give you my # so we can get together. I plan to go to viejas for the tournament tomorrow night at 630.
dave in cali
I can instinctively guess it's an expectation percentage. But where did it originate? Was it Turbo Texas Hold'Em?
Just curious where I can find more info on this concept.
Thanks guys, slay.
EV = summation ( Pi * Vi)
where:
Pi = probability of event i occuring
Vi = value associated with event i
and the summation is taking over all possible outcomes (all different i's)
this formula can be compounded to solve difficult problems as well as the simple ones. I suggest you take a look at the example Louie showed you and you should see how you can calculate EV.
As most of you know, many of the smaller cardrooms in Vegas offer bad beat jackpots as a way of attracting players. Normally the criteria for winning the prize is to lose with a four of a kind or better in stud or to lose with aces full in HE (both hole cards must be used). On surface, it would appear that HE jackpots would occur more frequently since you only have to beat aces full. Is this true or is it the opposite? HE jackpots are typically much higher than the stud jackpots. It seems like it should be the other way around. Especially since HE games usually out-number the stud games.
It seems simple to me. Maybe I'm missing something.
In Hold'em with 9 players there would be a maximum of 23 cards in play (5 community + 18 hole cards) in each deal.
In stud with 7 players there can be 49 cards in play in a single deal.
Even though these are maximums, it still comes down to big hand occurrences within a set population.
In 5,000 deals of hold'em there would be a maximum of 23 times that in possible hands, but in 5,000 stud deals there will be many more cards and many more complete (different) hands in play. More possible combinations = more big hands.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Mr. Jones has the answer in his 1997 revised book "winning at low limit hold'em". After reading his answer (I perfer you read it from him) he goes on to say that good players will forget about the Jackpot and just concentrate on winning.
I am not sure if there is a name for this concept.
The idea is that there are some times when a bet or a call actually costs you MORE than the amount of money you put into the pot at that time. Is this like negative implied odds? I don't think it is.
Let me explain.
You are in the BB with AK. UTG raises with AA and the button reraises with KK. You call. It gets capped. A K flops. Tons of action. Turn is an ace. Lots of action. You pay off. Now, your original call cost you a lot more than the 1BB you put in the pot.
Obviously these mistakes are all de facto - you know that they were mistakes because you were drawing dead - but you DIDN'T know that before you played the hand.
Are there any cases where a hand will cost you more than the original investment, from a theoretical point of view, without knowing the other cards or cards to come?
For example, when you have AA on the button, you can estimate how much this hand will earn with a given lineup. In a looser game it is obviously more - in a tighter game, less. But it is always positive. In 10,000 hands you will make X*10,000 BB where X is the BB profit from each hand on average.
Are there any hands where X is actually more negative than the original investment? I believe the answer is yes. What is this concept called?
For example, I believe that unsuited connecting cards like 98o fall into this category. If you limp in with this hand I believe that it will always cost you more than that original 1/2 BB, no matter how well you play post flop, no matter how many limpers, etc.
Ok, scratch that. There are some games where it could be actually profitable to play this hand. In an extremely loose game where no one ever bet or raised but everyone always called.
In any realistic game, though, this hand costs more than its initial investment.
Do I have something here or is this crap?
-SmoothB-
SmoothB,
I don't have a name for the concept except perhaps “bad call before the flop”. However, I don't think 98o for half a bet in the small blind is a bad call against the right number of opponents and/or lineups. Most players do lose money, but it is mostly due to calling with insufficient number of opponents needed to get sufficient implied odds on their draws or a couple of the right type of weak opponents that they can beat without flopping much.
I think a worse mistake or bad call is when a player has a hand such as AT offsuit in the big blind and calls a solid UTG raiser with a few cold callers. This hand just bleeds money post flop yet most play it.
Rick
A hand cannot be worse than the original call if you play perfectly later, since at worst "perfect play" later means always folding. Its only when you are likely to make compounding mistakes later AND you don't take that into account that your expectated loss is more than the call now.
This is why inexperienced players should avoid lots of marginal situations by folding early since they are such a favorite to make mistakes in those situations. Thus, inexperienced players should play very tight.
This is the "Look-Before-You-Leap_Don't-Marry-a-Hand_The-Exit-Isn't-Locked_Fools-Go-Where-Wise-Fear-to-Tread_ There's-a-Difference-Between-Brave-and-Foolish" concept.
- Louie
You have some pretty cool concepts.
I think one REALLY big concept should cover it all.
Then we could digest it to a smaller form.
Then we could abstract it a little to make it better and nicer to say.
The "Look-Before-You-Leap_Don't-Marry-a-Hand_The-Exit-Isn't-Locked_Fools-Go-Where-Wise-Fear-to-Tread_ There's-a-Difference-Between-Brave-and-Foolish-+ even more stuff.
Digest it to "Play Well-Make Few Mistakes-Pick Good tables-Tight aggressive-Strive to be better" concept.
Abstractly "Deep Holes make a poor dinner companion". That's all you would have to know.
This is silly. Why did I write it? Oh no, I hit the POST button ....
No hand can ever be worth less than you paid to play it - for exactly the reason(s) you mentioned.
There are [obviously] hands that less experienced players should avoid, but a "perfect player" can never play a hand and have it cost him more than the cost of the original call.
Extremely well (yet simply) stated answer -
J-D
Hi everyone,
I'm am trying to set up Wilson Holdem 3.0 to play as a low limit (4-8 or 3-6) Bellagio or Mirage game. I would appreciet it if you could post the various opponent settings and lineup to most accurately simulate this game. Most appreciated!
Wayne
set up the players with the loosest lineup you can. make the game alternate players in and out of the game. ignore player names, just think of each hand as a "hypothetical situation" that might arise at a table. use the game to train yourself to quickly evaluate situations and make the correct mathematical decision. the advisor is not a good source of what the correct mathematical decisions is, so you must learn to correctly evaluate these things for yourself. if you like you could make the players check-raise less and raise less when you first start the game, that simulates a more passive game. keep in mind that no matter how realistic TTHE may seem, it does NOT match real life play, so just because you can beat TTHE does not mean that your real life results should be expected to be as good or better. the computer just can't simulate the thinking of real people, even though it is getting better. and I also recommend upgrading to the latest version. set the game up to have the same blinds and rake as these casinos, probably 1-3 blinds for 3-6 with a 10% to 3$ rake and 1$ tip per pot. most of the stats on TTHE are not worth bothering with. it's only a way to teach yourself to evaluate "hypothetical situations" and is overall a limited use tool. IMO, don't even bother with the simulation function, it will mislead you and confuse you.
dave in cali
nt
And now that I've read your post, I am gonna do it even more!!!!!
Actually, I was already gonna do it anyway, this thread just gave me a chance to advertise it! I am the type of person who likes to go out to nightclubs. Not just any nightclubs, gothic-industrial nightclubs. Where this type of garb is fairly commonplace (though I have NEVER seen anyone who's cape is as FIERCE as mine). But what I like to do even more is go to REGULAR old conservative type nightclubs dressed in this type of stuff! you wouldn't believe how much attention you get, or the insane things people say to you. My favorite thing to do is to catch someone staring at me and then say to them "what are YOU looking at, FREAK!".
So I already intended to do this at the mirage anyway. My date will probably have black vinyl and spikes on too. I think I will wait till I am UTG and then straddle-raise when I first enter the game.... (I have made a total of two straddle-raises since I started playing holdem, both were image plays, just like this one!). Then I'm going to reraise myself (it's a live straddle at the mirage) without even looking at my cards! I'll be giving up 1.5 BB, but I have a feeling I will get hella action all night long! Hell, screw the expected value, I would pay 9$ just to see the looks on their faces! It ain't all about money you know.... Then after I make my grand entrance and convince them all that I'm the live one, I will simply play my normal game! Oh' I'll immediately order a drink too, (but then I'll water it down and nurse it for two hours...).
I just love to cause a spectacle...
Dave goin' to vegas march 9th... see you at the mirage! Bring your spikes!
please and FOR THE LOVE OF GOD dont do it untill the 10th when I arrive in vegas
for two reasons
1 I would really like to see that
2 so I can take advantage of the action thats shure to come at your table
I don't want nine 2+2ers at my damn table!!!!! I told you, after the first hand, I am going back to my regular old relatively tight and very aggressive mode! ALL 2+2ERS MUST IDENTIFY THEMSELVES BEFORE ENTERING THE GAME WITH THE DUDE WITH THE CAPE! Obviously it will be easy for you to figure out which one is me.... It will most likely happen on saturday night before the clubs get hott. After dinner but before clubbing!
Remember, If there are nine 2+2ers at my table there won't be much action at my table.... you gotta leave room for the fish!
And if I go to jail I will have to get a laptop to post the action at the mirage next saturday night!
dave in cali (aka super-freak)
save me the seat to your left
I've recently gone broke but during the past few months I ran into this situation a LOT. I would be under the gun with AK and raise. Maybe one caller and then the SB reraises. I call and the flop comes A. I end up losing 3 - 5 big bets to AA.
First, is this likely to happen very often? It came up quite often for me in the last few months. AK vs. KK and catching a K or AK on the flop. AQ vs. KK and catching a flop of Q72. Even KK vs. AA and flop comes AKx. KK vs. AA with a raggedy board. On and on. AQ vs. AK and catching an A on the flop.
That last one is something you have to watch out for but can you really get out of it without SOME kind of loss? You raise from the cutoff and the BB reraises. You call, putting him on a big pair and not fearing AK TOO much. Now you catch that A. How much are you going to lose? You've got to raise the flop, you can't just check and call right? And you certainly aren't going to fold to one bet! What if you cap the flop and then he checks the turn? You will at least bet, and maybe fold to a raise and maybe pay off (depends on the player) but I just don't see how you're going to avoid losing SOMETHING. Once he's dealt AK and you're dealt AQ with an A coming on the flop, fate has decided to screw you. Am I right?
In a limit setting, is there really anything you can do to avoid this or do you just have to accept that you're going to lose money when you catch that K against AA or KK? The nature of limit poker seems to dictate that there's not much you can do except hope this doesn't happen much. Anybody have any insight on this? I seem to have become a magnet for this type of situation.
natedogg
I used to look at these situations as break-even. Out of my hands. Then I started doing one thing a bit differently and now I think I pick up bets here and there, as is save bets, when holding the worst hand.
Generally when a guy three bets before the flop, the hand becomes extra ace-sensative because he either has a good ace or a high pocket pair. Let's say I have A-Q and an ace flops. If behind him, I oftentimes never raise, all the way to the river. Just call. If he checks the river, it means he had the high pair after all, and he will almost always pay off because I didn't posture on the flop. I win 2.5 BB post-flop. If I had raised the flop, and he mucked, I win .5 BB.
If he does have the AK, I lose the absolute minimum short of a psychic laydown, 2.5 BB.
Out of position is of course tougher. I bet out on the flop. I think this is better than check-raising the flop unless you can fold after he smooth calls the flop and raises the turn. The trouble with that is if there is any kind of draw out there, and the player is tough, you just about half to pay off all the way.
Big pair against big pair, again, maybe I go too slowly, but it feels like it's working. If he puts in the 4th bet before the flop, I give him credit for AA or maybe KK and I don't budge from that read. If I have KK and a Queen flops, I'll likely be folding the hand on the turn.
Tough situations, no doubt. I think people run into trouble by getting emotionally charged and attached, a going-to-war mentality, and just start slinging chips. Perhaps it's because I play lots of hours and see many big pairs that I can stay calm. Digressing, this is an advantage that full-timers have, just by virtue of playing a lot.
Tommy
Good post Tommy, I read all youir posts, They are always very good and I always learn from them. Keep them coming. This AA AK question is similar to any other hand, What is the diference? there is always the chance of a higher hand out there. I don't see the problem here. AA AK you just have to play it the best way you know how. Am I correct, Tommy?
Very good post. Was the next to last paragraph a typo where you said " if I have KK and a Q flops I will probably fold on the turn" I don't get that line. I am going to use the rest of your points from now on ;unless I am disappointed with the results.
i took it to mean he was probably against AA or QQ (now QQQ) and would muck KK
Nate rattled off a bunch of situations and I only addressed the two where I thought some bets could be consistently saved. AK vs AQ, and big pair vs big pair. For instance, with AK vs AA and an ace on the flop, it's gonna be expensive, typically three and sometimes four bets between the turn and river combined.
There WAS a typo of sorts, more like an omission. I meant to say that if the other guy four bets preflop, I give him credit for AA, KK, OR MAYBE QQ. So if I have KK and the board comes jack-high or lower, I'll test him again on the flop and if he still likes his hand I'll just call the turn and river, expecting to lose to aces, delighted if he only has queens. If a queen flops, I'll still test the flop, and if he is still confident and reraising, I fold on the turn.
By the way, this adjustment I made at limit comes entirely from playing no-limit where botching these situations is brutal.
A subtle danger with all big pairs is if the other guy three bets with position, he could have ANY pocket pair, so all cards on boards represent a potention set. Another no-limit thing, because typically when aces or kings get busted, it's too a set, because if the big pair makes a move preflop and gets action, the most common hand he's up against is a pair. Same thing at limit, except the three-bet-from- behind-at-limit equals a call-from-behind at no limit.
Tommy
Playing like this: "seeing a sniper behind every tree", how many times do you guys drop the winning hand? This question is made with all do respect to you all.
Is there ever going to be a post from you, in witch you NOT mention your "no limit" experience, to us, poor LL players?
LOL! I'm sorry, really. I can't help it. I got the bug, bad!
But it's really true. No-limit can't help but make one sniper cautious. Probably not good at limit except maybe in the circumstances Nate layed out in this thread.
As to how often I lay down the best hand, that's easy, whenever a reasonable player four bets preflop with a hand that doesn't beat KK when there's a queen on board.
Tommy
This is something I learned from experience as well.
When re-raised preflop it means AA, KK, QQ most of the time. Now I have KK so it's unlikely the other guy has KK or AK (the AK especially since he re-raised. He might have AKs but still unlikely)
If a J high flop comes then my KK is ahead enough times to make calling down profitable.
If a Q comes then it is not profitable to call down since AA or QQQ is very very probable.
You may want to call down if a A hits the board but you are behind the AA and the occasional AK. I think the heads up case when the Ace hits is the tougher descision and of course position is everything at that point.
I'm no pro BUT the answer to how often they lay down the best in this spot is "not very often".
A problem can occur when it is you who has the AA and the flop is capped by the player with the button who is in for 2 bets already.
Now you might expect he has KK or QQ.
Action was: I raised and button calls 2 cold, its re-raised by loose player and I call. Button now re-raises and 4 players see the flop.
Flop is Jack high and it bet by me and button raises which I expected with him having QQ or KK but I now consider JJ. Both other players call and so do I.
On the turn there is a draw and I want it to be 2 BB to any callers. I bet and I am raised again, which I now expect with JJ,QQ,KK. All others fold and I now check call to see the set of J's
I probably could save a bet here or maybe more. Can I fold at any time here or should I have played more passively? More aggressive on the flop and fold the turn when bet into? Maybe just a tough spot to be in?
You are going to lose money with premium hand vrs premimum hand or when you get out-flopped.
But you can lose less money such as when the opponent is conservative but continues to raise. If the opponent 3-bets B4 flop and then 3-bets the flop when an Ace hits, well HEY! he can see that Ace and surely suspects you of having a big Ace yourself.
Louieism: When the opponent asserts himself there is a big difference in the likely quality of the opponents hand between the times he suspects you have little and the times he suspects you have a lot.
- Louie
Louei: you have proven my point. Play it the best way you no how. DS and MM tell you that everything they advise is a guide for playing, not a rule. Some people in this forum are always looking for answers to problems that do not have an answer. I would love to play poker with Jim Brier seating next to me at the table and telling me what to do every step of the way. Like himself, with all his now how, I am sure sometimes doesn't know what to do. This question is no big deal to me. I lose with AA this hand, or AKs, I'll win with 88 next time, I'll flop trip and clean up. Simple. Anybody doesn't agree, straighten me out.
Follow up: The players that ask these kind of questions, I am thinking. are all rocks, and they use this forum to be "harder" rocks. Rocks do not want to lose "ever". They wait for AA. AKs, for hours, and when they get it, they can't understand why they lose."Please , tell me what to do, so I don't lose with my big cards". Rocks are no good pocker players. They will never be. If you are a rock, you will die a rock. I played this hand just last night against two rocks, and I'm still enjoying it. I'm BB with 92d, UTG raises (one rock), middle position reraises (Second rock), two more callers, I call the raises, and then UTG caps it. Big pot. I am sure facing AA. KK, AK, or similar with my 92d. The flop comes A 6 K, all diamonds! I got a good flop, not as good as 999, but I was happy. To make the story short, the two rocks raise and reraise each other till they run out of chips, I called all the way and won with my flush. They had AA an AK, no diamond. Turn and river didn't matter. My point is, do not worry about the exact sience of poker, is like Louei says, depends like the other player feel about you. In this hand I am discribing, I felt that I really wanted to play this hand, may be the next 99 times I will fold, but who knows, then I may not. Now you try to figure it out, what is the best way to play A K agains AA, I am not going to be here to know the results, I will be in the Casino trying to improve my play. Please forgive my spelling, I Know is terrible. If anybody does not agree with my opinions, please straighten me out. I want to be a winner poker player.
If you really want to be a winner don't relish this hand too much.There will be several times you flop a 4 flush and pay all the way and don't hit, or hit and lose.You may flop a pair or 2 and lose. Poker is probability and hand reading skill.If you want to convince yourself, just imagine that 9d2d hand is yours and follow it through and see how much you would have lost on the next 100 hands dealt.
If you want to the winning player then do not call 2 bets cold with 92s.
It is very simple.
You want to be a winner? You might rethink your views towards rocks since they are the ones counting your money at home. You know what they say, if you can't join 'em, beat 'em.
Tommy
In the previous post I meant to write the expected, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." Somehow it came out backwards, and it still makes a twisted sort of sense if "beat'em" means, "throw verbal rocks at the rocks."
Tommy
It makes sense from the "tough" player POV. You can't "join them" regarding the 92s players. You're only choice is to "beat them".
In "Zen and the Art of Poker" there is a method by which you can lose less with AK.
When up against a tough opponent and you are raised and you have such a holding you simply fold. Your expectation with this hand against a very good player like yourself is negligable. Let it go.
Does it make sense? Maybe. I'm sure there are lots of views on this.
Note: this does not advocate folding such hands to weaker players or folding hands such as QQ,KK and AA.
I have two questions regarding early postion play in Hold 'em. If you could shed some light on this it would be much appreciated.
Your advanced text suggests that I reraise with Group I & II hands against a loose raiser (in addition to a few other hands) in early position. In a typical game, what do you suggest I do if I have no reason to believe that the raiser has loose standards? I know I should limit my play to the first two hand groupings but which ones should I reraise with?
Secondly, if I am in the third seat to the left of the big blind and the pot has been raised and reraised (again in a typical game) which hands should I play? Which hands should I make it 4 bets with?
I would 3 bet with AA,KK,QQ, and AK suited against an unknown early position raiser.
If the pot is raised and re-raised to you and you are in early or middle position, you should make it 4 bets with AA or KK. You should call with QQ or AK suited. I would fold everything else.
The above applies to typical middle limit games against unknown opponents. You may well vary from this depending upon the type of game and specific knowledge of your opponents who are raising.
Are there any hands you just call with here? I mean with the exception of the small percentage of times you might call with AA or KK in a tight game to trip the utg player.
How do you feel about JJ or 1010 or AKo
It seems to me that maybe it would be better to 3 bet AKo while calling with AKs makes more sense than just calling with AKo as you don't mind a few callers.
I would call with JJ and TT since there are a fair number of raising hands I can beat with these two holdings but there are also a large number of holdings where I am a big dog. AK is on the cusp. I like to 3 bet if I am suspicious of the raiser and I think I can isolate him. The problem with 3 betting slick is that the raiser can have cards you need to improve and you normally have to improve to win. If undercards flop, you have trouble getting away from the hand when the pot has been re-raised.
One could argue that with AK suited you should just call and not re-raise since you want players in and not out. The reason I like to 3 bet with AK suited is to camouflage the times when I 3 bet with AA,KK, or QQ and so my opponent cannot always put me on an overpair in a re-raised pot.
"If the pot is raised and re-raised to you and you are in early or middle position, you should make it 4 bets with AA or KK. You should call with QQ or AK suited. I would fold everything else."
Which additional hands, if any, can be played in this scenario from late position?
Thanks so much for your advice.
"Which additional hands, if any, can be played in this scenario from late position?
If you have to ask this question you do not understand enough about playing holdem to put any answer that Sklansky may give you into practice. This may sound a little sarcastic but it's not. It is the best advice or most useful comment anyone on this forum will give you when you ask this type of question. My guess is that Sklansky will come up with an answer that is in line with what is in HPFAP. That would be fine if you were an advanced player or close but I doubt that you are given this question. Even the advice given above for early and midlle position is general advice and cannot be applied routinely in all situations. You may alwyas make it 4 bets with A,A but not K,K and you may even consider not making it 4 bets with A,A in some extreme cases.
The answer to your question is very difficult at best to answer. The general rule is that the later position that the raise comes from the more hands you can play. However, when it is 3 bets to you, regardless of position you must proceed very cautiously. You probably should not vary from the early to middle advice above unless you have a good feel for the players making the raises and understand why they make them.
vince
Think of my question as the equivalent of asking an experienced driver how to drive down the street. Jim's response would be the equivalent of telling me to stay to the right. Obviously that advice does not prepare me for driving but if I am going to drive anyway it may keep me from having a head-on collision. This is much more useful than someone giving a detailed explanation of how combustion engines work and sending me off down the left side of the road.
"This is much more useful than someone giving a detailed explanation of how combustion engines work and sending me off down the left side of the road. "
Is that how you view the advice I offered? If so I'm sorry. Feel free to disregard. Besides from your analogy above I believe that you understand that advice given here or anywhere for that matter must be scrutinized and adapted for your own use.
Vince
I hope I didn't offend you with my reply, I realize you were simply trying to help me. I wasn't referring to your advice with my analogy. In the past I have seen many simple questions from new players answered with sarcasm and condescension from the gallery of "experts" but I would not put your reply in that category and in fact found it very helpful.
I did, however, get the feeling that you underestimate my self-awareness. Just because I am reading HEFAP doesn't mean I fancy myself an expert. I'm sure the two authors would hate to pay back all the money they have made off of new players who bought their book having little chance of ever grasping the material. I know I am not an advanced player, I know my question is naive in it's simplicity, and I was grateful to Jim for looking past all that and giving me a short and simple answer that didn't start with "it depends..."
I was simply seeking some general guidelines that would help keep me from making costly mistakes so I might save some money and have a better chance of staying in the game long enough to gain the necessary experience that might help me understand the game well enough to grasp the advanced concepts that are the framework for all of the many exceptions to the general guidelines that I was seeking.....whew.
"a better chance of staying in the game long enough to gain the necessary experience that might help me understand the game well enough to grasp the advanced concepts"
I believe this is exactly what I was alluding to with my previous comments. I may not have put it in the right perspective or explained myself very well but I was trying to say that experience is key to understanding the advanced concepts in HPFAP. They were developed through experience and thought but proven through experience alone. If you have posted here as long as I have you will know that many posters have questioned whether one can truly win at poker. They have read all the books and know the concepts inside and out but still don't seem to be able to win. I believe that they have not given the concepts the time necessary to prove there worth. For instance, the answer to the question you asked about how many more hands can you add if you are in late position can have a negative effect on your game if you are not careful. Well the answer can't have a negative effect but the implimentation of the advice can especailly by a novice. That's one of the reason's I recommended not adding any hands to those listed until you really understand your opponents. I believe that throughout HPFAP the theme is "know your opponents". I believe this is the most improtant aspect of playing poker.
Well I'm not going there anymore. I believe I mispoke the first time I responded to you. I wasn't questioning your self awareness. Although after rethinking what I wrote it sure does appear that way. I'll tey and be more careful in the future although I'm sure I'll be just me. I'm that way you know.
Good Luck.
Vince
" I'll try and be more careful in the future although I'm sure I'll be just me. I'm that way you know."
Good old Vince!
Another one alienated.
In a typical, full-tabled, middle limit hold'em game against sane opponents when an early player raises and another early player re-raises, it really does not matter what your position is at that point. Being in middle position or late position does not alter the fact that you are most likely up against a big overpair and/or at least AK in most cases. Therefore, the calling and 4 betting requirements are unchanged at that point.
Now some players would argue that if you are in late position and others players are calling the 3 bets cold, then you can play a suited connector and even a small or medium pocket pair since you are getting the large, multi-handed action that these hands require. They would also argue that you do not have to worry about domination and you can get away from the hand easily if the flop does not hit you hard. But I don't agree with any of this. Your implied odds get ruined when you let yourself get taken for a 3,4, or 5 bet ride to take a flop with a suited connector or a small/medium pocket pair. Bottom line is that it really does not matter what the rest of the field is flying around with in re-raised pots. You need to have a quality holding to get involved.
Good point, Jim.
Mike.
Jim,
You wrote: "Now some players would argue that if you are in late position and others players are calling the 3 bets cold, then you can play a suited connector and even a small or medium pocket pair since you are getting the large, multi-handed action that these hands require."
It depends on the type of opponents you are up against. If you are at a tight table against solid opponents, you might want to dump JTs pre-flop in those rare instances when a raising war breaks out among seven of your opponents. If you are at a loose-aggressive table where seven of your opponents constantly stay in to see the flop after it has been capped pre-flop, you probably will treasure that same JTs.
You wrote: "They would also argue that you do not have to worry about domination and you can get away from the hand easily if the flop does not hit you hard."
First, they should argue that you ought to be *less* worried about domination when you are involved in multi-way pots at loose-aggressive tables.
Second, if you have a difficult time throwing away -EV hands after the flop, then you indeed might want to restrict which hands you get involved with pre-flop (or improve your ability to throw away losers after the flop).
You wrote: "But I don't agree with any of this."
I believe this is one of your blind spots. But if you don't play in loose-aggressive games very often, it should have less of an effect on your EV.
You wrote: "Your implied odds get ruined when you let yourself get taken for a 3,4, or 5 bet ride to take a flop with a suited connector or a small/medium pocket pair."
First, if you have the right hand and the right number of opponents, then you don't need implied odds to justify getting involved. As the number of opponents increases, you don't need to win as often. Against seven opponents, for example, I wouldn't mind being all-in for five bets before the flop with JTs.
Second, your implied odds normally do not get "ruined" when you have many opponents in the pot with you. If I flop a set with 55 against seven opponents, for instance, I usually will win a lot of extra bets on the flop, turn, and river. That is pretty healthy implied odds. If I aggressively contribute five pre-flop bets with 55 against a single opponent, then I usually have done some serious damage to my implied odds. Do you see the difference?
You wrote: "Bottom line is that it really does not matter what the rest of the field is flying around with in re-raised pots."
I beg to differ. It really does matter, at least if you are trying to improve your EV.
You wrote: "You need to have a quality holding to get involved."
You need to have a quality holding for the given situation. In certain situations, JTs and 55 are worth investing five bets pre-flop.
"In certain situations, JTs and 55 are worth investing five bets pre-flop."
How about giving an example where it is correct to call five bets cold with 5,5? In my experience the only place this would even be close to correct is in a no foldem holdem game. I don't believe discussion of no foldem holdem belongs on this forum. That should be done on the beginners forum. Just my opinion.
vince
Vince,
Earlier, I wrote: "Second, your implied odds normally do not get 'ruined' when you have many opponents in the pot with you. If I flop a set with 55 against seven opponents, for instance, I usually will win a lot of extra bets on the flop, turn, and river. That is pretty healthy implied odds. . . . In certain situations, JTs and 55 are worth investing five bets pre-flop."
You asked: "How about giving an example where it is correct to call five bets cold with 5,5?"
If you reread my post, I think you might find one such example.
You also wrote: "In my experience the only place this would even be close to correct is in a no foldem holdem game."
Perhaps you already had reread my post.
You wrote: "I don't believe discussion of no foldem holdem belongs on this forum. That should be done on the beginners forum."
I got the impression that Roger Songster is relatively new to casino poker. Apparently you did as well. If that is the case, then Roger is much more likely to run into loose-aggressive no-fold'em hold'em games than he is to run into a situation where a relatively tight table with solid opponents breaks into a multi-way raising war.
Jim Brier's advice about multi-way situtations seems geared more towards the rare situation rather than the more common no-fold'em situation. I felt it would be helpful to let Roger (and other forum readers) know that the two different situations require different types of play.
Roger posted this thread on this forum, so I answered it on this forum. If some deputy forum cop doesn't like me doing so, then that's too bad. I'll continue to try to help posters on this forum, even if, in your opinion, my replies belong on another forum.
So you were referring to no foldem Holdem. o.K. so each of can be happy knowing we were both correct. You in referring to me as "some deputy forum cop" and me ... well I'm always happy anyway so it doesn't matter why in this case. By the way, I have enough trouble reading trying to read your posts one time I try extra hard not to "reread" them.
vince
Just a thought, but would AKs prefer a multiway pot more than AKo. If that's the case I would prefer to three bet with AKo more than AKS. By the way, I three bet an unknown early position raiser with a few more hands than this.
"By the way, I three bet an unknown early position raiser with a few more hands than this."
Me too.
vince
Hey Tommy,
I just read your article about the asking to see hands rule. I mostly agree with it except for one thing.
"Much writing . . . a fair and pleasant place. IWTSTH allows, . . . bad for poker, present and future."
You are right, it is bad etiquette, sometimes rude, but what about the players who don't know any better? And what about the new comers who are curious about the game and how other people play?
A lot of people on the rail and even in the game like to see the show down in the end, especially when they are still learning the game. They play a hand, they are raised out by two battling players and they just want to know what raised them off their gut shot draw. It seems as if they don't care whether or not someone does NOT WANT to show it, by the rule, they have a right, and no one can really complain.
I play in Louisiana mostly and IWTSTH abounds, often, more than one player asking at the end. I can't stand it, I cringe whenever I have to show a hand I didn't want to, but when an inexperienced player asks, what can you do? You can't educate him on proper etiquette because it won't sit well with them as they currently have the right to do it and can't see the wrong.
There are numerous more experienced players who use this as a tactical weapon, and some who use it just to upset someone. This is obviously abuse of the rule.
As far as stopping collusion-I agree, IWTSTH does not help. There is a poker room in Louisiana that sometimes appears to have collusion when a few of the off-work dealers get at the same table, catching their victims between them with a good hand, but since only one makes it to the showdown, IWTSTH is capable of stopping it, just like you said.
But how do you educate the masses of the new players who see asking as part of the game? Most of the people who ask would respond exactly as you stated, "To see how the other person plays." But it seems, coming from the inexperienced player, that he/she doesn't know any better.
Tommy missed one variation of the rule. In the Top Section at Bellagio, a tourist can say IWTSTH but a regular cannot. Once after being whipsawed, I folded and the two other players checked it down. I said I wanted to see both hands, and the Floorman, a woman in this case, was called to decide if I was a tourist. She decided not, and I never got to see the hands.
One of the biggest problems with this rule is when you try to bluff me on the river, and I call. You then throw your cards in the muck and say IWTSTH. I either have to show it or pull a Badger, jump up and push them in the muck. (just kidding, I don't think he really did that. But I have seen several other players do it).
Thanks for telling me about the Bellagio, even though I already knew about it. That's exactly the type of feedback I'm on the lookout for. The reasons I left the Bellagio's rule out of the article are:
1) The section in the article on variations is there only to show that the community is already willing to modify the rule for the sole purpose of reducing abuse. Two non-specific-casino examples were enough because I'm hyper about wasted space and words.
2) I'm collecting specific cases where casinos have already elliminated or drastically modified the rule. I plan to list the casinos and their rules, including the Bellagio's, in a follow-up work.
Tommy
without knowing about this thread.
"But how do you educate the masses of new players who see asking as part of the game?"
First I tried talking. Now I'm trying writing. :-)
Tommy
"First I tried talking. Now I'm trying writing."
Talk about fuzzy thinking. :-}
One quick story: one guy plays every hand, often raising with crap. Fairly new player to the game, asking to see his hand, profers, "I want to see how you play" as an excuse for asking. Maniac responds, "I'm a f***ing maniac, completely on tilt. What the hell do you expect to learn?"
John
Here's something that happened to me recently. I limped on the button behind several limpers with QsJc. Flop came Ts-9s-2h. UTG, a complete novice, bet out. There was one call and I raised. Both players called. Turn was Ad. UTG bet out again and was called. The player on my right, not in the hand, laughed and jokingly said to me, now what are you going to do? Of course I was going to call, but I looked at my cards and in doing so I let him see them.
The river was a blank, UTG bet out again and was called and I folded my busted draw. Before my cards went into the muck another player not involved in the hand told the dealer not to muck my cards, he wanted to see them. The floorman was called over and the ruling was that since I had let my neighbor see my cards, all were entitled to see them, even though I did not call the river bet.
I later asked the player who had asked to see my cards what was his reason for doing so. He said he had no reason, he just felt like it. This was a smaller game than I normally play in and, to the best of my recollection, I had never played with either my neighbor, the man who asked to see my cards, or any of the participants in the hand.
although I despise being asked to show my cards (what can I say? I have issues.), in this case the player had every right to see your cards. It would be unfair to give another player information not available to all at the table.
...a fair rule IMO. And another reason not to show anyone your hand unless you must..
As a wanna be "creative, deceptive, imaginative" player I will show hands on a selective basis only to set up a hand later on.
One way to do this is to show your neighbor if there is a "show one show all" guy in the game.
Is that angle shooting??? I don't think so.
Funny story.
Years ago in an limit-Omaha hi-only home game,(a mutant game if there ever was one),a brand new player sat next to me and kept showing me his cards. On one hand he bet the river and everyone folded. He pinched his cards carefully so that only two were visible, and showed me the two cards. He had the nuts.
Someone said, "SHOW ONE SHOW ALL!"
And here comes the delightful part. The new player interpreted this to mean, "Show the OTHER two cards to Tommy." So he spread the other two cards and showed them to me without showing anyone else.
Tommy
I have a similar story: At a private game, we had a dealer who was young and cute, but not real bright or experienced. On one of her first nights, one of the players said, "Squared the table, Dealer". She looked around at the table, move her chair a few inches to the left, and resumed dealing.
never heard tell of that one myself 3 bet, what does it mean?
hillbilly- when asked by a waitress once how do I like my eggs, I replied, I like em' fine!
When the waitress asks me how I like me eggs, I tell her how do I know, I haven't got 'em yet.
"Square the table" means rearrange the player's seats so that every chair is where it should be: middle position player exactly 180 degree opposite the dealer.
Eventually I will post a poll in the General Theory section on IWTSTH. Looking forward to your replies.
Tommy
Is any situation when after the flop it is correct to fold the AA,AKs, KK or AKx?
Yes. You raise under the gun pre-flop and everyone calls. The flop is: 987 all of one suit. You bet and it gets raised, re-raised, and capped back to you with 6 players in the hand. You should fold. Obviously this is an extreme example but there are others where the board is highly coordinated, you have lots of opponents, and there is serious heat getting applied on the flop. You must fold since you are frequently dead to perfect-perfect.
I think you should give some indication on how often you dump AK (suited and offsuit) postflop. Your analysis is better than mine so I'll let you elaborate. I think your above post discusses AA and KK situations, but I believe it is FREQUENTLY correct to throw AK into the muck postflop when it misses. Just my two cents.
You are correct. There are a lot more situations where you will dump AK on the flop. If the flop has missed you completely and there are a large number of opponents (4 or more) it is frequently correct to check and fold slick when the flop gets bet. AK is a very different situation and flopping overcards is much weaker than flopping an overpair.
On Feb. 2, 2001, at 6:34 a.m. I posted: I quit poker today. Today I am playing 5-10 HE. I am new to the table and get red aces in middle pos. Pre-flop two limp to me, I raise, and two callers to my left. SB and BB fold. 5 players total in the hand. The flop is: 7c 8c 9s. UTG comes out betting with "gusto" and the player next to my right calls. I fold and I hope is clear to everyone why. The two players to my left also called. I am looking at the flop and I feel good about my drop. The next card is the ace of spade, I don't like to see that card but I see another flush posibility, and I still think my drop was OK. Trips don't beat astraight or a flush. UTG bets, they all call. River card is the 7h. Now I am upset. UTG bets and the guy to my right calls, the other two fold. He shows 8c 4d, the caller folds, and doesn't show his cards, probably he had a pair of sixes or lower. UTG was a young player and I don't think he really knew how to play this game. I gave everyone too much credit and I am sick about it. I need somebody to tell me that I played this hand correctly, otherwise, I quit poker today. I mean it.
Your answer to this post was, same date, at 3:06 p.m.:
Beginner, you are definetely playing psyched out pocker right now. A flop raise is mandatory with your big over pair and a large pot like this despite the sca ry board. You can certainly fold if a blank comes on the turn and you get serious heat. Take a month off, and then drop down to a $2-$4 game or the cheapest game you can find. Play 100 hours and see where you are at and how you feel.
Jim: please tell us, what difference you see in these two examples, and please don't tell us that my flop was was not all of the same suit, beacause then I really quit playing poker.
P/s.: This was the response from Mason Malmuth, same date, at 2:02 p.m.:
Hey, you played the hand great, so don't quit. But next time you could play the hand better by realizing that if the initial bettor had flop a straight he may have been more inclined to check to the original raiser and would wait to fourth street to get his raise in.
Vaseline: I sugest that you read my post and all the answers to it from Friday, 2 February 2001, at 6:34 a.m.
Oh no. Not the Mason's motives post again.
Ahhhhh.
Now I QUIT poker today!
8-)
The difference is:
Your case. Single bet to you. A raise may get the players behind to fold and the hand will be 3-way.
Jims case: The bet comes re-raised to you (3 bets).
AND the board has 3 of the same suit but that would not matter if you had to call 3 bets 6 handed.
Regards Mike N
BTD, I agree.
(n/t)
beginner,
Your fold was an ok fold. It wasn't a great play, but it didn't hurt your bottom line by much. Sometimes you read the situation wrong. It happens. You probably were against a bunch of draws, and had pot equity of less than 50% on the flop.
Just roll with these kind of punches. It happens. It's happened to all of us.
- Andrew
Of course there are.
First of all, if you have AK and the flop misses you and 7 people are in the hand then check and fold.
If there are not that many times when it would be appropriate to fold AA on the flop but there most definitely are a few.
Lets say you have AsAc and raise in mid position. You get 3 callers including the button and the BB.
Flop comes T98 all hearts. The BB is a very obvious player and bets. You raise. The button, a trickier player who will play draws very aggressively, reraises. But now the button - the obvious playing opponent - caps it. You should definitely fold.
-SmoothB-
What about a flop of:
QsJsJc
And you are holding: AhAd
Checked to you, raise, call, reraise, call before it gets back to you.
I'd probably have a hard time laying it down, but there's probably very few outs, and none you can rely on 100%. The few times you are still ahead, you opponents have quite a number of outs against you, put together.
lars
I'm probably stating the obvious, but I'd be pretty quick to dump K-K when an A comes on the flop, especially if there are a lot of players still in.
Of course, none of these questions can be answered in a vacuum, you have to consider what kind of players you're up against, what they did pre-flop, etc.
With ace-king I think the most important thing is not how many players are in, but where they are.
With two or more behind me, I tend to check and fold. But if I'm last and the next to last guy bets, I'm just as likely to raise as to fold, depending on the flop and the players. In the post-flop-cutoff-seat, I'll do the same thing, a bit less often, depending on the vibes from the last player.
Tommy
I don't normally fold AA, but here's a hand where I did exactly that. I opened with a raise from early middle position, and got two cold callers and the small blind. The flop and turn came QT93 rainbow. I lead both rounds, and were were down to three players going into the river. The river came an 8, giving any jack a straight. The small blind lead, and I folded with one player behind me to act.
I simply couldn't conceive that I was only an 8:1 underdog to have the best hand at that point. I was not only worried about a straight, but the many possible two pairs that were out there, as well as a possible rivered set. The player who lead was a solid player who also knows how to read the board, and probably wouldn't bluff in this situation. So I folded. The small blind held JTo, the other player held QJo.
- Andrew
After 680 hours of playing $3-6 HE, I have a standard deviation of 91.86, about 15.3 bb/hr.
This sounds awfully high.
However, nearly all of these hours were accumulated playing two tables at a time on the internet, being dealt hands at a conservatively estimated rate of 60 per hour per table, or 120 hands per hour total. My per hand std is therefore about $0.77. If converted this to one-table casino play at 40 hands per hour, my std is only $30, or 5 bb/hr.
This sounds awfully low, particularly since I might be a tad aggressive.
So what is it?
Chris
Wow, that does sound high. I only have about a third of your time recorded. My stdev for $3-6 is 57.53 and has seemed to level off after a high of ~62.00. Playing online has actually brought my stdev down. I believe this has happened because I can play quite a few more short sessions of about 1.5 to 3.5 hrs.
SD increases with the square root of hands played, while variance increases linearly.
So, for 15.3 bb/hr and 120 hands/hr, your variance per hand is (15.3)^2/120 = 1.95, and your SD is 1.95^.5 = 1.40 bb/hand.
So for 30 hands an hour: 1.4 * 30^.5 = 7.65 BB/hr.
This is still pretty low (are you sure that you are playing two tables _all the time_ ?) but its a little better.
If I made a mistake, I'd be glad to hear about it.
Zooey
x
Zooey:
Thanks for clarifying this. More than 95% of the hours are two table play.
Chris
You standard deviation is *not* too high. Mine online SD is 17 BB/(hr*table). I segregate my results on a per-table basis, so my total SD in BB/hr would be a bit bigger.
- Andrew
I have to admit: these figures differ substantially from what I was expecting.
FOR a total of 5 players seeing a flop containing any pair, the probability is 1 - (47/49 x 46/48 x ... x 39/41 x 38/40) or 37% that at least one player holds a card of the same rank as the open pair.
FOR a total of 6 players seeing a flop containing any pair, the probability is 1 - (47/49 x 46/48 x ... x 37/39 x 36/38) or 43.3% that at least one player holds a card of the same rank as the open pair.
FOR a total of 9 players seeing a flop containing any pair, the probability is 1 - (47/49 x 46/48 x ... x 31/33 x 30/32) or 60.5% that at least one player holds a card of the same rank as the open pair.
when the flop contains a high pair, it should be obvious that at least one player will hold a card of that rank far more frequently than these results for random combinations would indicate. also, in low-limit games, when the flop contains a low pair, at least one player will hold a card of that rank more frequently than one would generally find to be the case in high-limit games, even though the probability will be much less than average at both levels.
pre-flop, of course, certain hands tend to be selected for and certain hands tend to be selected against. the existence of the blinds, however, insures that certain combinations which would routinely be selected against sometimes get a chance "to prove themselves." so, while the above figures need to be skewed upwards when high pairs flop and downwards when low pairs flop, randomness will always play its part.
after setting aside a flop of 995rainbow, I dealt out nine hands, two of which I let be the blinds, and then I chose the best four from the remaining seven. I dealt out 100 hands and 47 times a 9 appeared in one of the six hands. this is slightly higher than the 43% theory predicts employing strictly random combinations.
I think I'm beginning to comprehend what might very well be happening in actual play, in low-limit, when a pair flops. when there is minimal action, and someone has bet a flop and wins outright or with little resistance, this person has usually either paired the third card in the flop or is bluffing but has seldom caught trips. when there is lots of action, with several calls of a flop bet, and a raise after the flop and/or after the turn, someone usually has the goods.
"this person has usually either paired the third card in the flop or is bluffing but has seldom caught trips"
This is the logical conclusion and probably true at Low limits. At mid limits it is not true. The reason that it is not true is because most players at mid limits are a bit more sophisticated when they play. They aware of this and have made adjustments. That's not to say that they are not "usually" betting the third card pair but they are also betting the set especially if it is small.
Vince
Vince:
what I'm getting at, and I hope to corroborate with some numbers later today, is that at low-limit when plenty of players see the flop, then perhaps one can legitimately hit the eject button if holding an overpair based upon the amount of action the flop generates. one wouldn't often be justified in doing this at the level you play at because, first of all, less players on average see the flop, and, secondly, when the flop contains a lowish pair, even with more pre-flop callers than average, most of these players have selected high-card combos, low pairs, medium-ranked pairs, or medium-ranked connectors. and a pre-flop raise would tend to further eliminate hands with low-low and many low-high combos, including, of course, the blinds. raises in low-limit don't have the same "housecleaning" effect.
notice that when a flop includes a pair, there are two less combinations available to provide someone with a straight draw (a + c as opposed to a + b, a + c, b + c) and one less combo available to provide someone with a flush draw (a + c, b + c as opposed to a + b, a + c, b + c). so, even in low-limit, there will be far fewer draws being pursued and even normally loose players with overcards tend to release them (correctly) fearing trips. in other words, there is far more "attrition" in these situations than when flops appear without a pair. and this means that, when several hands remain to see the turn, at least one of these has usually hit the flop hard.
Not only do your numbers imply that the eject button should be used more often, they also give us a better idea of what's happening mathematically when we bluff at paired boards.
How about sharing the same stat for all possibilies, two players through ten?
Tommy
Tommy,
I'll work on that. I'm also working on flops with a single ace (see above). it's beginning to look like Ax is stronger than I thought ONCE an ace flops. may just prove useful when forced to limp from the big blind or for Axsuited postflop gymnastics.
I wonder if someone can employ Turbo HE or some other "computer assistant" to simulate realgame pre-flop selections. my 100-trial experiment was inadequate if reassuring.
"I wonder if someone can employ Turbo HE or some other "computer assistant" to simulate realgame pre-flop selections."
Some will try but they will fail.
vince
A minor point: the percentages you post represent the _maximum_ chance of an opponent having trips. If preflop your opponents will throw away any hands containing that rank, the percentages drop.
The percentages drop right along with the percent chance your opponents, on average, would fold preflop a hand containing one of that rank. In some tight games the chances of an opponent having a full house exceeds the chances of an opponent having trips for any flop 22x, 33x, or 44x, for example.
Tommy, I'll post the numbers for you, but it'll cost you the usual 1 BB (1 big beer). :)
Matt,
these percentages were generated using random distributions. they will slide down and up. when AAx flops, and there are numerous pre-flop callers, then the chance of someone holding an ace will be much higher because hands with aces are heavily "selected for."
A) let's say you are in the big blind with T2 and the flop comes TT6. you have 4 opponents. how likely is it that someone else holds a T?
if the other cards were randomly distributed, then the answer would be 1 - (46/47 x 45/46 x ... x 40/41 x 39/40) or 18%.
all things being equal, but with 5 opponents:
1 - (46/47 x 45/46 x ... x 38/39 x 37/38) = 21.3%.
and with 6 opponents:
1 - (35/47) = 25.5 %.
B) if you were involved in a low-limit game with 8 other players and everyone of those other players ALWAYS saw the flop when they held at least one ace, regardless of pre-flop raises, and you held A2 in the big blind, and there were a total of 6 players who saw a flop of AJ5, how often would at least one other player be holding an ace?
1 - (39/41 x 38/40 x ... x 31/33 x 30/32) = 43.3%
B.1) same as in B, but you hold A7 and you know that no one else but you ever raises with AK, AQ, etc. before the flop, suited or not. how often will your 7 be a deficient kicker after the flop?
(I'm assuming anyone who held AA would have raised preflop.)
if you held A7, then, when exactly one other player held an ace, 57.8% of the time you will be outkicked.
however, it is possible that 2 other players will be holding an ace (18.2% x 43.3% = 7.9% ). if you are not outkicked by one player holding an ace, then 59.1% of the time you will be outkicked by the other player. 59.1% x 7.9% = 4.7%.
the total, then, becomes 62.5%, when at least one other player holds an ace.
but someone else won't be holding an ace 55.7% of the time. 62.5% x 44.3% = 27.7%.
make that 56.7% and it should be 62.5% x 43.3% = 27.1%. I'm trying to be meticulous but certain key numbers may resemble one another; also, I'm posting all this as soon as it's completed (while the nuances are still fresh in mind).
scratch the above and scroll upwards for more recent calculations.
Hi! guys,
Where can I read some material of how to compute the Standard Deviation in TH? I would be very appreciative if one knowledgeable guy on here will clear this for me. I would like to know step by step in details the way to calculate the StDv.
Love
Yasmine Bleeth
Mason is a very knowledgeable guy. He gives a lovely explanation of how to calculate standard deviation in his beautiful book Gambling Theory and Other Topics. I've never seen a more thorough discussion StDv anywhere.
Love and kisses,
Tori
. . . you can just buy the StatKing software from Conjelco (link on this website), it will compute std automatically using the formula in Mason's book, which will save you the trouble of setting up a spreadsheet.
Although the book is definitely worth reading.
Using Excel and Mason Malmuth example from his Essay "Calculating Your Standard deviation". =================================================================
Enter in A1 "Session" in B1 "Results" and in C1 "Time"
Enter in cels A2 to A11 the sessions numbers (i.e. 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
Enter in cels B2 to B11 the results in $units (i.e. +48 +249 -71 +398 -173 -88 +301 +97 +229 -118)
Enter in cels C2 to C11 the time (i.e. 3.5 6.0 4.5 7.5 2.5 4.0 5.5 1.5 4.0 3.5)
Now, go to cel A15 and enter the following formula:
=SQRT((1/A11)*(SUM(B2^2)/C2+SUM(B3^2)/C3+SUM(B4^2)/C4+SUM(B5^2)/C5+SUM(B6^2)/C6+SUM(B7^2)/C7+SUM(B8^2)/C8+SUM(B9^2)/C9+SUM(B10^2)/C10+SUM(B11^2)/C11)-((SUM(B2:B11)/SUM(C2:C11))^2/A11)*SUM(C2:C11))
This will calculate the Standard deviation for 10 sessions with the data from Mason Malmuth essay "Computing Your Standard Deviation"
Love You!
Your Admirer
Yasmine,
Darling, Standard Deviation is not a Texas Holdem variaiton. It is the mean divided by the ... oh forget it! I'm jus bein silly. But I do love your name, Yasmine. Now if you could only...
Vince
Any Pair from AA to 22
If Suited then:
If A or K involved then go all the way down to 2.
If Q or J involved then any gap of 3 or less.
If T,9,8 or 7 involved any gap of 2 or less.
If 6,5 or 4 involved any gap of 1 or less.
If 3 involved then no gap allowed.
============================================
If Unsuited then:
If A,K or Q involved go down to 9
If J,T or 9 involved go down to 8
If 8,7,6 or 5 no gap allowed
============================================
Just a Friend
Follow this link to find the answer to your question.
I wonder if Mason has learned any HTML yet?
I am in a very loose relatively passive low limit kill game. I am in the BB with Ac6c (no kill). 6 limp and the SB raises, I call, all call, 7 way action.
Flop is Kd 6h 2c. SB bets and I call. I think this call is somewhat questionable because I basically have middle pair and one overcard, plus a backdoor flush draw (albeit to the nuts), but since the SB raised, my two pair outs are suspect as an ace may give him aces and kings and me aces and sixes. AND - It might get raised, there are still 5 players left to act. However, I called pretty quickly before I really thought it all out. Too late, now I am in the pot. 2 more call and the rest fold.
Turn is the 6h. Well, what the hey, I got lucky. Now I will play it like I got it. SB bets and I raise. both flop callers cold call again and the SB folds.
River is the Ad. I bet, one calls and the other folds. Full boat wins a big pot.
Despite the result, I probably made a bad play on the flop by calling. Comments welcome.
Dave in Cali
With 15 small bets in the pot, I would call every time with middle pair, an Ace overcard, and a backdoor nut flush draw. Your 5 outer is an 8:1 shot and your current pot odds are almost twice that. This is a huge overlay. Furthermore, the board is rainbow and uncoordinated. Your backdoor nut draw is equivalent to an extra out (according to Roy Cooke) making calling even clearer. Your overlay more than covers the times when your outs are not clean. Have no regrets.
In the above scenario. Say the 6 nor A nor suit hits. Do you stay for a bet then?
Ok so the 6 misses, the ace misses, but the suit gets there....same ?....do pot odds justify it? I dunno. We're still speaking of on the turn only. Obviously once we make a hand we know what to do.
I guess the turn with no help is the one that gets people screwed up. I usually muck at this point.
Am I playing too tight when I muck bottom pair on the flop in above?
What about pocket pair 2 overcards on the board?
With price of calling having doubled, you would need several things to justify playing on with your 5 outer. There should be around 16 small bets in the pot since it is costing you a double bet to chase your 8:1 shot. You need to have some reasonable assurance that the pot will not get raised since paying 4 small bets to see the river destroys your pot odds. You also need to be quite certain that you will win the pot if you hit one of your 5 outs. In general, you should usually fold on the turn since not all of these conditions will be met.
If you catch the nut flush draw on the turn, the pot odds will usually be there to justify going for your flush.
You are not necessarily playing too tight mucking bottom pair on the flop but it depends upon what your side card is. If it is an overcard to the board, then it may be right to take off a card and see the turn since you still have 5 outs.
If you have a pocket pair and two overcards flop, it is almost never right to try and take off a card. You are playing two outs which is a 23:1 shot and the pot odds are normally not there.
I agree with Jim. heck, SB could easily have raised with KJsuited. good call.
I guess this was a Valentine's Day deck of cards with extra hearts.
I don't think you made a poor call: You flopped middle pair with a back door flush draw. I would assume any A or 6, so with the back door draw you have 6 outs. There is 14 SB in the pot before the flop. With the bet you are getting 15:1 to call and you have 41:6 to hit. You only need about 7:1 to make a good call. Even if it is raised you are getting 7:1.
just my opinion
Derrick
The pot is too big and your hand "too" likely to be the better hand to fold. Raising is better than calling except when the SB is a very selective raiser AND is likely to check the flop if he missed.
Notice that while it sure looks like one of the callers had a big King, the SB in fact did not.
- Louie
What I’m doing wrong here? ~ My 74 Starting Hands
Any Pair from AA to 22 (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22) = 13 total
Any Pair bellow 9 we are looking to flop a SET else FOLD if any action.
If A or K involved then go down to 2 if SUITED else follow the COUPLERS
(AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K8, K7, K6, K5, K4, K3, K2) = 23 total
Suited or NOT makes no difference, treat the suits as a gift but don’t go crazy about.
If A or FaceCards then 2 gaps or less is OK if T then ONE gap or less.
(AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, Q9, JT, J9, J8, T9, T8) = 14x +14s = 28
If 9,8,7,6 or 5 involved NO gap. (98, 87, 76, 65, 54) = 5x + 5s = 10
TOTAL = 74
First it depends in what position you're, how many players are in the game, how many limped in, if it's raised etc etc. I'll assume you play in a 10-handed game. Be carefull with suited weak aces; only play them with enough limpers. I wont play weak suited kings (only maybe when the whole table limps in :)) It also depends a lot if you're playing suited or unsuited connectors, especially when they're small. Same applies with small pocket pair, only play them with enough limpers, so dont play 33 for instance UTG.
When the pot is raised, be very carefull with trap hands, like KT and AJ etc.
I think your starting hands are not really your problem (except the weak suited kings), i think your problem is when to play the marginal hands preflop and when not.
I don't think anyone could say you are doing too much wrong, assuming you take note of position and players, but I am more conservative than you - most of the time, in general, I would prefer one of these hands -
Any Pair from AA to 66 (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66)
If A involved then go down to 2 if SUITED; if K involved go down to 5 if SUITED; else -
AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8
KQ, KJ, KT
QJs, QTs, Q9s, Q8s
QJ, QT
JTs, J9s, J8s
JT
T9s, T8s
98s
54s
Total = 52
For starters, you're not taking into account your position, and whether the pot has already been raised or not.
This is WAY too loose. You won't be able to win if you play all of these hands.
Also, which ones will you play if it's been raised? If it's raised and you still call with T8 offsuit your game is in need of a lot of work.
Do you consider position when you decide whether to play a hand? IE in most games, except the eaisiest, QT suited is not worth playing at all in early position. But on the button it's playable if there is no raise and many people have entered.
Being suited is a HUGE advantage in loose games. I will never play QTo in a full game in any position but I may play QTs.
-SmoothB-
Personly I only play Axs in late pos. , and i only play small connectors suited in late pos. never unsuited, i like the extra draw with a bad hand.
The first thing I would do is throw out Ax and Kx unsuited unless they contain color.
Smooth,
Are you saying that in a loose passive game you would muck QToff from late position (especially on the button) if there were only 1 or 2 callers ?
How about if all 7 limped in ?
I have found almost nothing to disagree with you about since I've been reading and posting here (I'm probably just a little bored at the moment since P/P just froze up and I have NO OTHER LIFE =) but I would JUMP into the pot in a game such as described, if there were either a very small or very large number of limpers.
I won't get rich doing it, but I have a hard time believing that I would fail to show a profit in the long run.
Did I misunderstand you, or am I handling this in a manner that is diferrent than you believe to be correct ?
It seems as though I have made a tidy sum being the 6th, 7th, or 8th player in with unsuited one-gappers much lower than this.
Please reply; even if I disagree I know you will have something to offer that I have up till now not been considering.
Thanx -
J-D
You are placing straight and unchanging value on a variety of hands that play differently depending on position, whether pot has been raised, the # of callers, the nature of your opponents, and the general nature of the hand itself.
For instance, K2 is NOT a very good hand at all. If it is UNSUITED, IT IS CLEARLY A FOLDING HAND IN ANY POSITION. If suited, it is just BARELY playable for a single bet in late position or partial bet in the SB (1/2 bet or 1/3, but NOT 2/3), but this assumes that there are SEVERAL callers and the pot is NOT raised!
You have KJ listed as a hand you will play. Well what if it's suited? Unsuited? What if you are under the gun? What if it's raised by an early position player, and everyone folds to you in middle position, but there is still a maniac left to act?
There is so much more to playing starting hands than just simply making a list. In fact, most good players have seen and practically memorized the lists in the books found on this website, but once they became skilled at the game, they basically throw the list away. The reason for this is that now they understand the types of factors to consider when deciding whether to play a hand pre-flop. Mind you they don't really deviate that much from the "classic" Sklansky and Malmuth starting hand chart, but they don't necessarily care whether KJs is a class 3 or class 4 hand either. They understand when and where it can be profitably played and don't need to look at the chart to make such decisions.
Large and small pairs, Suited and unsuited hands, connectors and gappers all play differently. And they should be played differently under differing circumstances.
An example...
You have KJo. You have listed this as a hand you would play. In which of these situations would you play it?
1. Under the gun raises and all fold to you in late position. UTG is a very tight and skilled player.
2. Three weak players limp and you are in the cutoff (one to the right of the button). Button is getting ready to throw his cards into the muck.
Another example...
You have As2h. In which of these situations would you play it?
1. you are in the BB and no one raises, you get a free play.
2. You are on the button and five players limp into the pot, no raise.
3. An early position player raises and another reraises, all fold to you on the button.
4. four players limp and the cutoff raises, you are on the button.
5. One tight player limps in early position and the rest fold to you.
One more...
You have 8c7c.
1. you are in the cutoff. UTG raises and one player calls, rest fold.
2. five players limp and you are on the button. No Raise.
3. You are in the BB, five players limp and the button raises, SB calls.
4. you are under the gun in a relatively tight and very aggressive game.
You should be able to answer these questions correctly if you are a decent player, and you should know the REASON for the answers you are giving.... If not, you should perhaps consider reading some books which can be found on this website....
Dave in Cali
Your post was a real help for me. I really mean it!
To put it bluntly; I've enjoyed reading your post. You are absolutely right on the money. Thank you!
I certainly need more studying to do in this game, no question about it!
Regards,
Total=74
Hey fellas,
This is kinda weird, but maybe someone can help me out with this. I've noticed a pattern in my "play".. and it is this - whenever I play LIVE games, either at Atlantic City or local "clubs", I seem to do poorly. The best I ever seem to do is break even, but the rest of the time I slowly lose the few hundred I bring with me to the table.
I don't believe I'm a bad player, though. Because, whenever I play for real money online, say in ParadisePoker and such, I win consistently. I've done my share of reading and studying so far, including both major Sklansky and S&M books (T.O.P, HEFAP), as well 3 other books, and even Schoonmaker's poker psychology book. I play poker online constantly, and succeed.
I know most of the odds one needs to know, I understand concepts such as effective, implied, reverse implied (etc) odds and how to estimate them. I actually consider myself a pretty decent player. But something goes wrong when I play live.. I win pots here and there, but I seem to VERY SLOWLY dwindle down my stack. I fold most hands, and follow starting guidelines that take into consideration intrinsic hand values, including factors such as table texture (looseness & aggressiveness). I play tight-aggressive in typical games, and open up a little more in loose games.
I study the game when I'm out of the pot, work on my card reading and try to catch tells, studying each player's style.
I was playing $2-4 and $5-10 hold'em in AC this weekend, and I lost what I brought to play with. In $2-4, my early raises with hands that ask for it, such as AK, were getting respect but outdrawn by a lone player. Hands such as QQ were also beat by players staying in with A3 offsuit, and so on. It had gotten to a point where an old lady told me I should go read a book before I play, because chips are not just clay but are money. I thought that was kinda funny, but sad at the same time. She took a little 20 page "poker handbook" by some unknown author and handed it to me open to the "hold em" section, where it said that hands like AA & KK are good starting hands. I smiled and said thank you.
Anyways, some suggestions on why my live games don't go well would be good. It may be that I occasionally play hands that I shouldn't start with, because the dealing takes so long and cards look better than they really are when you've gotten shit for the last 2 hours.
But for the most time, when I played 5-10, I would go up a good deal, and then just dwindle down when I would call hands that the pot odds made worth calling, but seem to not catch. Slowly down, fold fold fold, blinds, fold fold fold, blinds, fold fold, play a few hands, not catch, blinds, play a hand, win a small pot, fold fold. I would alter my image as necessary, sometimes raising with 9-10 suited off early position, and playing QQ the same way. So getting action wasn't the problem.
Anyways, slowly dwindled down to $0. I'll take whatever suggestions I may get.
Later, Slay.
1. Perhaps your live opponents are better than your online opponents. "Game selection" could mean that you are a +EV player online and a -EV player live.
2. Perhaps you haven't played enough live hours to accurately determine your live EV. If you really are +EV in live games, your live game results still could be in the red if you just happened to start off with relatively bad hands and/or unlucky flops, turns, and rivers.
Live play and Paradise play are worlds apart. Most folks don't do well at both.
played live poker after three months of pp only...ran over the live games and thought it was my increased abilities and studying players...but really just short term run(luck) ....need a lot more hours of play and analysis of toughness of players, but i do think i play live games better and do not really know why...gl
When this happens to me, it's usually because I'm holding on to too many hands for too long postflop.
I find that a "typical" 3-6 game on PP is relative to a typical 5-10, 6-12 game live, the reason I mention this is that I therefore doubt that game selection is a problem particualarly at 2-4. What you may be doing is just the opposite and giving too much credit to your opponents.
The other thing that I picked up is that you seem to be trying to do too many things live that you're not that familiar with, I mean everything that you said in your post is "a good thing" ie. studying oppponents etc., but I get the impression that you may be overwhemling yourself and not putting enough into what you do right on line which has made you a winner.
The chief advantage of casino play is your ability to spend more time observing your opponents and adjusting to and manipulating them. If you don't excel at this, you might do better online. Also, the far greater number of hands you receive per hour online means that your hourly rate will usually be higher there, so that it might take more time in a casino to accomplish the same result.
The most important factor for low limit players, however, is the higher rakes/tokes/jackpot drops that probably suck out an extra $2-3 out of every pot you win in most casino games. If you're a small winner in the low limit online games, you should expect to lose in a casino.
I am a semi-frequent potser here; the reason I deleted my name is so not to start some rambling debate as to the truthfulness of what I am about to tell you.
Until two months ago I did not own a computer that was up to the task of playing poker on-line; it was a dinosaur which I was always planning to replace but I kept putting it off. Money was not the issue - these days you can pick up a unit for well under $1,000 that will do almost anything you ask of it. My wife (tired of hearing me whine about the speed of the old unit) went out and bought me what amounts to a "state of the art" little devil; I'm pretty sure she paid a little more than she should have, but that is hardly the point.
Due to an injury (nothing horrible but it does keep me from getting around as well as I would like) I have spent the last three and a half months tied to the house. When I got the new machine the first thing I did was download an on-line poker program; I'll leave out the name but it is NOT "Paradise Poker".
At first I was a little leery regarding the dangers of on-line play - collusion being my greatest (but not my only) concern.
I started at 2-4, worked my way up a little at a time, and when I was convinced that cheating was not a MAJOR problem - I'm sure some does occur as I'm sure some occurs in any cardroom - I decided to go move to the bigger games.
I'll let one of the math wizards calculate the standard deviation, i.e. the level of confidence I ought to have in terms of "am I just running good".
I am 99.9% sure (without having done the math) that I have found my pot of gold. For one thing, I have had far fewer "big hands" than I should have had in the number of hours I've logged. Also, it "seems" as though I have been drawn out on a little more than one would expect to be the case.
- I used the parenthesis because we all tend to remember our bad beats both longer and better than the ones we inflict. It is true that I caught two case cards which allowed me to win a couple of rather large pots; in my defense, in one hand I was "absoutely sure" I had more than one out (lol), in the other the pot was large enough to draw to the one out that I knew was all I had - $300+ 5-10 pot with two players all in so I got to see the river for $6.50 - a gutshot straight-flush draw that hit.
Anyway, you guys can crunch the following numbers. I will offer a theory as to why I have been having such astounding sucess.
Total hours played: 468
Total hands played: 20,197 -
- These games usually yield between 40-45 hands per hour; this is an ENORMOUS benefit. It's almost like playing two games at once, which, BTW, I do NOT do.
2-4: 45 hours played, profit - $ 695.25 = $15.45/hr
3-6: 89 " " " - $1,756.00 = $19.73/hr
5-10: 268 " " " - $7,604.00 = $28.37/hr
10-20: 31 " " " - $ 974.00 = $31.42/hr
Ther remaining hours were spent at 4-8 stud (high-low and straight high), and 4-8 Omaha (high-low only). If we group them all together - they are all the same stakes, even though diferrent games) these reults are:
4-8: 35 hours played, profit - $ 508.55 = $14,53/hr
In 468 hours I have won $11,537.80.
I have played thousands of hours in cardrooms, never with results that came close to resmbling these; I've maintained a comfortable win rate, almost exclusively at 5-10 stud and holdem, of a little over $18/hr. I have a winning record at 10-20 and 15-30, but nothing to write home about - just over $20/hr for both games combined, and with a useless sample size (less than 200 hours in my lifetime). I don't play larger than this, other than an occasional "shot" at 20-40 (almost dead even, definitely not + or - more than $300 total).
So why this goldrush on-line ?
1. NO DISTRACTIONS - (I have never found my mind wandering or being diverted by some meaningless event that was occurring elsewhere in the cardroom/casino.)
2. Close to 50% more hands -(That should require no further comment.)
3. Virtually unlimited game selection - It's possible that this should be #1.
4. Lower rake, but in all honesty I don't consider this to be a huge factor.
There are undoubtedly other factors, but I believe these to be the most important.
By the way, the figures I have seen qouted regarding standard deviation do not to reflect what I have encountered. I BELIEVE most of the experts would consider a normal S/D for a 5-10 game to be about $100 - $125 per hour; this would mean that every once in a while (I seem to recall it being 2 or 3 times in a thousand hours) I should have an hour where I win or lose $500. I have inflated the figure due to the much larger number of hands per hour. Well, when I sit down in a 5-10 game I almost always do it with exactly $500 and I have never had to make a trip to the cashier. I don't even recall ever getting stuck $300, but it is entirely possible I did and don't remember it.
I am interested in any and all replies.
Please bear in mind that not only have I no reason to lie, I have a very good reason not to share this information - I certainly don't need any of the regular posters to this forum flocking to my little treasure chest and filling up seats that could remain occupied by my contributors.
Still, I have gotten alot out of this forum; if a few of you choose to wander over - so be it.
My guess is that the majority of you will either chalk my success up to a good run of cards, or you will find yourselves unable to believe it (choosing instead to believe that I had nothing better to do than to concoct this entire story.)
If any of you do take heed of this wake-up call, may I ask a favor ?
Please bring the polite and courteous demeandor you all claim is vital to the game with you when you arrive.
Yes, they do have a "chat" section - and yes, the less skilled opponents who will on occasion take off your pocket Aces with 74off WILL get angry and leave if you ruin their brief moment in the sun.
Best wishes to all who took the time to read this rather lengthy piece.
I will refer to myself in future posts as "PPFSC"
- the "Poker Player Formerly Seen in Cardrooms".
I have collected $8,000 so far.
They do pay you if you win - at least this site does.
I have a friend who has been a successful mid-limit professional player for many years. For several months, he has been playing online in low-limit games. He says the low-limit online games are much tougher (i.e., tighter and more selectively aggressive) than live games (in LA). In fact, he claimed that the style of the 2-4 online players is similar to his regular 15-30 live game opponents.
Playing Poker is a business and it must be operated as a business. Those that win are not along for action, fun or excitement. The goal is to make money.
Successful players keep detailed records. Keeping records breeds confidence and discipline. You know when, where, why and how much to bet on each round.
The idea is to reach a comfort zone for yourself and stick with it no matter what. If you are not disciplined in your money management, you are going to lose your entire bankroll.
To become even-tempered about money takes work. You need to create an abstract money world where profits and losses are viewed in terms of abstract dollars. You don't get excited about profits and you don't get down about losses.
Yes, it's hard, but it's the only way to win. You don't want your emotions to go up and down with your bankroll. If you can't control greed, fear and hope then professional poker might not be for you.
Ramon
if you were involved in a low-limit game with 8 other players and everyone of those other players ALWAYS saw the flop whenever they held at least one ace, regardless of pre-flop raises, and you held Axsuited in the big blind, and there were a total of 6 players who saw a flop of AJ5rainbow, how often would at least one other player be holding an ace?
1 - (39/41 x 38/40 x ... x 31/33 x 30/32) = 43.3%
same scenario as specified above, and you know that no one else but you ever raises with AK, AQ, etc. before the flop, suited or not, but everyone else always raises with AA. how often will your kicker-x be outkicked after the flop of AJ5rainbow appears (with no pre-flop raise)?
if you hold A9, then, when exactly one other player h