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Stuck steaming and starving after being pasted by a drunk that couldnt play a lick,in the blinds heads up, I look down to see 75$ left in my stack.I am now the dealer and call for chips so i wont be short stacked as I feel its a terrible play to go all in in limit holdem.In the busy room at the Bellagio its loud and the dealer is not paying attention and I cant get a chip runners attention which is all it takes to make me even hotter so I say to myself screw it im gonna look at 2 on the button and that will be my last hand.2 people limp in and a poor playing local raises.I have KQ clubs, make it 3 bets and both limpers call 2 cold and the original raiser calls.Flop-5d7d8h a terrible flop for my hand.Check-check-original raiser bets-do I hit the Mirage for Shrimp with Lobster sauce with my last 30 or throw it in and most likley head for the barn for Peanut Butter and Jelly???
Paul3: If you want to throw $30 away go ahead and bet. That way you can start over with a new bankroll.
I totally disagree. The turn raise was absolutely correct. What if a 9 had come on the end? Then your raise probably gave you all of a pot you would otherwise have had to split. You also may have raised out a two pair hand.
The SB's actual holding is a perfect illustration of why you should be raising here.
William
I totally agree with William here. To not raise the turn would be a major mistake. Even if you don't figure to be in the lead, the pot is big enough that an increase in chances of winning the pot will usually be worth it.
Results:
That's what I was beginning to think untill the SB sheepishly flipped over JJ. This after capping pre-flop out of position.
Honestly, it never crossed my mind that he had anything other than AA. I just knew it. Which proves, of course, that I can't say I know anything... :)
If capping out of position is indicative of KK/AA, then it makes sense to cap it now and then with a hand like JJ to make the other guy (he better be a thinking player) that you have AA/KK so you can induce a bad laydown downstream.
I think the 5th bet in Vegas is almost always AA/KK (and more likely AA than KK) but in other games where 4 bets is the cap, the 4th bet does not necessarily mean AA/KK.
BTW, I did use that play (putting the 4th bet in preflop) when out of position in order to create the illusion that I had AA/KK. Not sure if that's what made my opponents fold on the turn but who knows, maybe it assisted. In both cases I only had AK and got no help on the flop. Something to think about. Obviously, you can't overdo it.
I am one off the button with Td9h. Everyone before me folds; I raise, trying to steal the blinds. Button and SB both fold.
Big blind calls and announces that he checks blind on the flop.
The flop is Q75 with two clubs. I check. My instinct is that regardless of what he holds, the player in the BB would raise in this situation if I bet.
The turn is the Th. The BB bets out and I raise with my pair of tens. BB calls.
The river is the 3s. The BB checks. What should I have done?
Comments on my play are welcome. Results later.
An interesting if-this-then-that combo. Against a player in the BB who would check-raise with anything on the flop, I would not raise preflop with 10-9. Against a more timid player, I would certainly raise preflop. In other words, I would never be in your situation.
Typically when a player checks the flop in the dark, heads up, after calling a raise from the BB, they hold A-x. This pearl was revealed to me by a long-time full-time pro, and I've found it to be true a remarkably high percentage of the time.
Typically when a player checks the flop in the dark to me in these situations, I bet the flop in the dark. That's not a pearl. It's more of a spasmodic reflex. lol
Tommy
I bet the river, he called, and I won the pot. He did not show his hand -- he obviously had a small pair, and probably held something like 87, A5 or 44.
Thanks to those who replied to my posting. I agree with clinteroo and Tommy Angelo that it was a mistake for me to have raised preflop with this hand. (Although it worked out nicely for me in the end.)
When I raised on the turn, I was hoping the other player would not call. (I thought his bet might have been a pure bluff, after I checked the flop.) If he had reraised me on the turn, then I would have folded.
It was probably a mistake for me to bet the river. I was fairly confident I had the best hand at that point, but he could have held a queen. After I raised on the turn, I should have checked the river.
15/30 game i'm in the BB with KK. we are 8 handed, two late players call as does sb, i raise, all call. Flop comes QQ2. sb checks, i bet, others fold, sb calls. Turn, a 4 maybe, sb checks, i bet, he raises. i call and call the river bet, which paired the small card. OK, one of the leaks in my game is giving up the big pairs after i raised and bet with them, especially head up. so, should i have given it up at the check raise? i called certainly hoping to catch a king but when i didn't, iguess i really shoud have not called. Another weakness in my game is just refusing to believe the other player has just the only 2 or 3 cards to beat me. what do i do? just keep playing and learn by experience? what would ya'll have done? this player is capable of betting another pair in this spot.
You're calling down there when it's heads up. No way do you give up on that hand. OK, so he has the queen, thats just poker. You could fold here only if he was the most unimaginative, predictable player in history.
Chris
One of the reasons to bet the turn in this spot is to fold if you are raised. Of course, you should only do this play against someone who you can be sure that your fold is correct when they raise. If you aren't sure, then you might be better off checking the turn when you have two kings since there is only one overcard -- the ace -- that can hurt you.
Mason wrote: "If you aren't sure, then you might be better off checking the turn..."
Checking with the intent of calling him down most of the time?
Yes. Your check may also induce a bluff. Now you should call virtually every time.
steve,
You should not fold on the turn or river unless you are against an opponent so predictable and cautious that he would almost never make a move in this spot. I have rarely found one that I can be that sure of.
Given the fact that your flop bet got rid of the other two opponents and you are now head-up with position, why not check the turn? Free cards are not a serious problem and you might induce a bluff or get a call from ace high or an underpair on the river. If you check the turn you must bet the river if the SB checks and call if the SB bets
Think about it. An ace high may fold if you bet the turn, but if you don't bet it will surely check-call or even bluff on the river. Yes, there are three bad cards (the other aces) you would like to charge a lone ace, but that is an acceptable risk. If you had JJ then you must bet since there are twice and many free cards that could kill you (kings and aces).
An underpair or deuce only has two outs. These hands may call twice if you bet both the turn and river. So you can lose a bet by not betting here. Any other hand is drawing dead and would toss on the turn to a bet. So a turn bet doesn't help against garbage. But garbage might bluff the river if you check the turn.
Of course, if the SB has a queen you save two big bets by checking. That is the obvious advantage of checking on the turn. But the check is a power tool when it invites river calls and bluffs from hands that have no or virtually no chance against it.
I haven't read the other posts yet but would be surprised if someone else does not mention this approach.
Regards,
Rick
I havent read any other responses but heads up this hand can be checked on the turn(there isnt alot of overcards to beat you) and bet if checked to on the river.If check raised on the river call.Ive bet myself off hands like these by betting the turn heads up .The downside is occasionally someone will get there with a hand like a small pocket pair that they might have dumped on the turn.This might be a situation of playing your player.If you have a tight image and are playing a tricky player the above strategy works well.If you are in against an ABC type calling station a bet might be in order on the turn.With your hand 2 KK's your either beat or in a big lead.
thanks, guys. yeah, he turned over Q3s, which for only another nickle in the sb is worth a call to see the flop and then calling a raise from the BB, though i don't know if i would have done it. the check on the turn and call down mode seems to be the best way to go in the future. appreciate the responses.
steve,
I wasn't surprised when several respondents mentioned checking behind on the turn. I just want to reiterate that you usually want to make this play when there are no more than a few free cards (e.g., three aces) that can beat you. If the board was J-J-2 and you had a pair of tens (or even queens), you must almost always bet.
Regards,
Rick
Steve: You raise pre-flop and on the turn. You initially had 8 players seeing the turn and elimnanted all but 1 of them. What could that one player have that was still in there with you?; He couldn't have a straight draw after the flop, I don't know about a flush I assume not because you didnt mentioned the flop being two suited. Maybe a pair like Js or 10s but not likely he has to figure you have a Q or a better pair which at best would only geve him 2 outs. I think you have to put him on a Q or AK. When you bet the turn if he called you could assume the latter. And he's looking for a draw. However. when he check raised you I think you have to put him on the Q.
FMonti,
In Los Angeles there are many loose but aggressive and tricky players who might call a flop bet with a small pair or even ace high out of the small blind once they find themselves head up with the original pre flop raiser and some dead money in the pot. Against someone who they perceive as a "laydown artist" they are capable of betting or checkraising the turn in order to give themselves two ways to win. But they will have the queen often enough to make calling them down painful. Because giving free cards is not that dangerous (since three is usually the max they can have unless they have A-2), I still think checking the turn and betting or calling on the river is the way to go.
Regards,
Rick
I frequently check the turn in situations like this one. A key parameter is if there is a possible flush-draw on the flop. You didn't say, so let's assume there wasn't.
I'll bet if I can safely fold to a check raise, and that of course depends on the player.
I'll check the turn if:
1) The player is likely to check-call the river with any pair, as most any player would have to do given that I checked the turn and given the size of the pot.
2) The player will often bluff the river.
With the SB last to act on the flop, many players will take one off here, especially with an ace, hoping to make a pair on the turn and feel it out from there. If they miss the turn, they will check and fold. By checking the turn, he has an extra chance to make a pair (on the river), giving me an extra chance to earn one BB.
Giving a free card to A-x is not a fear because if the ace DOES come, he will now be worried about HIS kicker, because my check of the turn will imply that the ace hit my presumed AK as well. So if an ace DOES come on the river, and makes him a pair of aces, he will often check anyway, planning a crying call, and I might just check behind on the river, since I'm now less likely to get paid off by a smaller pair.
This is a one-BB-combined-between-the-turn-and-river situation. With the best hand, I hope to earn one BB. With the worst hand, I hope to lose at most one BB.
Tommy
I limped with Q-7 on the button. Seven players saw this flop:
Q-10-x, rainbow.
Everyone checked to me and I bet. The small blind called and everyone else folded. I had barely played before with the SB player. Quick profiling via conversation revealed that he was book smart and happy with his game.
I put him on:
1) second or third set 2) One of these straight draws: AK, KJ, J9, remotely, he might have K-9.
The turn was a blank. He checked and I checked.
If any over-card or straight-completing card came and he bet the river, I was going to fold.
The river came a nine. He checked. I bet. He thought for a long time and called and I won, so presumably he had J9 or K9.
I think I've been checking the turn too much lately. Should I have bet the turn on this hand?
Tommy
"Quick profiling via conversation revealed that he was book smart and happy with his game."
I would of bet the turn with the intentions of checking the river, and if raised you could safely fold.
"Quick profiling via conversation revealed that he was book smart and happy with his game."
I would of bet the turn with the intentions of checking the river, and if raised you could safely fold.
I think you have to bet this. His most likely hands are the straight draws, not the sets. If he had a pair, he would have raised your limp on the button. He does not figure you for a pair, because, you would have raised if you had one, so a pre-flop raise on his part would have been an easy play if he had a pair.
If he has the draw, you want him to pay for a card. I would have thought myself to be in the lead at this point.
I would not have limped in with Q-7, I would have dumped it.
I am a low limit player, so I do not have experience at this level. I am curious what you think of my analysis, Tommy.
Alden
I think you think fine in that I should have bet the turn.
As to him raising with a pocket pair from the SB before the flop, I don't think he would without one of the top ones. And there's no reason for him to think I have no pair when I bet the flop. Given that I was last to act into a large field, I'd think he'd have to put me on at least a pair and just maybe an open-ender.
Tommy
You may have mis-read my first paragraph. I meant he does not figure you for a pair pre-flop because of your limp, although there may be exceptions where you might limp with a high pair to set a trap.
Thanks for responding to my post.
Alden
Tommy:
All the more reasons to come out betting the turn in this heads up play. At least this is what I would have done.
In any case, a nice win for you.
Ivan
With second or third set I think he would check-raise the flop if " he's book smart", because of the straight possibilities ("dont slowplay here with 7 opponents....tsk tsk :)"). I agree with you that since he's first to act after your bet, that he could call with a gutshot straight, hoping more people will call your bet. If he has a Q he would also check-raise the flop to thin the field, he might even check-raise a ten here i think. So most likely he is on a straight draw.
If you figure he's on a straight draw then you should bet the turn ofcourse if a blank hits. Then when the nine hit on the river I would check after him, because as you said, he could have his "staight-completing card", and he probably would have folded to a turn bet, if he had only a gutshot.
I'm really wondering....how can you play Q7 profitable in this situation? I know you're in love with the button, but didnt know you're married with it :)
Regards, ME
I mean, at least I didn't raise it, right? lol
What gets me, and I don't mean you guys, is people I watch day in and day out call raises from the BB with hands like Q-7 with many players in, and then throw away the same hand, for the same price of one bet, when they have the button.
And please don't tell me they are getting better pot odds from the blind because the hand was raised and there's more money in there. That means, duh, that they are against better hands, and more importantly, the pot will be strongly contested. And there they are, dick in the wind, under the gun, flailing around when they flop a pair, folding the best hand when two spunky players jam it up, getting strung out other times, getting outkicked, (remember the raise and cold-calls?) having no idea who is going to do what behind them. Yuck.
I'd rather have Q-7 on the button is a seven-way unraised pot than K-J in the BB in a seven-way raised pot. Thing is, I'd muck the K-J.
Being on the button reminds me of drumming for 10 years in the 80's. Back to the wall. It's a comfy place.
Tommy
I'd rather have Q-7 on the button is a seven-way unraised pot than K-J in the BB in a seven-way raised pot.
I get that back to the wall feeling on the button too. I wonder if all hold'em players do.
Tommy,
You wrote: ”I limped with Q-7 on the button. Seven players saw this flop: Q-10-x, rainbow.”
I remember your post about short-handed play, with the quip that you like it because the button comes around so fast (where others complain that the blinds come around too fast). You must REALLY like the button to play Q-7! 3 Bet Brett still gives me a hard time about my button call with Q-9 offsuit with a few opponents who were terrible.
I like your bet on the flop and you have to love having only one opponent. The hands you put him on seem reasonable. But once the turn comes a blank, you need to bet again with such a vulnerable hand. If your profile is right, you can fold to a checkraise.
After betting the turn, I would tend to check down the river, but it is close.
Regards,
Rick
I agree that betting the turn is textbook and proper on this hand. But it might be closer than we think.
The board was Q-10-x-x on the turn. I had Q-7. Here comes some massive variable shrinking in order to narrow down a situaion, using this hand primary for example.
1) He holds one of these hands: AK, K-J, K-9, or J-9.
2) He will call a turn bet
3) If he hits an overpair or a straight, he will bet out on the river and we will fold.
3)If we check the turn and he hits a pair smaller than queens, he will check and call the river(as he did.)(Interesting that for folding purposes, it's better that I had Q-7 instead of Q-8.)
4) If we bet the turn, he will not call a river bet. In other words, he'll bet with a hand that beats us, and he won't call if he hits a pair of jacks or nines.
No matter you slice it, on this hand, I need to make him pay a BB on the turn to draw. But what if he had a flush draw too, or in general a hand with a whole bunch of outs, but also a hand where he can catch a lower pair and will pay off with it after we check the turn?
Could it be "correct" to check the turn knowing for sure we have the best hand, given the betting patterns listed above?
I don't know. Just some jotted thoughts while mucking.
Tommy
It is a 10/20 round in a 5/10 kill game (SB is $2, BB is $5, kill is $10), and I am the killer in the cutoff. I have just taken down the last two pots. My hand was not showndown on the first one, but the hand I showed down on the 2nd one (I was the killer in it) raised a few eyebrows, so my table image is a little hard to pin down at this point (because I hardly played any hands for over an hour before those hands).
All fold to me in the cutoff. I look down and see 108o. I am highly confident that the button will fold to a raise, but I have no read on the blinds, though they have been pretty tight in the blinds for the couple hours I've played with them (especially the SB). I throw in an extra $10, making it $20 to go. The button and SB fold, and the BB calls. The BB is a reasonably tight (for these stakes), pretty straighforward player.
The flop comes QJ10r. BB bets. There are 5 SBs in the pot at this point. I decide to raise with my botton pair and a gutshot draw to the idiot straight. I raise for a combination of reasons. First, and most importantly, I think that I will get valuable information from the raise, because I think I will be able to make meaningful deductions from his reaction, both physical and betting, to my raise. Second, depedending on the texture of the turn card, I may well elect to take a free card to try to hit one of my nine very dirty and suspect outs.
The BB makes it 3 bets, and I call. I am confident that the BB has top pair or better. There are 10 SBs in the pot.
Turn blanks, BB bets and I call.
River is another J. BB bets without hesitation, and I believe him to be thoroughly genuine. I fold.
So was I just caught up in the excitement of my rush or was my play on this hand justifiable?
I would have folded to the bet on the flop. I most likely would not have raised preflop. But I dont play rushes...I just play the cards.
"The BB is a reasonably tight (for these stakes), pretty straighforward player."
Anon, this suggests to me that, at least once he 3-bet on the flop, your hand was in deep trouble. You may have had a few outs but they were pretty negated by his possible hands once he 3-bet. I agree with taking one off after that, but I think I'd have folded on the turn.
Anon:
You said it best: "... caught in the excitement of my rush ..." In all due respect, what can you expect by plying 108o?
Be more careful the next time.
Ivan
Last night at the Bellagio. I was watching a 30-60 game when i saw a lady's cards K-Q. She opened with a raise from middle-position and got 3 callers including both blinds. Flop comes K-Q-4 rainbow . SB check BB bet lady raise other players fold BB calls. Turn Ad no flush-draw possible. BB bet lady raise BB calls. River 4c BB checks lady bet BB turnes over A-Q and throw it in the muck!!!!! What you think ? I later told him because i know him . Shouldn't i ?
First it's not a very good fold. Even though there is a good chance the AQ is probably beat, there are still some hands that would raise which the AQ would either win against (or tie).
As for whether you should tell him, that's up to you.
Knut,
Not only is your friend "knuts" to make the laydown, but he is "knuts" to show the table how easy he is to run over. And you must be "knuts" to tell the guy about the mistake unless you know for sure he has a real sweet disposition.
Regards,
Rick
To be successful at short-handed hold'em you must realize that if you are not careful an individual could have the best of it by simply always betting. Hold'em Poker 2000 edition David Sklansky/Mason Malmuth
Any semi bluff that is break even or better can always be considered a winner.
From one of the readers. NEWEST BUMPER STICKERS AVAILABLE (First ten) 1) The sex was so good that even the neighbors had a cigarette. 2) I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it. 3) I Work Hard Because Millions On Welfare Depend on Me! 4) Some people are alive only because it's illegal to kill them. 5) I used to have a handle on life, but it broke. 6) Don't take life too seriously, you won't get out alive. 7) WANTED: Meaningful overnight relationship. 8) You're just jealous because the voices only talk to me. 9) BEER: It's not just for breakfast anymore. 10) I got a gun for my wife, best trade I ever made.
Over heard at the table this week.
Two Lebanese boys were sitting on the corner one young boy asks the other. What's 4 and 4? The other young boy starts to think and think and think. Finally he asks the other boy am I buying or am Selling?
The Tip:
You bet on the turn and again you are check raised. Now what do you do. Well now you have to think. Do you have the best hand or could the opponent be bluffing you. What guides you in your decision. The first thing you must think about regards the opponent and his check raising requirements. You must decide if he check raises with top pair or does he check raise with two pair or higher. Next look at the opponents chips. Does the opponents chip stack look healthy or has it dwindled to a desperate situation. Many opponents will not check raise bluff till their situation becomes desperate often you will catch a bluff by calling this opponent down. Look to see if the opponent is a loose wild type that will try any move to get the pot. Next you want to decide the probability that the opponent has the hand that he is representing. For example you have AA and the flop comes down Q 3 2. It is doubtful an opponent will not raise with QQ from early position. He could have a 33 or 22. You probably have a the best hand. You may consider a reraise. I use this example as a simple one but the problem becomes a lot greater as the flops get closer together and include flushes. You must decide what the opponent could have that he could easily check raise you and get as close to the answer as you can. Sometimes you just have to fold it is just to easy for the opponent to have what he represents. So when you are check raised think long and hard about saving bets and gaining bets and make higher earns.
Now for some single hand analysis heads up. Remember I am using the latest technology and program for these calculations. Think about how you should play the blinds heads up.
10s9s Total Win Rate with ties 55.85%
Win Rate without ties 52.76 Now the break downs.
Straight flush win .14 lose 0.00 tie 0.00 Total .14 to the black Four of a Kind win .18 lose .02 tie .02 Total .20 to the black Full house win 1.81 lose .14 tie .19 Total 2.00 to the black Flush win 5.96 lose .30 tie .16 Total 6.12 to the black Straight win 7.46 lose .51 tie .49 Total 7.95 to the black Three of a kind win 2.91 lose 1.04 tie .13 Total 3.04 to the black Two pair win 13.75 lose 6.30 tie 1.09 Total 14.84 to the black One pair win 18.08 lose 22.37 tie .84 Total 18.92 to the red No pair win 2.47 lose 13.48 tie .17 Total 2.64 to the red
A2offsuit Win Rate with ties 56.58%
Win Rate without ties 52.81 Now the break downs.
Straight flush win .01 lose 0.00 tie 0.00 Total .01 to the black Four of a Kind win .09 lose 0.00 tie 0.00 Total .09 to the black Full House win 1.60 lose .14 tie .22 Total 1.82 to the black Flush win 1.53 lose .31 tie .17 Total 1.70 to the black Straight win 2.38 lose .42 tie .53 Total 2.92 to the black Three of a Kind win 3.34 lose .59 tie .10 Total 3.44 to the black Two pair win 16.30 lose 5.59 tie .69 Total 16.99 to the black One pair win 22.55 lose 21.78 tie 1.51 Total 24.06 to the black No pair win 5.01 lose 14.58 tie .54 Total 5.55 to the red
The hands are broken down to make you think. Hosh can't do that at the table for you and get a response.
Remember keep sending Hosh your funny jokes or things overheard at the table.
Play well and have fun! Hosh
"Remember keep sending Hosh your funny jokes or things overheard at the table"
well you asked.
extremely weak player (EWP) who is literally giving his money away is being berated by weaktight player (bullyboy) who cant stand how slowly EWP(who is drunk, btw) is playing. they are heads up and EWP is publicly debating whether he should look at his cards or not. (hes been playing 'dark' so far. its the turn.)
i, being a nice guy, shout across the table at bullyboy, "we've busted a lot better players than you!", at which point EWP takes courage, forgoes looking at his cards, and raises.
bullyboy, who is now really steaming, looks at the dealer and tells him " if i lose this hand, im telling the floorman". everyone follows my lead (especially EWP), and begins laughing hysterically.
at the showdown, bullyboy flips over bottom pair. EWP, in a theatrical manner which takes about 30 seconds, turns over one card, then the other, revealing a flush.
bullyboy immediately racks up whats left of his chips and leaves while everybody is cracking up.
brad
p.s. in the interests of accuracy, this was a jackpot game (60k), and i didnt make any money (didnt lose, either), although its hard to put a price on 100+ drinks ( the amount imbibed by the 'core' players at the table ).
"10s9s Total Win Rate with ties 55.85%"
Maybe against Mason but Ts9s is a dog against me.
Vince
Hey Vince nice to see you back are you comming to vegas for the world series.
Playing 15-30 at the Yellowhead Casino in town, WAY above my usual seat at 3-6 (no explanation, just felt like playing).
Anyways, here's the hand Im curious about:
I have pocket 10's on the button. Loose cannon (LC) raises UTG; he has shown some interesting raises earlier in the game, but usually has some kind of hand when he raises. One caller to me; older guy (OG) who doesn't like to fold preflop and seems to be targetting me since Ive won some pots from him, I reraise to 45 (First question: Good or bad?). Both just call.
Flop: A-10-4 twotone Couldn't ask for much more than that, could I? LC bets, OG calls, I raise, LC reraises, OG calls, I cap, both call; $140 in the pot. Im not too worried here, as I am fairly sure the LC would have capped it preflop with AA.
Turn: offsuit Q LC checks, OG checks, I bet, LC checkraises, OG calls, I just call (Second question: reraise?). A bit scared here; KJ beats me of course, but thats a pretty unlikely holding (unless its the suited KJ of the twotone flop).
Meandering transgression:
Earlier in the session I had a battle with the LC; I had AK, and the board was: Flop: A-9-3, Turn A, River K, Lots of action all the way, we capped it on the river and he had KK, so I took down a big pot. Anyways, the point is that he would take a lot of heat with an underpocket pair, so I could not rule out QQ here. End of transgression $320 in the pot
River: offsuit 5 LC bets, OG folds (no flush for the gentleman), I just call (Third question: raise?) A nice even $500 in the pot.
Results following.
David
Yes I am a big wimp. He had AQ. Probably left 5 big bets on the table (4 on the turn; OG was going to see the river for sure and one more on the river).
Im not sure if I let the higher than usual stakes cloud my thinking.
I certainly do not think you played this like a wimp. I would have played it the same way. When UTG comes back at you after you put that much action in preflop and there is a straight on the board, I would just call also.
i play with some loose cannons myself alot and what i have found out is that the more bets you can get in the better due to the fact that they are not playing quality cards like you are so when you flop your hand it will be better 80% of the time and if they do have the "real hand" they will give you the chips back on another hand.But becareful when there is a good player in the pot with you because this might be what they are counting on that th loose cannon will hide their hand from you.and they take the chips.In the hand you talked about i would have reraised on the turn and the river.if he had the straight just check your odds chart and see how much of the worst of it he was inflicting on himself with the raising which loose cannons do all the time.It sounds to me like he was tring to bullie and 3/6 player and when you move up don't let that happpen but watch for it from aggresive players.
David, I would have reraised on the turn. Even if you are beat by KJ, you have a good chance at redrawing. I know you would have hit it in 3-6. I hope you won. I too have taken a shot at this game. I have played it for a total of about 10 hours, and I haven't lost a hand I went to the river with. I guess that's what happens when you are playing scared. When you jump from 3-6 to 15-30 it is very difficult to make all the right value bets because you are scared of getting reraised for a total of $90 instead of a total of $18. That is a huge difference.
Derrick
I agree that KJ is a mild fear, but still real, because either one of them could have KJ of the twotone suit.
Even though the raiser was an LC, would he check-raise the turn with one pair? I don't know. If we know he wouldn't, then his range of hands are: AA, QQ, AQ, or possibly a flopped underset.
I think you were about even money to have the best hand, so assuming that the old guy had a legit draw, I think you did fine by calling it down, BECAUSE, reraising would earn you only two extra BB when you have the best hand, and would cost you two extra BB when you don't. If that equation was +2 and only -1, say, you could safely fold on the river if he four-bet the turn, then a reraise on the turn would be clearer.
Tommy
Just to point out something here.
AQ = 9 ways
AA = 3 ways
QQ = 3 ways.
If you narrowed it down to these three hands LC will have AQ 60% of the time so TT would be the favorite. I would think that the possibility that LC plays QQ the way he did on the flop is remote. His play to me definitely marks him with at least one Ace. Therefore I think Dave's chance of have the best hand on the turn is much better than 50-50.
Based on your "transgression" (really more of a digression), I would have put in another raise at some point. It seems to me that over-aggressive players tend to lock in on a read sometimes and/or they think you play like they do, so they can't believe you have a monster. He may think "he would not play a set so fast on the flop" because LC would not have. Or he may laser-lock on AK, so he thinks he's got you for sure when the Q hits. Good hand.
Sorry to perhaps sound a bit unknowledgable, but I am curious about my 3-bet on the button with 10-10 against an UTG raise. I had been doing quite well and playing aggressively (I had only limped in twice in the 2.5 hours I had been playing, every other time I entered preflop with a raise) and wanted to keep doing so. I knew my reraise would not lose any players so I was essentially reraising because I thought I had the best hand, especially after it was not capped.
I figured between having position, having a good hand, and the LC being the one raising and the calling station calling, my 3 bet preflop would be a good idea (to help ensure the blinds don't come along for the ride). Still, I wasn't entirely sure. Can someone just confirm that this was a good play for my shaky self confidence?
Reraising preflop with TT is fine, since you know that LC has a wider than usual raising range (though not stupidly wide). Three way, you are in good shape. Five way, bad shape; seven way, good shape.
My initial take on your original post, was that the Q on the turn hit him - AQ or QQ. Maybe he had AA or was over playing (or bluffing) a lesser hand, but these seem less likely. Even though QQ is less frequent, I think calling is probably better, unless you have a proper 15-30 bankroll.
Eric
Not that it matters a whole lot, Dave, but your math is shaky.
Blinds are 5-15 in this game. You 3 each put in $45 pre-flop, driving out the blinds. Total now $155.
On the flop, you each put in $60, total $180 on the flop, pot now is $335.
On the turn, you each put in another $60, pot now totals $515.
On the river, you each put in $30, final pot totalled $575. Picky old me.
Now back to the action. If the LC was Chris, I have seen him make this type of turn check-raise on a big draw or even AK in this situation. He's really aggressive at times. However, unless he's got specifically KJ of the 2tone suit, his play reeks of a big Ace rather than QQ. Yup, he might have AA, but like they say, if you don't lose a lot with a flopped set, you haven't played it hard enough. Look at it from his point of view: he might suspect you have TT, but he's likely thinking that you have something like Slick, and he's putting (correctly) the maximum pressure on the OG (Little Joe? Keith?).
In LL, for sure, I 3-bet the turn, also (correctly) putting maximum pressure on the draw hand, plus I am punishing the LC if he is misreading my hand. If I am misreading HIS, c'est la vie. But at this point, I am much more inclined, as I said, to read his hand as a big Ace rather than QQ, or the unlikely KJ. But that's part of the problem, I suppose, in stepping up to 15-30 with a 3-6 bankroll. You might not always be able to make the best play because you might be out of your comfort level.
I know how you did in this game from your earlier email, and from the title of the post, I would suspect you took this one down, but that's my take, anyway.
duncan old guy dyer be careful
taco, I'm not sure if this was Keith or not. Dave hasn't said, yet. I would doubt it because Keith would not likely take all this heat on a draw 3-way. Maybe he would.
Keith can be tricky, for sure, but after playing with him a few times in 10-20, I think his strengths lie more in defence rather than offence, if you know what I mean. He saves a lot of bets making good laydowns, and staying out of thin situations, but I don't think he bets his hands as well as I thought he would.
For non Edmontonians Chris is a local pro who is a bit of a shooter, but knows how to play aggressively to his benefit. Keith is the local ROCK who is apparently quite good (this is the second time I have ever sat with him).
Keith was directly on my right in the BB. I have AA UTG. Chris has just taken a beat and is steaming a bit. I limp, looking for the classic AA limp reraise. Note also that this is the first pot I have limped in on since I sat down 90 minutes ago; every other pot I entered with a raise. I know this fact is not lost on Chris, and I fully expect him to raise and am not disappointed. All fold to Keith, who calls. I reraise to 45, and both call.
Flop: 9-6-5 rainbow
Keith checks, I bet, Chris raises, Keith cold calls, I reraise, Chris caps, Keith calls, I call.
At this point, alarm bells are sounding in my head. What is Keith doing coldcalling bets like this? Im already starting to fear a set of 9's or something from Keith.
Turn Q
I check, Chris bets, Keith calls, I call.
River 8 no flush possible
Keith bets out, I call, Chris stares him down and then folds. Keith has pocket 7's??
I just about fell out of my chair I was so surprised. The local ROCK calls 60 on the flop on his gutshot?? I have reviewed this play in my mind for the last two days and I don't have anything to chalk it up to. But I really liked my limp reraise with the aces. So, I'll focus on that rather than anything else.
Would everone pay off on the river here? This may be a bad habit from 3-6.
Old guy was an elderly asian gentleman.
LC was a regular (but it wasn't Chris) but I don't know his name.
Not sure what I was thinking on the math on that pot.
I think I didn't quite make it to Level III thinking there; what does he think I have? Im sure he put me on AK based on how I'd been playing to that point.
I play alot of $20/40 thru $60/120 with marginal players at best and yes there are some good players also,what I see happening to myself is that I make the "right"laydown/"right"raise/"right"call and then i have a bad player behind me make the wrong call or wrong raise never the wrong laydown and they get away with it so it seems to me that all the right plays cost me money and make it hard for me to make the most money.My question is when playing with players that don't know what are good preflop cards and when to play them or how and when to lay a hand down how do you counter act this to win atleast 80% of the time.I will give a hand example A10o before the flop to a UTG raiser?please advise
"Eeek!!!"
Don Prudente,
Somber Brotherhood
http://www.desetka.si/somber
95% of the time I raise with AA pre-flop for obvious reasons. The other 5% of the time, I don't raise, for variety's sake, to try and throw my opponents off. My question to everyone is this, what are the situations in which you check AA pre-flop?
Just curious...
When you say "check" AA preflop I assume you mean to just call and not to raise. Here's what we say on page 22 in HPFAP-22:
You may also occasionally limp with AA or KK. The time to do this would be when your early position raises are not getting any callers. If raised, you would frequently, but not always reraise. (However, if you are heads-up and are raised we suggest that you usually just call with aces or kings to add deception against your one opponent. Then plan to raise on fourth street.) In addition, be less inclined to limp with two kings as opposed to two aces. This is because with a pair of kings, an overcard — the ace — can come on the flop, while no overcards can come to a pair of aces.
I can't think of one.
John Vorhaus's latest article in Poker Digest mentioned the concept of varying your play by playing a wide range of hands and situations THE SAME WAY.
That's a bigtime keeper, IMO.
The way I put it is, "I raise so many crap hands that I'm damn sure not going to limp with the good ones."
Tommy
The way I put it is, "I raise so many crap hands that I'm damn sure not going to limp with the good ones."
funny story (maybe you had to be there)
playing 15-30 at bay101. there is a boyfriend-girlfriend combo at the table. boy has illusions of greatness. girl is a very solid player. after a while boy is stuck and girl is winning. girl wants to leave but boy does not want to leave stuck and is doing the "just one more round" routine. after some mild bickering girl lays down the law and informs boy that he is a terrible poker player. at same time boy has AA cracked. she asks "why do you raise under the gun with K-9o and then limp with AA?" boy says it is for deception and bemoans his bad luck. girl rolls eyes and mutters "you only win when you are lucky." she finally is able to drag him away.
I will limp if you are in early position and there are 1 or 2 maniacs that raise every hand. Then 3 bet after they raise. If in late position and it is folded to me I will also usually limp.
In the loose, passive LL games in which I usually play, not raising with AA is virtually unthinkable. I would prefer to mix up my play by occasionally raising UTG once in a while with 87s than I would be limping with rockets.
I posted a hand last week about not 3-betting with AA in what I could see would be a heads-up situation and I would have the button, but that is extremely rare for me.
I don't always raise with AA, but I always raise with AA, if you know what I mean.
I'm not sure what people mean when they say they will ocassionally limp or just call with AA for variety. After all in a 5 or 6 hour session how often will you get AA? Obvijously you want to get as many players out as you can. Even on the button if everyone has mucked his cards to you and you don't raise what has the BB got to lose. He will see the flop and could hit a set or 2 pair etc, in which case the hand could be very costly to you. If he doesn't hit the flop any bet will problably get him to muck his cards and you haven't gained anything.I don't think it worth the risk.
I scraped up enough for a buy-in and decided to spend Saturday afternoon at Lucky Chances. The 9-18 is the best game I've ever sat in.
Of course, my wife had other plans so after hauling a load of refuse to the dump, and buying and transporting a 1/2 yard of mulch to the back yard, I finally got to head off to the casino. The Bay Bridge was jammed of course so I got to the front desk and put my name up at around 4pm.
I promptly proceeded to fold every hand for almost two hours. This is sometimes necessary but it's never fun. I picked up 44 at one point and then promptly threw them away after a raise.
It was agonizing. I haven't been to a casino in about two months and here I am folding every hand! Finally, I was able to protect my big blind with A8s. A lousy flop comes and I muck. Eventually I was able to play some hands. I won 3 pots in a 4 hour period and I still walked away a slight winner.
Here's two hands:
This one is only interesting because I folded preflop. I am in early mid position and I pick up ATo. Now, I've been folding every hand for almost two hours. I mean it. I NEVER saw a flop that wasn't in the big blind. A parade of 92 and 85 and Q6 had marched past my seat for two hours. At that point, ATo looks very good. It looks like a monster. What the hell right? Play it!
I folded and an A came on the flop. I was cursing for a minute until AK took the pot down. Whew! Thank god for discipline! The AK had slowplayed it too. I would have paid off for sure.
Next hand:
I hold KQo in LATE MIDDLE position. There are three limpers. I limp and the button calls behind me.
First let me clarify that the players in this game are all SPECTACULARLY bad. I'll just leave it at that.
Now the big blind raises. This is the same player who has raised from the big blind with K7o and with A6s and so on. Everyone calls. 14 small bets in the pot.
Flop comes Q64. Big blind bets out. One player calls, I raise, button calls, small blind calls, big blind re-raises, first caller calls again, I cap (reasons below), button calls, small blind calls, big blind calls, first caller calls. 17 big bets in the pot!
At this point I'm pretty sure I'm not going to win this pot. I decided to try and seize the initiative by capping even though I was concerned about having the best hand. Some of the passive callers had me worried but not too much. They usually will cap themselves with two pair on the flop. I was hoping that by capping I could get it down to me and the big blind and the one caller between us. No dice. Five of us see the turn.
The big blind is the only hand I'm concerned about. The rest are on a draw. Probably back door flushes and A high draws. Yes, they are that bad.
The turn comes a queen. Now the big blind looks at me at asks me "how big is your kicker". This actually concerns me quite a bit because I figure he can beat a queen if he's asking that. Trying a little mind game since it was 95% obvious that I had a queen myself. So I play some more mind games and practically give away my hand.
Big blind bets. I instantly grab my chips like I just cannot wait to put them in the middle. I ask "what, did you flop a set AGAIN?" (he had just flopped a set on the previous hand). The player in between us hesitantly watches me and after a few seconds, shakes his head and decides to fold. I raise and only the small blind and big blind call me. Now I'm happy. I like my chances now and there's 23 big bets in the pot. The river comes a 7, we all check down, and I win! Woohoo! The blinds BOTH had QJ. Ha ha!
But the kicker here is that the guy who folded in between me and the big blind had a gut shot draw that would have made it! My tell saved me! And that's exactly what I was trying to do. I WANTED all the long-shot draws to go away. The pot was big enough at that point. Just get out and give me that pot.
So my little "trick" worked, although it wasn't a trick in the normal sense of the word. I really did have a hand and I really did want to raise, I just wanted everyone to KNOW it and get out. My comment about the big blind having another set scared the rest of the table into thinking I was the one with the set. Pushed out the straight and flush draws. Maybe....
natedogg
it looks like you won a big pot on the second hand but didn't anyone complain about the 5 queens in the deck?
Damn! What an idiot! I was so stunned and excited when I won the pot that I didn't think about the five frickin' queens! Nobody said anything and I left about 20 minutes later.
I suppose there's a slight chance I misread one player's hand. Maybe the small blind had JJ instead of QJ. But I'm pretty sure they both had QJ.
It shows you how bad these players were that it's even possible some guy was there on the river with JJ.
One player was so passive that he flopped a set of sevens, filled up with running kings, and DID NOT bet the river! About ten minutes later he made quad aces and was upset when no one gave him action. Ha ha!
natedogg
Exactly what I was wondering aboutlol.
Bet the river. The rest was fine and I like your mini-move for the exact reason that you want the draw to fold.
That with a board of: Q64Q7 and you holding KQ and them both holding QJ, the hand was not declared dead due to 5 queens.
Typo I assume?
natedogg,
I was rolling. When a player is getting such crap that ATo looks like a monster that is some funny stuff in addition to the five queens.
I was playing at Luck Chances a few weeks ago for the first in a 6-12 game and I won just over $300 with two pots in less than 10 minutes. I won the first pot with KK that held up on my second hand of the night.
A few minutes later I held AcQd in the SB it got raised and I decided to call. It was raised again so now it cost me $18 to see the flop which I wanted to really see for cheap but the good thing was that five players saw the flop.
The flop was three rags with two clubs and no straight possible. I thought what the heck I'm up after a few minutes so why not go for it. After all I have AQ and if I pair the ace with given board it could be a winner and I have a back door nut flush possible.
The turn brings another rag club. Cool that's four for me. I check and an early player bets. The Button raises ans say's I can't let anyone get a cheap card so I figure him for the flush and cold call just in case the river brings another club and if not I'll fold my garbage. Everyone else left calls also. Sure enough the river brings another club so I bet and the button turns to me and say noway!! I raised the turn.
Everyone folds and the button calls. I show my Ac and he shows me KcQc and is really pist off at me. He keeps talking trash to me about mu stupid play so I finally told him that his little $12 bet was not going to run me off that huge pot and I knew exactly what I was doing. He still kept talking crap so I took my chips and left a big winner. Well big in in my book anyway. Good luck does sometimes your way.
RL
This was a strange hand that worked out. It started with a bad decision but I got out of it and I wanted to find out what you more thoughtful players think of the decision I made. Foolish and lucky, or nice move to save butt!
I was playing in a 10/20 with 20/40 overs. A wild game. The pot was capped (4 bets, all overs) pre-flop, six callers. I held AJs and there was one of the 6 callers that is a solid player. The rest of 6 could have anything.
Flop: QJ9 rainbow. The solid player (SP) bet and two people folded to me. There were still 2 behind. I felt like I was way behind as the solid player had to have pocket overpair or AQ I felt. Still it was a muck or raise situation. I foolishly raised the pot. Dropped the other two and was heads up with Mr. Solid. He re-raised. For some braindead reason I capped it.
The turn brought an 8 for a board of QJ89. The solid player immediately bet, and I guess I had a sour look on my face. (The sour look was because I was pissed at myself but SP thought it was because I thought he had drawn to the straight.)
The SP noticed it and said: I guess you had two pair? Implying that he had drawn to his straight. By his normal play I knew he never would have been drawing to a straight and wouldn't be raising with Q10. I said, "Yeah. Grumble. Grumble. But if you got a G-D straight then you just do." And raised him. He thought for a couple minutes and mucked AQ face up. I showed him my AJ and prompted numerous calls from him later.
Stupid and got lucky or good play based on the info he let slip with his table talk?
Do any of you quality players ever limp in from the button when it is folded to you? Conventional Wisdom is always raise or fold, for obvious reasons. But I see two kinds of button limps in loose 10-20 games: (1) monsters (even AK, if you can believe that) and (2) hands like 67s or J10 that the bad player decides are too good not to fold but not good enough to raise with. I would estimate 2-3 examples of #2 for every example of #1.
With that background, here's one from last night. I don't know the button and he's only been in the game for 10 minutes. Fold to him, he calls on the button. SB folds, I check my BB with 9-10o.
Flop comes: 3-10-A rainbow. I bet, he calls. Turn is a 6. I bet, he calls. River is an 8. I check, he bets, I call.
Comments on how I played the hand? How about limping in on the button in general? I would never limp in with anything else but I wonder if it's ok to sometimes limp with your big pairs, especially if the blinds are really poor players who won't necessarily get suspicious the first time you try it.
Not to kill the suspense but he had AA.
The play is discussed in some detail in HPFAP. It can be right especially when the blinds are loose but passive.
I have seen this quite often. Usually when the button limps when everyone has folded (and this is a solid player, they are holding a monster). If they had KQ KJ AJ they would have raised but if they're holding AA KK QQ maybe AK AQ they want to get some action from that so they just limp, hoping that the blinds will make some sort of a hand and pay him off. I actually do this quite often as well.
Thanks -- I will go back and look. Would you have bet the turn in my situation? Folded at some point? Assume button is a total unknown so you have no intel on his tendencies.
Playing 30-60 in Michigan late at night about 6 handed. I not in the pot so I'm just observing.
One of the blinds have A,3 offsuite and the other player in the hand had J,8s. J,8s raised before the flop and A,3 called.
Flop comes J,4,x. A,3 checks J,8 bets and is called by A,3. Turn is a 5 I think. J,8 bets A,3 makes it $120. I don't remember if J,8 reraised or not, but they both see the river.
A,3 bets the river and J,8 calls. The person holding A,3 then proceeds to say "ACES" - J,8 then conceeds and says "yeah that's good", putting his hand down but the cards do not touch the muck.
I then look over and the person who said they had "ACES" tried to just fold his hand and take the pot. The J,8 hand had not been mucked yet, just placed faced down in the center.
We picked up on his move and told him to turn his cards over. We all saw his A,3 and WHAT THE FQCK! Yeah ACES right buddy! J,8 immediately retrived his cards and turned them over to take the pot.
Wonder what would happen to this guy if he was playing in a home game instead of a casino?
Also - guess his "move" created some bad karma as I proceeded to bust him with pocket 4,4 and hitting a 4 on the turn in a multiway, multibet HUGE pot (took down his QQ) LOL!
Good story, Big Willy and a good ending! There is an old rule, called "cards speak", which means do not listen to what your opponent tells you, but take a look at his cards instead. Good luck!
Who was it Big Willy? I used to play up there and saw some pretty shady moves... How has the action at the Eagle been? Did you have a 30-60 spread just because it was one of those end of the month tournaments? WHat kind of games can I expect on THur - SUn... Are you Big Willy from E.Lansing (Kelly's friend)? Best, -TT
I don't know the name of the guy but he was a younger fellow probably in his early-mid twenties - had a go-tee and was stalky. This was the first time I played with him.
The action at the eagle has been OK (mix of rocks, maniacs and anything in between) - and yeah they spread the 30-60 probably because of the end of month tourny. I think normally they only have 20-40. They did have a pot-limit omaha hi-only going on as well.
I'm from windsor so I only make the trip to the eagle every once in a while (maybe twice a month).
This CHEAP move actully was tried on little Jimmy (i'm not sure if you know who I'm talking about, but he's really skinny and very young - I think he's only 20). If you played at the eagle in the higher limit holdem games you should have played with him before.
As for myself - well, - I'm the really young Asian kid playing in the holdem bigger limits at the Eagle. People at the Eagle call me Will.
I might be making the trip again this Thursday so I hope to see you some time, later!
10-20 online he.
1) All fold to cutoff who raises, all fold to me and I call with pocket 10's on the bb. Flop comes 3 rags, i Check raise and he reraises...I call.
Turn a Q. I check call. River a blank, I check call. Anyone else play this differently?
2) 62o in the bb. UTG (weak player) calls, sb calls we see flop 3 handed. Flop 6 5 2. Checked to me I bet, utg raises sb drops. Should I have tried a check raise given the possibility that UTG would bet out two big cards anyway?
Turn is a 8. I check intending to check raise but he checks behind me. Should I have bet it out?
River Ace. I bet it out, get raised, my move?
3) Lets say i get pocket Kings or Queens in late position but not the button. ALways raise, or limp sometimes for deception?
4) I limp after two limpers in middle position with 10h 9h. All fold to small blind who limps. Flop comes Kh Qh 6s. Early position #2 bets, I call, other early position #1 calls. Should I raise for value here. Im not certain whether anyone would cold call a raise so I simply call? Mistake? Turn is 3d. Checked around, should I have bet? I doubt a bet would have won it there anyway...
River is 3h. Early position #1 now bets, #2 calls, should I raise or call. I doubt Im up against a boat b/c of the checked around turn. Almost all players would bet out a set against a flush draw possibility. I'm not certain that I am not against a nut flush though so I call. Good play or not? Results later
Situation:
1) I might have 3 bet before the flop, but other then that I would have played it the same way.
2) I put UTG on A,K or A,Q. I think he raised the flop for a free card. But I just noticed that you said UTG is a weak player so he is not likely to use this tatic. Since he's a weak player he could have anything. I probably would have check-called the rest of the way unless another 6 or 2 comes to fill it up. Then I would definitely bet out and NOT try a check raise since I cannot be sure what he's on (he might not bet the rest of the way).
3) If I have big pocket pair, late possition but not button I almost always raise (unless it's a tight table - everyone has folded to me and usually one raise will drive EVERYONE out). If that is the case then I just call in hopes one of the blinds or the button makes a hand. I would ALWAYS raise JJ,TT. For deception only use AA,KK, sometimes QQ.
4) I would raise on the flop, then check the turn. On the river I would just call with 2 other players already there.
...online poker is to weird to compare to same decisions in a live game.
What different strategies and thinking apply to online games?
The online game is strange. People seem looser and the cards do not seem to come naturally random. IMHO
1) I would be inclined to re-raise before the flop. I want potential stealers to know that I'm not going to be pushed around, and also TT is relatively very strong compared to the typical stealing hand. Given that you didn't re-raise, I would generally lead on the turn, call a raise, and check-call the river. (Against some opponents I might even bet out on the river.) You don't really want to give a free card here, you'll probably get called by a fair number of worse hands, and if I know you'll give free cards easily, I'll often make a free card re-raise with weak overcards.
2) I like to bet out with 2 pair on a raggy flop with the intention of making it 3 bets if I get raised, and then leading on the turn. I tend to play in a bulldozing manner so I tend to just bet-bet-bet rather than make moves like calling a raise and going for a check-raise.
3) On the river, I would sometimes just call, and sometimes make it 3 bets. It depends on whether or not this guy would limp in with something like A6s or A8s. You should usually be extra concerned when a weak player raises on later streets.
4) I play late position opening as a 100% raise or fold in almost all games, so I would raise with KK and QQ just like I'd raise with AT, A7s, and 66.
5) I think you can raise or call on the flop and I think you can raise or call on the river. In the games I play in, people value bet pretty aggressively when the turn checks through, and because the turn checked through it's unlikely you'll get overcalls from worse hands if you just call. Against two opponents, I would be inclined to bet the turn. If they are both on draws you will often be able to pick up the pot with a follow through on the river.
- Sean
you ask too many questions at once. it's much better to break them up into seperate posts.
1. 3 bet heads up preflop with pocket tens against a late position possible steal raise especially.
2. reraise on the flop with what is a decent hand youve lucked into, but it's very vulnerable to someone making a higher two pair, straight, or set. so charge their draws. smoothcalling the flop in order to checkraise the turn is no good cause the chance they were raising on the flop for a free card are just too high. plus a little two pair like this isnt strong enough to checkraise the turn. obvious call on the river, youre probably beat, but there's too much money there to fold.
3. i dont see the advantage in limping with KK late for deception cause youre just begging a sb or button to call with a weak ace (or suited junk, or connectors that can draw out on you). and you have the obvious big advantage when you raise with KK in late position, it looks like a steal, and you get one or two players to pay you off with smaller pairs. always raise with QQ here i think. it's too vulnerable.
4. when you raise on the flop youre raising for a free card more so than for value (yes i see the gutshot as well) cause your flush may not be good if it hits. on the river your call is okay. raise would have been okay as well.
would love to hear comments from anyone who thinks im high or something.
Two sample hands from 20-40:
1) I open-raise with AQs in early position, all fold wacky, tilting player makes it 3 bets from the small blind. This guy could literally have just about anything. Flop is J9x rainbow, none of my suit. Wacky player bets.
2)Two limpers, I limp with 98s on the button, big blind checks. Flop 864 with a 2 flush, none of my suit. All check to me, I bet, wacky player in the big blind check-raises. He plays way too many hands--previously he'd limped with 94s in early position and called two bets back to him including my re-raise out of the big blind, and also he'd cold called a raise of mine with T4s and called twice with no pair/no draw and bluffed on the river after I checked. But, I haven't seen him get out of line in multiway pots.
In both hands, I decided to simply call my opponent down unless I improved, and if my opponent checked, I would bet. In both cases, my opponent fired on the turn and river, the board stayed uneventful (in the second an overcard of a Q hit on the turn), and I just called twice.
In the first hand, my opponent held T5s for no pair-no draw except for a backdoor flush draw on the flop, and bluffed twice more. Since he still had about 8 outs (6 for a pair and 2 for a backdoor flush draw), I wonder if it's better to try to push him off it? This guy is perfectly capable of 3-betting with bottom pair or absolutely nothing. In the second, my opponent held T6s for second pair on the flop. I'm sure I could have milked him for an additional small bet on the flop and he'd have check-called to the river.
In the past I've always played back pretty hard at the wacky players, but recently I've been more inclined to just call them down and let them defeat themselves with their overaggression. Comments?
-Sean
I think your new approach is the better one if you know the player is the type to try anything. In the case of just calling him down or betting if he checks think about what happens if, when he check raises you, you re raise, then he reraises you? Now your forced to fold. I call it not letting the bad player have the opportunity to beat you. don't give him the springboard to put you in the position of making a decision.
however, I question your decision to hang with the AQ no pair, no draw. it may have worked this time but in general the best policy to beat these morons is to only play good cards, both on and before the flop. The AQ was obviously a good hand prior to the flop, but on the flop up against betting, you are having to hit even if all he has is 22 in the hole. On the other hand, your second hand gives you top pair and a reasonable hand to call him down with.
The player in the first hand was really a full fledged maniac, calling him "wacky" was probably a bit off. Against a maniac heads up, I will generally take an ace to the river unless the board gets really weird, and that goes double for a big ace. The same goes for against a very aggressive player in a shorthanded pot or big blind/steal situation. If you don't take your ace to the river, you'll get pushed off your hand too often by a maniac. Sure, sometimes the maniac pairs up, but he's still more likely to have nothing than a pair.
-Sean
Sean,
A quick thought. If you play with the same wacky player often, or are in a long session with him, tend to use both approaches (aggressive or calling down). The wacky player wants to gamble, and if he sees you consistently calling him down with ace high and any pair (head up), he will tend to back off and play more correctly over time.
Regards,
Rick
I thought I played this hand routinely, but that may have been a holdover from spending most of my time playing 3-6.
Same 15-30 as post a bit below, except now it is about 3 hours into the sit, and I am up about $1500 and have been running over the table for the last hour or so. Every time I've had to show down, its been with a big hand, so I like to imagine I have a good image at the moment.
In the BB with Ah7h, an odd 5 people limp in to see the flop, and I get a free play; happiness! $95 in pot
Flop is K-4-5 twotone hearts
I am first to act and bet out.
Question 1: Mistake?
Two people fold, middle position (MP) calls, next folds, button raises, I call, three players. $185 in the pot.
Turn offsuit 3
I check, MP checks, button bets. I take a moment to think here; button is representing a good king. MP is on some kind of draw, and the only one that makes sense is a flush draw or possibly an open ender on the flop, which he would have just hit. I think it through and decide a flush draw is more likely.
Here is question #2: if I put MP on a flush draw, which is more important in my call/fold decision: the implied odds I get from him if we both hit our flush, or the decreased odds of me hitting since he has two of my outs?
I call and MP just calls as well.
River: 2h, making my flush.
Question 3: What do you do here?
What I did and the results in the next post.
David
I checked out of habit. In this situation in 3-6 I always go for the checkraise, especially when the button has been showing strength.
MP also checked, and button bet. I raised, MP dropped, button gave me a bitter bitter look and called. I took down the pot with the nut flush. I never saw what MP or button had.
I was discussing this hand with some of my friends who occassionally play in the same game and we had a lengthy debate about what my best action is on the river; check or bet out.
Some of them liked my play, giving MP a chance to bet his flush (the hand I apparently misread him for) or the button to continue his chip assault on the pot. This camp felt that my bet out on the flop had disguised my hand enough that he would bet the river (note however, that the board is 2-3-4-5-K).
Some of them argued quite strenuously for betting out so that the MP might call and button may raise, thus earning me an extra BB. This camp felt that there was no way MP could call two cold after my checkraise, and the button probably should lay it down here as well, thus earning me only one BB on the river rather than 2 or 3. They also felt that if I bet out, MP may even call with a bicycle.
I am not sure. I know we are talking about a question of maybe one BB, so I hope Im not wasting everyone's time. Thanks to any who respond.
David
Typically I like to bet out with a nut flush because I can then make it 3 bets if someone raises. If you check-raise someone with a smaller flush, they'll usually just call, but if you lead out, the smaller flush might raise, in which case you can make it 3 bets. Also, flush cards tend to scare people from value betting weaker hands, at least in multiway pots, so if another flush isn't out there, you might not get the chance to check-raise.
-Sean
Your decision on the turn is check-raise or call, not call or fold. You now have 3 ace outs, 6 straight outs, and 6 flush outs. That's 15 outs.
On the river, I would be very inclined to check-raise. If you feel strongly that your opponent has a flush draw, this is a no brainer. By th play of the hand, it seems prety clear this player has a flsuh draw, as they would raise the turn with the straight.
If you are wrong, you probably only lose 1 bet, as your hand will be pretty obvious. You gain 2 bets, or even 3 or 4, by check - raisng. Since your flushing opponent is next-to-last to act, the button would be more likely to keep him honest than you...
Dan Z.
Dan,
You wrote: "Your decision on the turn is check-raise or call, not call or fold. You now have 3 ace outs, 6 straight outs, and 6 flush outs. That's 15 outs."
A lot of those outs are suspect. An ace makes a deuce a straight or could still trail two pair or a set. A deuce will often only get you a tie or make a six a better straight (65 or 66 is a plausible holding by an opponent). But because of uncertainty, you probably have seven or eight flush outs.
A better option on the turn may be to lead out rather than checkraise. If you get raised here you can be fairly certain you need a flush or a straight to win.
Regards,
Rick
I think you have to bet because it is just too likely to get checked around. Your thinking was sound because you put the MP on a flush but as you pointed out indirectly, the fact that you have a flush makes it that much more unlikely that he does not have one. So I would revert back to the notion that you don't want it to get checked around, and you may even get raised if you lead out. You probably gave the MP too much credit -- he may have had a hand like 7-7 or worse.
David,
There is nothing wrong with the bet on the flop, although with five opponents you will rarely get it right there. What you do get is some deception and immediate value if three or more players call. You might also knock out a slightly better ace, which could help downstream.
I think you have done a good job of putting players on hands by the turn, although the button could have a made hand as strong as a set. If you were sure the MP had a flush draw, I would prefer the increase in implied odds despite missing two outs (which is actually less than two, since a random hand would contain a part of your suit).
On the river I think it is close between betting and checking. Checking is best if you are right about MP's flush draw since you should be able to get the button for at least one extra bet. But betting out with a board of K-5-4-3-2 might get a raise out of MP and a call anyway by the button if he holds an ace or six. Then you reraise and at least get a call from MP. So I guess I lean towards betting.
Regards,
Rick
heres my weird rule of thumb -
if the game is bigger than i normally play in, i bet out,
if the game is smaller, i checkraise,
and if its my normal game i *should* know what to do against the players.
brad
This happened yesterday, and I STILL can't believe I did this... I am the stupidest human being on the planet and I need to vent.
I've been running bad for the last week after a very solid month of results. My bankroll had fattened *considerably*, and I have been feeling confident about my play, and very pleased with the decisions I've been making. But now, after five straight losing sessions in the past week, I decided to it was probably time to sit out for a couple of weeks and clear my head, so to speak.
But one more session, just to be sure?
I'm playing $15-30 in Northern Cal., and I'm pleasantly surprised when I find I'm up $400 after two hours. I decide that this, though a modest win, will be a nice confidence booster for me and I plan to quit when the blinds come around to me (about five more hands)... famous last words.
After folding three hands in a row, I look down to see AdJd. I open for two bets, a middle position (MP) player calls two cold, and the maniac in the cutoff (who has been to the ATM machine several times and must be four racks into this game) makes it three bets.
I call as does MP. $160 in the pot.
Flop comes: Qd 8d 2c
I decide to check-raise with my nut flush draw (is this a good play BTW? Should I bet out knowing I will probably be raised... or just check-call?) Anyway, I decide to check-raise, and of course the maniac bets, I raise0 and we lose the MP player who mucks. The maniac three-bets and I just call. $250 in the pot.
Turn comes: Qd 8d 2c (8c)
I decide to bet out, knowing that I'm going to probably get raised... this was probably a bad decision, given that I was playing with a maniac who has not shown any ability to lay down a hand, regardless of whether he believes I have an 8 or not. He raises, and I call... now I am sure he either has KK or AA. I figure probably KK. $370 in the pot.
As the burn is coming off, I am *praying* for a diamond (or an Ace).
River comes: Qd 8d 2c 8c (5s)
I check, maniac checks, and both of us pause. I am first, and I say, "I missed. Ace high." I flash my cards, but I DON'T table them. The maniac says "Kings"... as he tosses them on the felt and I see flashes of two picture cards and I fling my cards into the muck.
The guy to my left cries, "What are you doing?!" to me. I gape in horror as I realize I'm looking at KJo! He didn't say, "Kingzzzzzzzz", he said "Kingggggg", and I heard it wrong... and I threw my winner away.
I guess I was just so ready to hear him say that he had pocket Kings, that my mind played a trick on me.
I have read about this happening before, but I've never done something this foolish.
I'm still a mess...
/mike d
very simple rule-always show your hand in a situation like this.
Well, it took guts for you to post this hand.
1) A-Js is not a great hand in early position.
2) Why check-raise with a nut-draw against a maniac? What is original raiser makes it 3 bets?
3) On the turn "I decide to bet out, knowing that I'm going to probably get raised..." So then why bet out?
4) As for what happened on the river, I guess you don't need us telling you that it's never over until it's over. From a logical standpoint, unlikely maniac would not bet an overpair. Since you announced "I miss, Ace high," it would have been better (duh!) to turn the cards face up.
We've all made mistakes like this (I once invested $300 when I was sure I had As-Qs in the hole for the nut flush and when I turned over my cards they were As-Qc), so we feel for you.
I wonder what maniac could have been thinking, raising you on the turn and then checking King high on the river. . .
Dare you suggest that A-Js cannot be played from early position? Dare you suggest A-Js suited cannot be rasied under the gun?
I think it is clear the hand should be played. And the percentage in which you raise it should be extremely dependent on the game.
I only like playing A-J up front if there are 3-4 bad players in the game. I find the hand difficult to play if there's a raise by a good, aggressive player behind me. Add to this the fact that poster was trying to protect a win and I think he would have been better advised not playing the hand.
I know the fact that the hand is suited adds value and that S & M rank it as a group 2 hand. I prefer to play only premium hands up front and A-Js is, IMHO, borderline.
I only like playing A-J up front if there are 3-4 bad players in the game. I find the hand difficult to play if there's a raise by a good, aggressive player behind me.
Wow, that sounds very tight. I'm actually surprised that AJ, suited and unsuited, poses so many problems for posters on this forum because I almost always play both with a raise in early position, and I tend to do fairly well with it. Sometimes I run into AQ or AK, but I'm able to get off cheaply when I get 3-bet and flop an ace (typically I just check-call to the river, occasionally betting out on the river), and if I get 3-bet and miss, I just check-fold. Perhaps part of the problem is that limping with AJ puts you in a guessing game as to whether or not the raiser has AK/AQ or something weak like AT or even A7 and raised to isolate because he thought you were weak? Good, aggressive players seem a lot more likely to mess with you when you limp as when you raise.
I typically play a 100% open-raise or fold strategy, and UTG I tend to play ATs, AJ, 88, KJs and up. Sometimes I'll include down to A8s, 77, KTs, KQ, dependent on the usual factors.
Typically, the games I play in are fairly tight, and I usually only get 1 cold caller and a blind, but there's usually a couple fishy players in the game that are more than happy to call a raise with a hand like JTs heads up, and play fairly aggressively when they flop a pair.
-Sean
Your raise or fold strategy is somewhat Abdulian, both in terms of the raise or fold play and the hands you indicate you play UTG. Abdulian play is, in general, looser pre-flop than recommended by two-plus0-twoers. Yes, I play, in general, tighter. I've got to have an awful lot of weak players behind me to raise with A-8s UTG. I also tend towards the raise or fold strategy, depending on the game of course.
Calling a raise with A-J is a huge mistake in most cases. There is a huge difference between limping and calling a raise, IMO the overriding factor separating good and mediocre players.
Bad luck about chucking the best hand. I can beat Andy's story. I was sitting next to the dealer and had AQ. Raised before the flop and a dummy with Q-10o called. Flop was Q high, I bet, he called. Nothing on turn or river. I bet both times, he called both times. After he called my river bet I go to get my cards and with horror I realize the dealer accidently picked them up before the flop. So I was betting woth no cards... always have wondered what would have happened if the other player had folded, guess I would have won with no cards.
As to the play of the hand I think you played it terrible. Why check raise the flop or bet out on the turn? Neither play makes sense especially against a maniac.
The check-raise on the flop is stupid. I would only do so if you had 3 or more callers and everyone just calls the flop for 1 small bet. However, going up against a maniac with only 1 other caller reduces your implied odds of a flush when you check-raise. I would just call and let MP call as well to suck him in the pot.
The scenario would be different with AK suited though. In this case, I would check-raise the flop to go heads-up with the maniac. But because you have AJ with only 1 overcard, there is no point to check-raising since a Jack might do you no good.
The bet out on the turn was extremely dumb. You expect a person who 3-bets pre and post flop to fold?
As for making MONSTER laydowns and mistakes, I've got enough bad stories of my own that have cost me thousands in lost pots.
A good pointer is to always lay your hand down, make sure others have clearly mucked before you muck, and to watch other players who have cards reveal. I don't take anyone's word anymore because I've been cheated out by some guy who said he had a straight, but only had a 4 card straight. I mucked my hand before he showed his cards. Never again. I want to see them and I want to see them flat on the green felt where they are legit.
I'm with you Mike: time to take some time off, get back in a winning frame of mind. I'm doing the same thing this week. As a inexperienced medium limit player (not saying you're the same), I'm finding controlling my responses to losing one of the hardest things, particularly with respect to maintaining patience and quitting when the quittin's good. The game really should come with a cheerleader/coach.
Two terms for you:
"Drafting" - when your buddy leaves the game and you use his slipstream to draw yourself out of the casino.
"Tagging" (that's Tommy Angelo's) - when your buddy arrives and you offer your seat to him so you can leave
Everyone I know who plays has been in this hand at some point, except usually the self-destruction begins pre-flop. Folding the winner was just a fitting apotheosis.
See you in hold 'em rehab. We'll play some omaha. ;-)
Matt
I have A-10 suited in the cutoff at a nine-player table.
Two players limp in in front and I raise. The big blind and the two limpers call. I now have the button. Four players.
The flop is Ah Ad Kd. Checked to me, I bet. One of the limpers folds and the other two players call. Three players.
The turn is Jd, making a flush and a straight possible. They check to me and, after thinking, I check too. I figure I might pick up a bluff on the river, and anyway if I am beat it will be cheaper to check. On the other hand I am giving a free card.
The river is a 10 offsuit, giving me a full house. Check, bet, I raise, the bettor calls. I win.
Well, it was a happy ending, thanks to the Forces of Chance, but -- Did I play correctly?
Roger
i like your check and your thinking. but if these guys are calling anyway i would definitely bet. i would only check if i thought there was a decent chance they would both fold.
brad
I am not crazy about the pre-flop raise, but it's close. It depends on your opponents and the hands they'd play, and how likely the raise will earn you the button when a call wouldn't.
The board is such that a free card could prove very costly. there are 3 to a flush on board, and 3 to a broadway. When the board is this scary, you need to bet here, even though you need to play on if raised.
The good news is that your pre-flop raise may have someone with a straight or flush afraid to raise you because you could have a full house with this board pretty easily. Of course, if you've raised with ATs all day, this fear will not be there.
In summary, you have to bet, as you can't give free draws to these hands. HAd you not raised preflop, they may not call your flop bet with gutshots, and you can read their hands better on the turn. It would be a tragedy to give KQ, JQ, JT, KT free river cards here, esp if they have a flush card.
Good luck.
Dan Z.
Giving KQ and JQ free cards is desirable here, since their braoadway is your full house, but not if these hands contain the Q of the flush suit.
Yes they will call anyway with the Q, but you make a ton of money on this call because most of the time you win an extra bet that you won't get on the river. As far as getting people to bluff at this board on the river from early position after you raise preflop - good luck.
Dan Z.
Roger,
This is a classic example or a post where you get more honest answers if you simply ended the post when you wrote: "The turn is Jd, making a flush and a straight possible. They check to me..." and add the words "What is my best course of action and why?"
That being said, I would generally bet the turn.
Regards,
Rick
I agree with Rick and anyone else who said to bet. The pot is a bit large, and you have two opponents, so I would just go ahead and bet. A Q or diamond on the river will kill your hand, and if you're lucky a "tricky" player slowplaying a weaker ace will pop you on the turn.
-Sean
Any diamond excluding the Td, and Ad would hurt you, and any Q would hurt you. If you are losing to a bigger A you are in big trouble because odds are they already filled.
This being said, there are too many outs against you to give a free card, and you have a reasonable chance of being ahead. If you are raised you also have a reasonable chance at a redraw or you may get raised by a weaker A. (You may get raised by a stronger A as well)
So IMHO I would have bet the turn.
Derrick
Middle limit hold'em normal blind structure, reasonable rake:
Open raise A8suited five off the button, three bet by late position (place hand range at 88-AA, AK, AQ with a 10% chance of something whacky), called by small blind (unknown, but seems highly aggressive), all else fold.
Flop is 2 6 7 rainbow with one of your suit.
Small blind leads. There is 11 small bets in the pot, and you estimate a 80% likelihood of the late three bettor raising.
Where to we go from here?
What odds do we require here?
All comments encouraged.
fold.
If you think there is an 80% chance of a raise, it you call you are actually calling 2 bets. What are you hoping to hit? The hands you listed that the 3 bettor might have will have often have you beat if you catch an A or an 8. Your only hope is runner runner outs.
Derrick
Backdoor,
You got three-bet before the flop by an opponent with what figures to be a strong hand and you have about your weakest open raising hand. An aggressive blind called so you have dangerous and problematic opponents on both sides.
On the flop you have a backdoor flush, backdoor one card straight, and two dubious overcards. The aggressive blind leads into you and if you call you will very likely be raised by superior high card strength on your left, and could face more raises from the lead flop better. The obvious answer is fold. However, if you thought that a raise had a reasonable chance of driving out the three-bettor AND slowing down the lead bettor, that might be the play, but it is very risky and you would have to have tremendous feel for the game. But I would never just call here with an aggressive opponent yet to act and this type of holding.
You wrote: “What odds do we require here?”
This isn't really an odds problem. There are too many unknowns and dangers. You will face pressure and don't have a hand that can stand it. Even if it costs you only one bet to pick up a draw on the turn, you will barely have an overlay if you pick it up, and then only if it costs one turn bet.
However, if you had one more opponent and the flop bet came from your left, you would be getting about 16 to 1 on a flop call. This is about right for a double backdoor draw. The fact that the flush draw is to the nuts should balance the fact that the straight draw is to one card.
I confess this post has me confused, in that folding seems to be the only reasonable answer. I'll be interested to see what others think.
Regards,
Rick
"I confess this post has me confused, in that folding seems to be the only reasonable answer. I'll be interested to see what others think."
I infer from this that you realize I wouldn't post this question (which I already know the answer), without it being at least close.
This question is important, because I think many otherwise good players are forfeiting some equity folding in similar spots.
Regards.
Backdoor,
I really didn't want to post tonight having about 40 pages left to read of the great mystery novel “The Alienist” by Caleb Carr on my nightstand after a long, hard day in the trenches. But how can I stay away from your excellent thread and all those “Shame on Rick” posts misplaced as usual by “El Supremo” below.
Anyway, your inference is correct. When a thinker of your caliber makes a lead post of this nature, I assume that you have thought it through and your analysis probably goes against conventional wisdom and may very well be right. So I better get to work on those “Shame on Rick” posts and respond to your other posts in the thread.
Regards,
Rick
"Open raise A8suited five off the button"
from here on in youre on your own.
having failed to steal the blinds (the most favorable outcome), and having completely missed the flop, the fact that not one but two players are revved up indicates not only that youre done for this single hand, but that also you need to look at your whole strategy in terms of how the table is playing at the moment. perhaps what you thought was an extremely tight table was just a temporary card drought, etc.
brad
A clear fold. Sb bets into a 3-bettor; this indicates he may want to be raised. You're caught between a rock and a hard place. Plus you have nothing. Your implied odds are terrible: to draw to your backdoor straight or flush is most likely going to be very costly. Hitting an 8 or an A may not win the hand for you. You've missed the flop and there's an aggressive player in front of you and a 3-bettor behind you. Next hand.
This isn't an odds question? If this isn't I don't know what is. Anytime you have little chance to outplay someone but rather needs to outdraw them, we have a classic odds question. And this is by no means an automatic fold. Raising might be right if it is apt to buy you two cards. But even if it isn't, a call is quite borderline. If you were all in, folding would be truly insane as you should win well over 15% of the time. Further betting hurts you more than it helps and also decreases your chances of winning (the board may come rag ace) but the detraction may not swing things to a fold. Only if you feared both a raise and reraise or were very worried that your ace wasn't good would a fold be clearcut. I won't do the math but it is not that hard. This looks like a question for Abdul Jalib.
"Only if you feared both a raise and reraise or were very worried that your ace wasn't good would a fold be clearcut."
But wont that usually be the case? Remember that you have limited info to date. You can probably assume that the 3 bettor (given that he is reraising a relatively early position initial raiser) probably has TT-AA or AK/AQs. If that is the case, then one or the other of your fears is likely to materialize (i.e. given that the flop bettor must know that he is going to get raised which means that he is likely betting in order to get a chance to 3 bet).
I think calling on the flop here would generally be contraindicated.
skp,
You wrote: “Remember that you have limited info to date.”
By limited info I believe you are saying that downstream assumptions about your opponents likely actions (especially the blind) are almost impossible to make at this point. In a sense, that is what I meant when I said, “This isn't really an odds problem.” in my post above.
“I think calling on the flop here would generally be contraindicated.”
I just can't imagine calling here in the heat of battle. Say I make an Abdulian style pre-flop raise with my weakest suited ace high hand and get about the worse possible result when a solid player three bets me and an “unknown, but seems highly aggressive” player in the small blind calls (BTW, wouldn't Abdul agree that this might be the worse type of blind to try to steal with a light hand). Now the blind bets the flop, I have a solid reraiser yet to act, and all I have are two backdoor draws and weak overcards and a lot of unknowns leading to the river. Calling is “contraindicated” indeed.
Regards,
Rick
This could have been worse, Rick. He could have written a post entitled "Shame on Andy" under your post. Thank goodness for fuzzy posting.
But since it's under my post, I'll take a shot at a few comments and questions:
1) "Any time you have little chance to outplay someone but rather need to outdraw them, we have a classic odds question." Undoubtedly true. But I believe your point was that there were so many unknowns that it would be very difficult to figure out your effective odds.
2) "Raising is apt to be right if it is likely to buy you two cards." It would seem that the odds of being able to buy two cards here are very slim. An aggressive player in front of you has bet into a 3-bettor behind you. But anway how does this compare with statement 1? By trying to buy two free cards you are trying to outplay someone.
3) "Only if you feared both a raise and reraise or were very worried that your ace wasn't good would a fold be clearcut." It seems to me that both are well grounded fears in this situation, certainly more possible than being able to buy two free cards with a raise.
4) Best case scenario if you raise is that you get two free cards and win. You have to put $30 into a $165 pot; how can it be right to play if you have a 15% chance to win? Help me on the math, Abdul.
David respects you, Rick, more than most others (and with good reason), so I trust and hope I won't see a "Shame on Andy" response here. :-) (You did inferentially ask for tolerance when you confessed to confusion.)
Doing a rough and dirty calculation, it turns out that it is clearly right to call if there is one raise on the flop and everyone calls a bet on the turn (not you if you catch a blank) as long as your ace is definitely good. The fact that it is not, is partially counterbalanced by the possiblity of no raise on the flop and/or no bet on the turn, plus the possibility that you can hit an eight and win. My big quarrel is not with folding, but with the idea that it is not close. And as far as the unknown factors taking this out of the realm of an odds question, shame on Andy. You assign a weight to the various possibilities and go from there.
Gee David, sometimes my Mom reads the forum and now she will probably see this. Why didn't you just start with “Shame on Andy” in the first place?
You wrote: ”And as far as the unknown factors taking this out of the realm of an odds question, shame on Andy. You assign a weight to the various possibilities and go from there.”
Sure, ultimately it's an odds question, but for this type of hand we could argue endlessly over the assumptions and/possibilities. With three players and three betting rounds to go, there are a whole lot of possibilities and a lot of weight to assign. Before anyone less lazy than you or more competent than I should even start on the math, we need to spend a year or so hammering out those possibilities. In the meantime, I want to get back to my novel :-).
Regards,
Rick
Fortunately, my mom doesn't read the forum. At least my shame wasn't included in the post title. I don't think I could have figured the odds correctly in the heat of battle in a reasonable period of time. Plus I think the fact that David said you could justify raising if it would get you two free cards indicates that it's not just the odds, that there is the possibility of outplaying your opponent. But certainly what David took us both to task for, that we seemed to give up on figuring the odds because it is somewhat tricky, is a valid point. It doesn't take it out of the realm of an odds question just because it's difficult.
I'm just trying to figure out which is the 2+2 camp here. ;-)
In the cave the inhabitants grew restless, tired of our shadow games, and dared question. In the distance, the echoes of the "empty ones" bitter laughter could be heard...
Andy,
I suppose just about any problem in poker can be stated in terms of odds or expectation. But before we pull out the calculator, we have to make assumptions or estimates regarding future action, what our opponents could hold and so forth. And this problem would tend to generate wide disagreement over these assumptions (except for the likely holdings of the late position three bettor).
That being said, even if we agreed on the assumptions, I'd hate to be the one to have to do the math (but it would help me if I did).
Regards,
Rick
Imagine one person who only plays the lottery. He only plays when he's getting the best of it: the odds of winning are $1 million to one, so he only bets $100 when the jackpot is over $100 million.
Now imagine a player who only tosses a coin and lays $100.01 to win $100.00. He's always taking the worse of it.
Who's going to go broke first? I say the lottery player, even though he's taking the best of it and the coin tosser is taking the worst of it.
Hold 'em players (and gamblers of all kinds) who are constantly taking shots at long odds are usually losers becasue the long odds can get longer depending on the action behind you and because you can miss on longs shots many consecutive times. In the heat of the battle, and in complicated situations such as this one, it's very difficult to figure out where you are getting the best of it or not, especially with all the various things that could happen. Even David used such phrases as "rough and dirty", "partially counterbalanced by the possibility," "quite borderline," and "the detraction may not swing things to a fold."
If David, an expert player, logician and mathematician, felt it necessary to use so many qualifiers in this situation, what does this say about chasing here for the rest of us? It appears it might be correct to play if things go well in terms of there not being a raise on the flop or there being only one raise and if, on the turn, a rag doesn't come and there isn't a lot more betting. I still think you're caught between a rock and a hard place and not folding is contraindicated (my favorite word from the entire thread).
Andy,
Good points regarding going out on a limb too often on long shots, even when you have a slight overlay. But wouldn't the coin tosser go broke faster since he could toss coins all day long and every day while the lottery rarely gets that big?
Regards,
Rick
Yes, probably. The long-shot artists in poker, however, always seem to find plenty of long-shots to draw to.
By the way, I assume you realize David's shameful title was a compliment to you: he's used to seeing fuzzy thinking from the rest of us, but when he thought he saw it from you he was surprised. I personally don't think your thinking as fuzzy at all, and you did say initially that you were somewhat confused by the original post, and you later discussed that perhaps you were a bit hasty in assuming a fold was without a doubt in order, reassessing your thinking about the value of a double backdoor draw.
Have a great weekend.
Andy,
Thanks for the kind words. Right now I'm bamboozled by the "KTo in SB" thread above. I made a simple observation about the flop overcall, and now I am at a loss as to why so many would take one card off here.
I'm working on a lead post that will cover variations on this subject (i.e., thin overcalls of lead flop bets into many players when you have top pair/mediocre kicker) that may go up on Monday when I should be around to respond. In the meantime, would you take a look at my response in that thread? Could I be that off base to think it is a clear fold after the action described by Dan Z.?
Regards,
Rick
Would it help if I mentioned that heads up against the three bettor 7-1 is probably enough?
backdoor,
If you are head up with the flop three bettor and the three bettor bets after you check you should be getting 8.5 to 1 on a call (minus rake). Removing the complications of the unknown third party in the small blind simplifies everything and I'm sure your analysis indicates that calling is correct (if 7 to 1 is adequate).
But even here you need to make critical assumptions about the likely action of your opponent on the turn and river if you pick up a card you need to continue. For example, if you catch a medium paint in your suit on the turn, how likely will your opponent check behind versus bet? How often will he fold, raise or just call if you bet (in both cases based on his many possible hands)? How often will he fold to a semi-bluff on the turn if he gets one of many possible cards that are scary from his vantage point? How often will he check the river if he makes aces on the turn but the river comes any number of cards, some of which help you and most of which don't (in all cases you are out-kicked going into the river). So even without the third party, it gets pretty complicated. I