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My two previous articles dealt with what you need to be doing the in the first twenty seconds of a razz hand; this one deals with the last five.  If you are wondering what happened to all the seconds in the center of a hand, once you understand the first twenty seconds and the last five, the rest becomes pretty straightforward.  And to understand those two things, the very singular nature of razz must be accepted: it’s a race.  Players are often berated for chasing in poker games.  But in razz, you are always chasing and chased, usually in the same hand.  And, just as the runner doesn’t quit just because he has fallen behind, the razzer must chase when probability and pot odds say it makes sense to do so. 

The difference between the footrace and razz is this: when runner A is at the twenty yard pole and runner B is at the eighty yard pole in a one-hundred yard dash, you can predict the winner with 99.9% accuracy.  (Well, the earth could open up and swallow runner B in those last seconds.)  And at the finish line, they both know who won. In razz, when you are 80% to win on 6th street with your good made 8 against your opponent’s 7-draw, on the river you are exactly:  0% or 100%.  And you won’t have a clue which one you are. 

Information, or lack thereof, is the basic underpinning of all river play decisions.

Manna or Mystery 

I divide razz hands into three types. The first type, the Rats hand, occurs when your opponent’s board looks like: XXA577X, and on 5th street you said to yourself “Rats! He just made that 75.” Barring his having checked 4th street indicating he paired, or doing something else to make you doubt him, you’ve either folded before the river or you will do so when you fail to make that 6 you were drawing to. I’m not going to deal much with Rats hands, as they are so player-read, specific-hand-action dependent. It’s difficult, perhaps impossible, to give general guidelines to river play for Rats hands.  The Manna and Mystery hands are the ones you will get all the way to the river with most often.

The Manna hand seems miraculously dropped from heaven, we win effortlessly with no doubts:

6th Street
You: (4 2) 5 6 8 A 
Opponent:  XX 8 7 6 T 

In the typical Manna hand above, you always know you are ahead.  Even if your opponent has (A2) in the hole and rivers a (3), you have and maintain boardlock throughout. 

But most common is the Mystery hand:

6th Street
You:  (2 5) 8 6 2 T
Opponent:  (7 5) 4 9 3 Q

No one knows, by the exposed cards alone, if they are ahead or behind at this moment.  And, even if one or both of you catch an ace on the river, neither will be sure who is ahead.  Your opponent doesn’t know if you already made an 8, or, if he hits an 8 himself, if it will be any good, considering how rough his 8 will be.  If you already made an 8, your opponent knows he can make a 7 on the river, but will not know if you make a 6. You know that here your opponent can’t have better than a made 9, but you don’t know what better hand he is still drawing to.

Approaching the River

(If you are not already doing what I am about to describe: Do it henceforth, do it every time, do it forever.)

Ideally, you keep track of these things all through the hand.  If you have not, on 6th street, before you put in one more bet, make a call, check or fold, take a moment to know as much as you can about where you are.  Know these things:

1. The best hand your opponent can make from the cards you can see.
2. What your opponent thinks you have.
3. The best possible hand you can make.
4. What you think your opponent actually is holding.
5. The likelihood you will beat your opponent if you catch the best possible river card.

Here, you also use the first twenty seconds of the hand and your player read to understand the dynamics and possible outcomes of your various choices.  In the examples below, I’ll refer to information that hypothetically comes from 3rd street play.

Example One - The Manna Hand

6th Street
You: (4 2) 5 6 8 A 
Opponent:  XX 8 7 6 T 

If you wonder why you should even bother to go through the 6th street checklist with this nut hand, ask yourself if you already know how you will get the most value from the hand on the river.  It isn’t enough to know you have the best hand regardless of river outcome.  It isn’t enough because the object of poker is not to have the best hand; the object of poker is to collect the most money possible.

1. The best hand your opponent can make is 7632A.  Because he called a completion on 3rd street against your 5 in the door with his 8 up, and because he has called all the way down, it is reasonable to assume he does have two babies in the hole and can make a good 7 if he catches on the river.
2. He may think you paired one of your cards, especially the ace as no other aces were seen.  If you bet here and he calls, it means he believes he still has a chance to win and is putting you on an 8 draw.
3. You can still make a wheel, though in this case it would not change the outcome.
4. Because he called your 5th street bet, you believe he does have a made 87.
5. Number 5 in this case is not necessary for you to ask. Seat 5, because he is at the bottom of the information well, seems to believe he can still win.

Example 1 Riverplay:

If your opponent is any kind of solid player, even if he doesn’t improve, he will not fold a made 87 to one bet, so if you bet, you know you will get a call.  If you check in this case, he will check behind with an unimproved 87 against your possible 86.

If the solid opponent makes a 76 on the river, the outcome may be the same.  On 6th street, you had an 86 that could become a made 6.  Unless he has recently caught you bluffing or you have the image of a loose, aggressive player, he could check behind if you check.  However, if he believes his read and thinks you cannot make better than an 8, he will raise your river bet if he makes a 7 and will reluctantly call your reraise.  

In the case of the solid player, a passive player or a player little known to you: bet. Betting out on the river with a Manna hand constitutes your best option the majority of the time.  Betting against an aggressive player can even net you a reraise.  I’ve often been surprised by a player who seems to believe he can bluff-raise me off my hand on the river or else doesn’t see that his hand is vulnerable and thinks his inferior hand will win.  In that latter case, he will even cap the betting.  Manna hands are best bet straightforwardly, especially because most players instantly suspect a check/raise when an apparently superior hand unexpectedly checks.  

However, if you want to try a check/raise with this kind of hand, two types of players are more likely to bet if you check: the inexperienced player or the loose/aggressive player.  Both types can bet if you check whether they improve or not.   The inexperienced player can only see he has a “made hand” and when you check will be more focused on himself than you and assume you missed.  The loose aggressive player will believe you were playing a brick in the hole, because he does so often and, more interested in his victory than your strategy, will jump on your perceived weakness and bet.  Both these player types can call a raise, the first doesn’t know how to fold and the second isn’t willing.

Example Two - The Mystery Hand

6th Street
You: (7 4) 5 Q 2 K
Opponent:  XX 2 J 7 7

This is the situation you will often face in razz: Neither player knows who has the best draw.  Without improvement of either hand on the river, your opponent wins, presuming he has two unpaired cards lower than Jack in the hole.   Putting the hands through the simulator, if your opponent has (64), which he did have as all these hands come from my own hand histories, you are 47% to his 53% to win.  If your opponent had the worse draw, (84) for instance, the hands are 50/50.

Here are the five questions:

1. The best had your opponent can make from the cards you can see is 7-perfect, presuming he has (A3) back and catches the 4. (Or any combination of those three cards.)

2. Your opponent doesn’t know you are drawing to a 7, but even if he puts you on a wheel draw, he does know you are still drawing and have Q high right now.

3. Your best possible hand would be 7,5,4,2,A.  This is a very good 7, but not a sure winner if your opponent catches as well.

4. What you think he is holding: he is a solid, non-tricky player and because he completed in front of you on 3rd street and you were the only caller, you believe he can have an 8, a 6 or two wheel cards back, so you are in the dark except to feel certain he is not playing a brick.

Example 2 Riverplay:

You will be in this position many, many times in razz and one of the razz truths is: in a Mystery hand you are always blind at the river.  Because of this, you will check/call the river in the majority of cases.  Here are some outcomes and actions to consider.  For the sake of discussion, I will artificially move position from one player to the other, as in actual play, various hands place you in different positions:

You: (7 4) 5 Q 2 K 8
Opponent:  XX 2 J 7 7 X

You check – he bets: Obviously you are not folding this hand to one bet.  He may have made an 87 himself; he may have not improved at all and hopes his J is good.  He might just be trying to steal the hand.  You call.

He bets out: for the reasons stated above, you, of course, call.

You bet - he raises: This is why in almost every case, you do not bet a Mystery hand.  Check/calling the river is your default position.  It is possible he is bluff-raising; it is possible he has made a worse 87.  In any case, unless you have a read on this player that says he will not raise here without having made 7-perfect, you call. 

You: (7 4) 5 Q 2 K T
Opponent:  XX 2 J 7 7 X

You check – he bets:  Some players become so fixed on the hand they are trying to make, they see a T fall and think to themselves, “I missed my hand” and when their opponent bets out, they fold.  This is faulty thinking: you never really “miss” a hand; you just sometimes make a hand inferior to the one you were hoping for.  You have a hand here; you have T high. When you asked the five questions, one thing you and your opponent both knew is that he had the best hand on 6th street with the J high. Keep in mind why someone will bet the river in this situation:

• they improved and hope you did not improve more
• they did not improve and hope you did not – basically they are bluffing
• they improved but not as much as they wanted and hope they can scare you away

Don’t automatically assume on the river in this situation, that because he is betting, your opponent has a superior hand.  In this case, you have improved to a better hand than your opponent’s 6th street hand and may have the best hand, anyway.  Even if you caught a J, you may still have the best J high. Call with any J high better.

You can consider betting out in this situation to try and get a fold hoping your opponent hasn’t improved or hasn’t improved much.   This is a player-dependent issue.  Only if you believe the player very passive and you present an image as a good, tight player, should you try it.  In almost every case, however, with a Mystery kind of hand, an experienced player will call.  And, if you make a habit of this kind of bet, any profit can be lost when an opponent who has caught very well raises you. In general, when an opponent raises your river bet in a Mystery hand situation, he has made the hand he was hoping for.  The best time to bet/bluff a Mystery hand is when you have missed completely: 

You: (7 4) 5 Q 2 K K
Opponent:  XX 2 J 7 7 X

Unless your opponent paired the river, the only way for you to win is to bet and hope he believes you and is inexperienced enough to fold for one bet.  If he catches paint on the river, he just may. This bet is most successful against passive players or those who have just moved up a limit.  Against a solid, thinking opponent you play with regularly, check/fold this kind of hand once or twice.  Check/folding the river is a powerful psychological tool as players remember anyone willing to fold the river.  After that, bluff/bet them about every other time you have a hopeless hand with a good-looking board.  Because they know you are willing to fold when you miss, they will often believe you and fold when they do not improve a hand as marginal as J high.  The exception here is an aggressive experienced player who is going to call no matter what you have done in the past.

When you do get caught bluffing the river, be happy.  I note all players who have caught me, knowing they are money in the bank and are going to call with almost anything when I end up with a nut hand on the river.  If they bet first, I also know they will call a raise. 

Surprise!

Sometimes a Mystery hand is only a Mystery to you when your opponent makes the nuts on the river.  Sometimes it’s only a Mystery to your opponent.   

Making the nuts on the river in a Mystery hand is a different situation from having the Manna hand where your opponent can see he is very likely to be behind.  When you get a happy surprise on the river, you have your best chance for a check/raise.  If your opponent makes a good hand also, you can end up capping.  This is the only time I recommend checking the nuts, unless you are against a player you know check/calls this kind of hand as a default.   This works well because your opponents know you check/call with T high as well as with a made 86.  So when they make a 74 and you make a hidden 65 from a (A 2) 6 K 8 5 (3) board, they are going to bet when you check and at least call when you raise.

Value Betting the Non-nut Hand

You will sometimes have a very clear read on a player who is a common bricker or who checks when he pairs or has done some other thing to show weakness.  When you make a hand that appears vulnerable based only on the cards on his board, you can value bet the river based on other information.  That information includes player reads and betting patterns, the kinds of things covered in last month’s article. You can also value bet when the dead cards indicate your opponent has so few cards he could catch to make a better hand, it’s very unlikely he’s done so.   For example: 

River:
You: (4 2) 6 7 A A 2
Opponent: XX 3 A 8 8 X

You will value bet this river when one or more of these apply:

• Another 2 and a 4 folded on 3rd
• your opponent limped in on 3rd street
• your opponent check/called 4th street
• your opponent commonly plays a 9 or higher in the hole

 

One of the common mythologies of poker generally and certainly of razz is: If you value bet the river, you’ll only get called by a better hand.  This sentiment isn’t referring to having the nuts, but when you can’t know you have the nuts. Here is the actual outcome of the above hand played at 2/4 on Poker Stars:

The player labeled “opponent” here, held this hand: (5 8) 3 A 8 8 (7).  On 5th and 6th streets, this opponent called with a draw to an 8, into an apparently better made hand. He also called a value bet on the river. He seems never to have heard of question number five: “The likelihood you will beat your opponent if you catch the best possible river card.”

Bluffing the River

Because the average razz hand has about eight big bets in it by the river, you pretty much always have the odds to bluff unless you think there is virtually no chance your opponent will lay down.  This doesn’t make it a good idea to bluff every hopeless hand.  If you do, your opponents are going to notice and will stop laying down to you altogether, even on middle streets.   If you get to the river with an opponent where you have both checked it down and there are only four or fewer Big Bets in the pot, a bluff isn’t worth it.  While I have occasionally bluffed Mystery multi-way pots at micro against very inexperienced players, bluffing is best saved for heads-up situations.

Other then pot size, the key elements in deciding whether to bluff are:

• the character of your opponent’s play
• your table image
• the appearance of both boards
• the pattern of betting so far in the hand

If your opponent is a calling station on the river, or is an aggressive player who is also either loose or inexperienced, the chance of pulling off a bluff is small.  Loose passive or inexperienced but serious players, along with solid, tight players are your best candidates.  To make it easier and faster to decide whether to bluff during a hand, always note who you believe can or can’t be bluffed.

If you, yourself, have an image as a loose/aggressive player, bluffing is unlikely to be   successful for you against the tight, solid player and only the most passive or inexperienced will fall for it.  Having a tight, solid image is most useful when pulling off a bluff.   Additionally, if you have been having a bad session and are the table loser, your opponents are much less likely to believe you than if you are having a winning session where your opponents start to expect you to win.   Do not try desperation bluffs when you are down chips.

You must have a story to sell, and your board has to look like you either already made the best hand or could easily make the best hand on the river.  Moreover, it cannot be just barely the best hand.   You must be representing a hand at least two pips better than any hand your opponent has made and his hand must be at least a 9 high.   In other words, you are rarely, if ever, going to bluff with what looks like made 8.  You want a very convincing smooth 7, 6 or possible wheel. 

Your betting pattern throughout the hand tells a story also.  If you have been consistently betting out representing a big, made hand, or if you have been check/calling an obvious very good draw, you have a consistent story.  But if you checked 4th when you had the option or failed to raise when you had the chance with your “made” hand against your opponent’s weaker draw or worse hand, the story you are trying to sell won’t make sense to your opponent.

The Straightforward Counterfeit Manna Hand Bluff   

River:
You: (A 3) 6 A 3 2 (A)
Opponent: XX 7 J 8 K X

Avoid doing any “Hollywooding” when representing a big hand made on 5th street.  Don’t bet more slowly or quickly than normal.  Just play as you would if you had made that 6 on 5th street: bet or raise at every opportunity.   And hope he doesn’t make that 8 on the river he’s decided he’ll call you with.

Setting Up the Mystery Hand River Bluff on 6th Street

When you have a Mystery hand with a much better looking board, one way to set up a river bluff is to check 6th street.

6th Street
You: (4 3) 5 4 K 3
Opponent:  XX 8 6 Q J

Here, you are drawing dead unless your opponent has as many pairs as you do.  Conventional wisdom tells you to bet your hand and represent an already made big hand, hoping for a fold.  But, if you are going to put another bet into a dead hand, put it in where it has the highest probability of success.  If you are not confident your opponent will buy your bluff and fold his 8 draw here, check 6th street.  He’ll definitely sit up and take notice when the expected bet doesn’t come and be happy to take the free card and check behind.  (If he doesn’t, and you don’t want to fold, check/raise him.) 

He will believe you paired your 3, which you did.  And, simply because you are showing two wheel cards and he now knows you have a 3 in the hole, he’ll believe you’re drawing to a better hand than his.  If he thinks you paired and are drawing to a big hand, he just hopes to make his 8 (of course, you have most of the cards he needs to do that) while you brick the river. 

At the river, bet at him.  If you aren’t folding this hand, you were going to bluff-bet 6th street, anyway.  It is quite likely he will groan inwardly about you hitting your draw and fold, even if he has made his 8.  He’ll sometimes do this because on 6th street you convinced him you are an “honest” player who checks when he pairs and also that you don’t want to put more money into a hand you are not sure is a winner.  Conversely, you might have convinced him you made a big hand on 6th and his 8 was never going to be any good.  He believes you tried to check/raise him.  Now that you have bet, he folds, congratulating himself for getting away so cheaply and outsmarting you.

I am not usually a fan of “fancy plays” and rarely use them.  But in this very specific situation, use your opponent’s imagination as your own weapon.

Generally…

For the most part, your best river strategy is to bet your Manna hands and check/call your made Mystery hands when someone can draw out on you.  Use this as your standard: check/call any hand on the river that, if you bet and it was raised, you’d want to fold.  Possibly the worst play in razz is bet/folding the river.

Don’t be eager to fold the river in a Mystery hand unless you are convinced you are dead and have little chance of bluffing successfully.  While I’ll usually fold paint, unless my opponent has paint showing, I have check/called an unknown or inexperienced player, or a loose aggressive player with a K and won when he bluffed with a worse K or a pair.  Keep in mind that this kind of call is very player-dependent.  Don’t go calling off a lot of river chips with paint against good solid regulars whose game you should be familiar enough with to know when folding is the best option.  Remember that the regulars you play with know you consistently check/call the river, so if one of these players bets the river, you will give them more credit for a hand and can fold your marginal holdings.

  

You call with many marginal hands for one bet because you are always playing the metagame.  If you fold too many 9s or Ts, or even Js, your opponents will bluff you with pairs and paint at every opportunity when they miss their own draws in Mystery hands.  If your opponents see you check/call with winning hands as well as losing ones, they will not know, when you check, if you have a hand or don’t and will learn to check behind you.  Because you will call with a wide range of hands, they will learn not to bluff at you.

The last word about rivers I have is that you really shouldn’t be seeing that many of them.  A razz hand is something you should enter cautiously and stay in reluctantly.  You should expect to win or abandon your hand prior to the river over 90% of the time.  But once you’ve gotten there, be stubborn about relinquishing your claim on the pot.