Three way at the turn with a monster, jam or just call?

I only read the first half but call is the clear answer and it's not close.

Not sure I understand the questions being asked. Is this about letting V improve to a hand that can call a jam on the river versus getting max value now, before V's draws miss and he shuts down on the river?

H1 - If V2 has trips, he's drawing slim to make a bigger boat, so just call and plan to jam river. If we think V is on a flush draw or open-ended, also just call. The only reason to jam is if we think V2 will call off with his draws, but won't call a bet on the river when his draws miss.

H2 - Doubtful V2 is on a draw, so here again, he's drawing slim to boat up or chop. If we think V also has AQ, jam turn, because we're free-rolling to a flush. If we think V is going to call a turn jam with 2P, sets, and draws, but shut down on a 3rd spade, jam now. Otherwise, just call.

The thing about over-jamming is that V2's calling range needs to be super-strong, or he's got to have a super draw to the nuts, because he has to beat both hero and V1 for the main pot, assuming the main pot is bigger.

It really just depends on V and how strong you think they are or how much they will chase. How we got here matters, too.

In a vacuum, I probably jam both hoping V has a 6 and a straight.

I would jam as nobody should ever bluff river (dry side pot) so jam now targetting both value and draws

Same.

I certainly agree that it is very villain-dependent!

In H1,

On a different board but similar runout (paired, lower cards), it was an all-in, a call, and another call on the turn. On the river it was an all-in and a fold. The player who folded in the end said he had a big pair, and on the turn he did not have enough time to think thru what was happening (assuming a relatively inexperienced player) and wasn't mentally ready to waive goodbye to his big pairs, but at the river he realised that they were no good.

I think it was a difficult decision because no matter what we choose, whatever happens next in reality may prove the other option could have gained us more value. At this stake level, psychological factors play a big part in lots of players - sometimes they have weakness folding that hand, even though they know the odds were no good.

I believe that there are lots of factors affecting our opponent's decision (folds to a jam, calls a jam, or makes a jam himself), apart from the odds he's given.

In H1, if the villain has a trip, but the kicker is very weak such as 64, or an overpair like KK, they may still ’mistakingly' overcall the turn but folds to the jam at the river, even though that at the river they only need to call £200 to possibly win a £1200. I've seen a couple of these examples in live poker.

On the turn they may not know what they are doing, and do not have a plan for the river, and just think their hands are too strong to fold NOW. They may feel differently at the river.

In each individual pot the max-value play must be very villain-dependent, I just wondered if there is a consensus on our highest EV move in general on the turn.

Even if we agree that when you have a boat, calling is way better than jamming, but calling £200 to create a pot worth £800 + with £100 behind (Q2), might look a bit like a muggle.

Yeah, I don't know what a muggle is, but I assume it's bad.

These decisions to go for max value with a monster now vs letting our opponent catch up (or not) aren't too different than a decision to go for max protection with a nutted but vulnerable hand vs risking an opponent catching up (or not). There are no easy "always do X" answers.

The action we take should be supported by sound reasoning, taking into account the pre-flop action, stack depths, our opponents' tendencies, their / our ranges and positions, etc.

My general stance is that it can't be too wrong to go for max value (or max protection, if that's the case) sooner rather than later, simply because we don't know what the next card(s) will be. When we're OOP, and when our hand is very disguised, I'm even more likely to go for more value sooner.

If these were heads-up:

H1 - assuming hero in HJ opened 33, and has a lot of over-pairs and unpaired flush draws in his range, I'd be trying to shovel money into the pot as fast as possible, by betting big on flop and barreling big on turn, expecting V to have 6x that wants to raise, or a flush draw that doesn't want to fold. What else can he have that wants to continue?

H2 - again assuming hero opened UTG, I'd be checking / check-calling flop, then betting out on the turn, hoping V has KJ, KT, or JT, and thinks we just have AA, AK, a flush draw, or a boldly-played QQ. How can he continue with worse than 2P on this board?

But these hands being multi-way with another player left to act after us adds a layer of complexity, opening up the question of flat calling or re-jamming. Either will look strong, and arguably, either might allow us to have some non-nutted hands. Either might bring our other opponent along. It's kind of hard to screw these situations up when we have such strong hands.

In both of these examples, we have very strong hands that aren't very vulnerable vs our opponents' ranges. And with the flush draw potential in both, I think it's fine to just call in both scenarios. But otherwise, if we think V is more likely to call with a hand that can improve than he is to fold, we should jam, and get our value before the river bricks out.

In H1, say V has 67, and the river is a 7. We were going to lose a big pot anyway. If the river brings in the flush, he might still call with 67, or he might fold. If he was on the flush draw that bricks out, we might induce a bluff if we check, but that's unlikely when the other V is already all-in.

In H2, say V has KJ. He might call a jam. He might fold. He's probably not calling a river jam if we just call turn. He's probably not going to value bet thin if we check a spade, and he may or may not v-bet thin if we check a brick.

In multi-way pots, it's hard for everyone to have a very strong hand. When a player jams a short-stack OOP, the player behind us has to have a fairly strong hand or very good draw to over-call or call a re-jam. His strong hands might improve to beat us, or his draws may brick out.

There's a risk of losing value no matter what we do. So neither flat calling or jamming can ever be right always or wrong always.