Shall I fold my second nut flush on the turn facing a 2.5x pot jam?

What happened with this one?

Unfortunately we did not quite find out the mystery in the end.

Follow V3 to every table!

The fact that V3 had a 7 dramatically reduces the number of boats V1 could have, and makes it impossible she had quads.

I wasn't even thinking about how V3's jamming range changes what V1 could have, but if we were to think about it, and we think he's got some 7x in his jamming range, then we're beating enough of her range to make it easier for us to call her turn jam.

We would have lost the smaller main pot to V3, but I think there was a good chance we would have scooped the bigger side pot against V1.

This is why I would have preferred putting in a raise over V3's jam with the 2nd nut flush, planning to fold to a 3B. She's extremely unlikely to turn a worse hand into a bluff by re-raising, and will be more likely to flat call with her entire range. If she does raise, it's an easy fold.

If we raised to 75 on turn, and she calls, the pot would be just under 300 going to the river, and she'd have about 345 behind.

On river, we could block bet ~40% pot, around 120, and still call off a jam, getting 2.4 to 1, confident that her thickest value would have jammed turn at some frequency.

Yes. Also this.

One person having a 7 also blocks the other person having trips, which is one of the few hands worse than ours they might raise.

It also _unblocks_ 66 and nut flushes, and the reaction of being annoyed means we "know" she had better than T7 (so not 75s/87/97s) and being annoyed weights it to be stronger (at the very least relative to the shown hand), IMO.
So more likely to be nut flush to 66/76, or maybe K7s/A7, than a 43s type hand which expects to lose more often to higher flushes and boats.

So if I could see into the future, but get a "new random" river card, I'd lean more towards folding.

But that's all imperfect information.

On the hindsight hero could have played this hand a lot better. V1's overjam did put me in an awkward spot and I did not expect that from such a passive table at all.

Now we know that V3 had a trip at the turn, but given V3's image, this kind of players on the turn could be jamming with Acx, a worse flush, a boat and even quads, or other hands we wouldn't traditionally think a rational player would do, I mean, why would any rational player call the flop with a mid pair and kicker T with £25 left behind? On the turn, given V3 was the first to act, and had not very much at all left, it's nearly impossible to narrow down his hands, especially we are not even sure whether he knows what he's doing.

V1 wouldn't strike me a as someone like V3 who would call the flop with just a pair of 7s and jams on the turn with a trip. Nope. Without more hand history with V1, I had to cry fold.

If V1 is the type who always jams with a worse flush, like 34cc, it may be a losing play at this stake level I'm afraid.

I suppose from her facial expression we can't tell whether she was more likely to have A4cc or 34cc, because these two hands had the same equity vs V3's 7To at the turn. K7 would be beating 7t so she would not have K7 either.

It made me wonder if we were V1, if we had A4cc how should we play the turn? And if we were V1 with 34cc?

The logic for finding a fold here seems inconsistent, or at least, problematic to me. People in the fold camp are saying she just always has "it" here. But what is "it"?

If we think she's just never jamming without the nuts, that would be one combo of 77. Are we saying we're folding everything else here, including KK?

If we're not folding KK, then she has to have some hands that are NOT the nuts. If she's jamming a range that includes some hands that are not the nuts, then she has to be willing to accept the risk that she loses sometimes. We have to look at this from her perspective, if we think she's some sort of passive-nit who only jams when she thinks she's (almost) always winning.

Let's say she's only jamming her boats, not her nut flushes. I can't give her credit for playing KK this way, but if she does, she could lose to one combo of 77. If we're giving her 76, she loses to 3 combos of KK. If we give her 66, she loses to 3 combos of KK, 2 of 76, and 1 of 77.

Suddenly, she goes from "always got it" to throwing caution to the wind, jamming into as many as 6 better hands we could have?

If she's only jamming boats, not flushes, what is she targeting for value? We only have 9 combos of nut flushes here. Are we supposed to call off her 2.5x over-bet re-jam with EVERY flush, including 2nd/3rd nuts, or (gasp) trips?

If she's jamming all her nut flushes, she's losing to 1x77, 3xKK, 3x66, and 2x66 (9 combos that beat her). But what is she targeting for value, when she has the Ac and the Kc is on board? How many QXcc do we have that open UTG, and are going to flat call the BB's jam, and then also call her ridiculously strong 2.5x over-bet re-jam?

Other than QJ, maybe we have QT or Q9, and occasionally Q8. At most, she can only target 4 flush combos for value here, when she's losing to 9 combos of boats/quads. Now she's a loose-maniac compared to "always got it".

Saying we have to fold because she's only jamming when she's sure she's winning doesn't make sense, unless we're folding everything, including KK. The farther down we go in her range, the more hands we could have that she loses to, and the fewer hands she can target for value.

In other words, the more value combos we give her, the less she "always has it", and the more willing she is to shove when she doesn't have it.

MDF says we need to call here with the top 29% of our range when she jams 420 into 171. If we get here with every PP from 88-AA (36 combos excl. KK), and AKo/s (12 combos), and we fold all of them, that's 48 combos. If we call with quads, boats, and nut flushes, that's only 18 combos, or 27% of our range, which isn't enough. We have to add at least 2 QX combos to get to MDF.

If we're not opening UTG with Q9/Q8, then all we have are QJ and QT. QJ might be the worst combo in our MDF range, because it blocks her from having some J-high flushes, but it's still too high up in our range to fold, unless we have some Q9/Q8 in our UTG open range.

It's a call when we look at pot odds and the reasonable ranges for hands we beat vs hands that beat us. It's a call when we look at MDF.

The only way to rationalize folding here is if we say she NEVER has trip 7's or worse flushes here, because she's too chicken-$hlt to ever jam a hand that MIGHT lose. But the fact is that other than 77, all her better hands lose to something in our range, which means she MUST be willing to jam some hands that MIGHT lose.

If she's chicken-$hlt, she's not flat-calling this wet flop multi-way with 2P or sets, so she has no boats here. She could have 7 better flushes, but we're under-repped and getting 1.5 to 1. We only need her to have 3 worse flushes to make this a snap-call. She can have T9, 98, and either 54 or T8, take your pick.

It = Something she thinks is the best hand, and it mostly likely got better with the turn card.

Can she slow play 77/66 on the flop? Sure, I would only give her 2 of the 4 combos. though.

Can she just call 76s on the flop because she doesn't want to raise and see a bad turn or just raise big and get folds ... but now has the nuts on the turn. Sure.

Can she call Ac7x on the flop (assuming she calls pre) and then decide it's the nuts on the turn? Maybe, but given the reads I think it's a low frequency call pre. and even the flop call is marginal. Then the turn raise assumes she thinks nobody ever has a flush.

Can she Play all 7 of the NF hands this way, yes.

Can she play Tc9c/9c8c this way, pre. and flop are very likely but I wouldn't expect turn shoves as much with either. Maybe she shoves hoping AcX hands fold from hero.

5c4c is asking a lot for the call pre. ... and then the turn shove is also assuming she decides it's the nuts and needs protection.

So 4ish FHes (but more like 2 after the information), and 7 nut flushes.

Then maybe 2 worse flushes, and _maybe_ some A7 hands (but those also go down a lot after the reveal).

Now I'm not sure about MDF and our ranges (we can certainly have KK and a bunch of the nut flushes, 77/66/76s might or might not open UTG) but with our _hand_ we need about 41% equity vs. her range to call 420 into the 171+420 pot.

I can't remember how to weight certain cards so we only get 50% of 66 etc. but this removes 77 and gives her all of Ac7x...

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Kc7s6c7c
PLAYER_1 QcJc
PLAYER_2 Tc9c,9c8c,66,7x6x,Ac7,Ax7x,Ac*c
792 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
QcJc|26.1364%|26.1364%|0.0000%|207|0|
Tc9c,9c8c,66,7x6x,Ac...|73.8636%|73.8636%|0.0000%|585|0|
[/table]

...we can get to exactly 41% if we:

1. remove 66 completely.
2. give her all combos. of A7o

...adding 5c4c boosts us to 43%.

BUT if we say there's a dead 7, it gets significantly worse:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Kc7s6c7c Dead - 7
PLAYER_1 QcJc
PLAYER_2 Tc9c,9c8c,7x6x,A7,Ac*c,5c4c
1290 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
QcJc|39.2248%|39.2248%|0.0000%|506|0|
Tc9c,9c8c,7x6x,A7,Ac...|60.7752%|60.7752%|0.0000%|784|0|
[/table]

It's the turn so MDF doesn't apply as much, and BTN was behind so MDF is shared. Side pot makes bluffing even worse for CO.

Next time I see this player I will try to ask her what her hand was!

It is so exciting to see these analysis! Wish I started posting hands in this forum much earlier! Thanks bro.

My reasoning is that she's almost never slow-playing 77, 66, or 76 on this wet flop, multi-way, then deciding to jam turn when she boats up. Of the five combos of 77, 66, and 76, I might give here one combo, but I think even that is likely one to many. Now that we know she couldn't have 77, I think we can say she doesn't have any of those combos.

I would think she'd be more likely to jam all those hands, and all the nut flushes, but not worse flushes or trips, if we'd raised over BB's jam. When we just flat call BB's jam, I think it becomes more likely she jams T9, 98, and if she has it, T8 or 54.

I'm not arguing it's an easy call, or a terrible fold. I'm only saying that if we just flat call the BB's jam, it opens the door for her to over-value some worse hands that benefit from some protection, and so it's not an automatic fold. I don't agree that she just always has it here.

I think the fact that she didn't show that she took a bad beat by showing AX makes it more likely she had a worse flush. I strongly suspect it was T9/T8, because of how she tank-folded when V3 shows he had T7. Her having a T in her hand means he hit a two-outer, which is why she looks pissed - her better TX had him beat the whole way, until the river.

Out of curiosity, on the river, did V3 just fast roll his hand so quickly that she never had the chance to roll hers over first? Or did it seem like she might be a little hesitant to roll hers over regardless?

I'm just wondering if she might have fast rolled the nut flush, but was slow to turn her hand over because V3 might have the nut flush, and she'd have preferred not to show a weak flush after she jammed, if she was beat.

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I think in this casino the rule is that if no action on the river (all-in on the turn already) then the earliest position player shows first, and some dealers would be staring at that player hinting 'hey it's on you to show now'. but I could be wrong.

In general comparing to the US, players here are not very keen on fast rolling at all. Once I had a straight against someone else' FH and he waited for me to show just to make sure I don't have quads before he tabled his cards. I'm afraid the speed of rolling may not be an accurate sign.

I believe the general rule is that if one player bets/jams and gets called, that player is to show first. That said, players here will often fast-roll their hands when they've got the nuts, or just a very strong hand, as a matter of courtesy.

Last night, I played with a couple of Euros, and was struck when one of them called a river bet, and forced his opponent to turn over his hand, even after the bettor said, "you're good, I missed, ten-high."

Well I guess I am also being considered one of the 'Euros' here. Usually if a bettor said 'ten-high' and if he looks like he knows what he's talking about, I would take his word for it.

I can share a bad experience why sometimes we 'Euros' would rather the bettor 'show or muck'. Once when it came to showdown there was this old man who flipped over one card Ace - normally that represents Ace high so I then showed my overpair. After seeing my hand the guy flipped over the second card which was a 5 so he won with a straight.

I wouldnt be surprised sometimes people verbally announce 10-high and later on showed a set of tens and still got to win the pot. It doesn't happen often at all, but when you have this experience once you would be affected by it psychologically for quite a while.

Having many friends in the UK, I don't lump you in with the Euros, generally, but to the extent the poker etiquette more closely resembles the Euros than the 'Muricans, yeah, you're probably close enough.

What you're describing would generally fall under the headings of angling or slow-rolling.

The rules for showdown / scooping differ from place to place, apparently, even within the US.

In my local card room, if we bet and get called, we can't just show one card and scoop. We're allowed to muck if we don't want to show, but we can't show just one and win. Likewise, even if we get called and muck, our opponent who called still has to show his cards to scoop.

Most players who understand this rule will hold onto their cards until they see their opponents' cards, whether they bet and got called, or called. It can and does create some awkward situations, and increases the likelihood of someone looking like a jacka$$.

So, in the example I gave, if the player who bet and got called didn't want to show if he didn't have to, he'd say, "I missed, ten high" (but hold onto his cards), at which point the other player would just roll his cards over to show the winner (better than ten high).

The player who called can wait and force his opponent to show, but it's generally considered bad etiquette, and tantamount to a slow-roll, because it's extremely unusual for someone to say "ten high" with a better hand. Forcing the man to show his hand is just adding insult to injury.

Likewise, it would be extremely bad etiquette for the player who said "ten high" to show a better hand, if he were to do it deliberately, rather than being a mistake, like mis-reading or mis-remembering his cards.

There again, it isn't too uncommon for someone to claim a better hand, but this is more commonly done as an angle - the intent is to trick an opponent into mucking the winning hand. No one would say "ten high" in that scenario, but rather "two pair" or some such.

Other places in the US, if a player bets and gets called, and he mucks his cards without showing, the player who called does NOT have to show any cards, and is just awarded the pot.

No

No. I don’t care how good the read is, you just call. The turn is gin, stakes too low, you are overthinking this.

This is a trivially easy fold. Cant believe its this long of a thread.

You lose to AcXc/K7/76/77/66. Bonus, it went 4 ways to the turn so more likely someone (like, say. The person who bet 2.5x pot) has one of these hands. Double bonus, its a protected pot so she isnt semi bluffing

Well the nuts is 77, and the second nuts (KK) she doesnt have, and is unlikely to have the third nuts (K7), but is also jamming the 4th nuts (76) and the 5th nuts (66) and the 6th nuts (AcXc) but ya know, better call with the 7th nuts (QcXc) just in case she also jams the 9th nuts (since hero blocks the 8th nuts JcXc) because wed feel sad if she flipped over Tc9c

The ONLY reason MDF matters is to avoid bluffs being instantly profitable, and here you admit you think she basically cant be bluffing. She isnt hitting her minimum bluff frequency here, and its a protected pot which throws MDF completely out the window because you cant profit off a bluff into a protected pot, so MDF is beyond irrelevant and a complete misuse of this concept

This emotion, which we all have, is why we even consider terrible calls like this. Its ok if youre ahead of part of their range. Its ok to be bluffed.