Should I call this river probe raise?

I'm not folding and I'm not raising, so I guess I'm calling.

Arghhh I'm hating life right now. I think this is more likely a boat than a flush.

I feel we're not good here most of the time against a solid reg, but I think there are probably enough flushes and some rare bluffs in his range to make a call profitable.

As for raising, I just don't see a solid reg calling this off with less than a boat.

You can raise or call flop, once the 7 comes in if you raised flop you can lead big turn repping a straight or boat, so you can lead big river when you miss. As played you are playing a flush face up but you can still call river raise because he won't put you on the nut flush and might value kill himself with worse flush.

Actually even if you had just called flop you can lead small turn because you have such an insane range lead. Not sure if I like how you played the hand but yeah not folding

This looks exactly like TT and nothing else I would jus fold, no winning player's raising that much with less then a FH. I would just make a sigh fold.

I think TT is defo most likely, though the insta check behind on the turn makes me think 77 is a possibility, as I think he'd at least consider betting again with TT, even if he lands on probably the right decision which is check.

I think there might be enough Kx flushes and some very rare bluffs to just give us enough to call at this price, even though we lose majority of time.

Yes, my main concerns were of course 77 (especially after the snap check back on the turn) and TT. Of the UTG opening range, realistically I think there is only K♠Q♠ and K♠J♠ that might consider raising the river. Q♠J♠ is probably just calling (?) but I'm not sure. No other UTG opening range flushes get to the river - I'm blocking a lot of them with the A♠ of course.

I don't see many bluffs here either. A lot of players might also want to use the A♠ blocker to bluff raise this river, but that's in my hand.

I've already run this hand through a solver, and of course it's snapping off the raise without a second thought - in fact, it doesn't fold any flushes (!) - but it is of course assuming that villain is bluffing a lot more than most winning regs do at $2/$5. So in solverland/at MDF this is a straightforward call - but I think it's important to make adjustments when playing live.

Do villains pot-control/protect checkback ranges with TT on this turn? Some certainly do, but I'd argue that the majority don't.

I need to call and win 215/915 x 100 (27.2%) of the time to break even. Whether or not the river raise is a value cut/bluff 27.2% of the time is the question...

Yeah, it could be 77, but either way if he has a clue it's at least a FH (I thought it would be TT more than 77 because of his raise size).

I actually don't think TT is very likely, since I assume a solid reg would need at least a few moments to decide between betting and checking the turn. In addition, 66/33 would just seem odd, since why would the Villain bet his monster on a flop that likely missed Hero?

The only better hand that makes any sense is 77, but I'm definitely not folding when there are only 3 exact hands he can have.

Also agree with Boomshackalaka that there's a decent argument for leading this turn. I think we have range advantage and we would pressure a lot of V's range here. We have 54s and A3s too. It also sets up river bluffs better on cards favoring our range.

Cannot fold the nut flush getting ~2-1 on the river. If he has a boat, he's getting my money.

You wanna fold even the nut flush, but if villain has a clue he has at least a full house? That's a weird thing to say. If we're happily folding flushes up to and even including the nut flush, then he should have some bluffs in his range if he has a clue, shouldn’t he? I get what you mean, though, because he can't assume we're gonna fold a flush, but still... I don't wanna fold the nut flush here.

Folding here seems rather silly.

He over bet raised 300 into 190 on a paired board after he cbet almost pot otf OOP in a 4 way hand. Is a good player firing away on that type of flop with 4 players first to act with Ax or other hands he could turn into a bluff otr? Then after he checked back the turn, hero leading out is indicating he has a strong hand. His raise sizing looks like he's trying to get paid off vs a flush or lower boat and there's nothing to indicate he's a bluffer/button presser. He was described as a "solid winning reg". I would fold and be happy he raised so much to help me play perfectly (if his read is correct), but that's just me ofc.

No, he raised to $300 after Hero bet $85 into $190.

It's not gonna make a diff. I still fold and don't care if he bluffed, this is gonna be fat value almost 97% of the time.

If you fold a nut flush on the river here and anyone ever finds out you are going to get super exploited by that player in the future. maybe doesn't matter at low stakes but worth keeping in mind as you move up.

The only had that makes sense for villain is 77 and even that... I mean if people have flush draws, they can still call your turn bet because they don't know you have a full house.

Having said that, it is true that river check raises are underbluffed. I guess that we can call with our own full houses. I won't begrudge anyone calling here with the nut flush though.

What hands do you think villain is raising the river with?

I already mentioned above, for value mostly worse flushes, boats, maybe the occasional over-pair with spade blocker because you went so small. I don't expect 45s in most villain range but some open any suited connectors. For bluffs if they think you are capable of folding flushes on this river then any boat blocker i.e. 6x, 7x, 10x. And if I see you fold it face up I'm going to exploit you like crazy in similar runout in the future.

Okay so let's dial it back a bit - what exact combos do you think UTG raises in a full ring game, bets the flop into three players, checks back the turn heads up and then raises facing a river probe, expecting to get called by worse hands? And what exact combos do you think they balance with as bluffs? Are you saying that they might turn an overpair with a spade blocker into a bluff? What overpairs are you betting into three players on the flop and then checking back with on the turn? There is a very small amount of 7x and 6x in the UTG opening range, and I have a hard time believing that a solid player is going to cbet this flop with 87s, 76s or 65s into three players. In other words, UTG has very few natural bluffs here, at least as far as I can see. The only way they can get to the river with the A of spades blocker is if they cbet with AKo/AQo/AJo/ATo, which again I think is unlikely in a multiway pot (and in this specific case I have the ace of spades in my hand). In order to arrive at the river with a Tx hand to use as a bluff UTG would have to cbet into three players with ATo/ATs/KTs/QTs/JTs (again unlikely). The KT/QT/JT of spades might cbet multiway, but these hands are discounted once the T♠ comes on the river.

Things are further complicated by UTG checking back the turn and ostensibly capping their range, then re-polarizing with the raise on the river (in a situation where there don't seem to be many obvious hands to use as bluffs - i.e. as far as I can tell, a clear case of a value-heavy raise).

The only hands that I think UTG can raise for value on the river expecting to get called by worse are 66, 77, TT, K♠Q♠ and K♠J♠ - and which of these check back the turn and why is hard to say. I think raising Q♠J♠ on the river (the only other broadway flush combo that UTG could have) is probably too thin, not to mention the fact that with the flush draw completing UTG is somewhat lacking in bluff combos and probably can't value bet too wide without getting imbalanced as a result. Once they check back the (apparently innocuous) turn a lot of their range is showdown-bound or going to go for thin value on safe rivers (for example when they have overpairs and the river is a blank), but that doesn't apply here with the flush completing and makes the river raise even more surprising.

id reluctantly call. think you have a pure bluff catcher and there are large contingents of the low / mid stakes reg community that wont bluff here so if thats the case you want to make, the conclusion will end up being fold. im not really sure what hes supposed to have when he bets 60 otf but even the river sizing by him doesnt make that much sense - i will say it looks suspiciously like someone not great thinking that they are raising large. can be convinced to attack the flop when he does this too but would mostly just c/c. idk there just doesn't seem to really be enough evidence to fold this and i kind of doubt u get here with better often - do you really half pot the river with 77 / tt if you have them? do you pure peel 77 when he basically pots into 3 opps blah blah?

i think in general your river bet sizing is poor here as you've chosen a size that doesn't get raised often if ever by worse value hands and doesnt really maximize vs 2nd best hands

Yes I agree this is definitely a value-heavy/underbluffed spot. I'm guessing the large flop bet is in part with "vulnerable overpairs"? Also agree that there is not much evidence to encourage a fold, other than the fact that it's clearly a very value-heavy spot and unlikely that Kx flushes are raising the river. But I'm certainly very close to the top of my range and don't get here with much better (except for perhaps slow-played 66, 33 and a few combos of 77 that peeled flop).

Definitely the river sizing was wrong on my part; that was just a miscalculation in the heat of the moment. I would usually go to about 66% pot here. UTG has largely capped their range with the check back on the turn so I'm sizing down a little to get called by more of that capped range - and I was certainly not expecting to get raised. I can get called by the UTG's flushes and overpairs that pot-controlled the turn, etc.

my contention is you're less likely to miscount the pot with those hands (or choose a different option either earlier in the hand or now) so u r prob literal top of range

would shrug and call and expect to lose

Lol sure, I probably bet more precisely when I have a boat.

I would play 33, 66, 77 and TT in the same way as I played this hand (but with a larger river bet of about 66% pot). I'm not check-raising 33 or 66, and I'm probably check-calling 77 and TT. I don't get to the river with many bluff combos, especially as the flush draw completes, so I believe that prevents me from betting with a much larger size (but I could be wrong, I may take a look at ranges tomorrow if there's some interest in the hand).

map your river sizes to your value bets (occasionally this changes bc blockers) not bluffs.

u could find bluffs with i have no idea, certainly 88 and 99, 6x, potntially 55 or 44, potentially gutters with a bd, maybe AQ / AK or something with a bd.

fwiw simmed vs ep facing a 125% psb otf which i think is reasonableish comparison, river will split between 65 and 130%, a9ss will pure 130%. it occasionally blocks too