Overbetting the turn and river against a passive nit.

If villain is really a nit give up. When he calls turn he has a hand he doesn't want to fold and is likely to call river also. Against a real nit there is no reason to over bet the turn either, $40 will get him to fold any hand he is going to fold. The only hand you can bluff out are missed nut flush draws but most nits won't over pay on the turn with just a draw.

I would use overbet bluffs sparingly. This is sort of a semibluff, but the overbet has to work too much of the time. Not crazy about overbetting turn and river to get someone to fold. Live fish tend to call or fold regardless of sizing.

Not sure we need to overbet turn. Betting 25 on turn and pot on river is going to generate a lot more river folds.

As played we should bomb river for 250. He has a lot of 1 pair hands that are in a bad spot.

I wouldn’t iso this hand pre, especially oop.

y u check the flop, think turn doesnt make much sense to me and idk what to do now, sucks turn brings bdfd because u cant really give up river. i think ur line in general dont make much sense though game plan wise. range bet flop is going to show a ton of profit u dont need to start doing crazy stuff

oh yah, pre is mediocre too

issue with overbetting turn is uve filtered him down to like 2p+, some kq type stuff, and some strong draw type hands. would be better to keep range wider then go for it if u wanna bluff turn and river

Not sure why you're not betting the flop - granted it's not a bad flop for your opponent but you have the nut open ender, backdoor flush draw, and a range advantage. The problem with these types of players is they usually call too wide and if they make top pair won't fold - I agree he could have KQ and probably doesn't fold. You also need to know with the turn/river overbet line it needs to work at an extremely high rate mathematically for it to be profitable. I would start betting more flops to uncap your range and give you more maneuverability on future streets.

Yeah, preflop and flop seem questionable.

This is a very wet board, so not good to overbet even if you have a nut advantage, since he can have a lot of 2-pair, pair and OESD, etc. If you wanted to build the pot, you would bet the flop, so check flop / twice pot on turn doesn't make that much sense. It is also overkill to win a small pot.

Tight passive players = rocks.

They over-fold the weaker parts of their range to aggression, and bluff-catch with most of the rest of their range, only getting aggro themselves when they're nutted.

Against that sort of opponent, I just bet my good-better-best hands and check-fold the rest.

Here, I don't like the raise pre, because he's likely to limp with most of his range, and we'll be playing OOP post flop, with a not very playable hand. Think we could bet flop with our OESD, and take it down a lot if we limped pre, but not as often when we raise and he calls, strengthening his range on this board.

As played after raising pre, I still think we could bet flop, for a small size, like 1/3 pot, but check-calling a small bet is probably better, with a plan to check-fold turn if we don't pick up equity on the turn.

Not sure what to make of your turn 2x over-bet. Would you take that size with AK here? It looks like you're trying to protect 2P+ against a flush draw. But we unblock all the 2P combos, and I don't think he's calling this bet with just 1P or a draw. He's probably got at least KQ (TP + an OESD), but he could have 2P, or even TT. Occasionally maybe he has some sort of big combo draw.

I'd have just checked turn, and called a small bet. If we picked up a BDFD, I'd like this big bet more. But I think we're better off playing small ball against rocks, especially with lower equity hands.

But as played, he'll probably fold KQ and JT and all his missed combo draws if we bet $400 on the river. Not sure if he folds QJ. It's good to block K9/AK and unblock clubs.

As played overbet river. Something like 400.

On this flop I would actually cbet and plan to barrel off 3 streets a fair amount. This is the nut hand to do it with, blocking K9 and 98. And it is pretty clear you can have AK and villains shouldn't. They also aren't going to have many if any sets on the flop.

Pre I don't love isoing this hand though. KTs I definitely ISO and K9s borderline. Esp if you are getting limp called by Ax and KQo, KJo type hands.

I like the play thus far and think a bet of $500-$700 or so is warranted on the river. I think that's about the price that people will start folding two-pair hands for. If you think villain is never folding two-pair hands, probably just bet a little smaller, something like $300-$400 to fold out one-pair hands like KQ/AQ that got sticky with the gutshot.

Pre: not sure I’m iso-ing K8s out of the SB. If I were, it would be more than 5x over 1 late position limper.

Flop: when I’m OOP, if players will monkey bet, I’ll check my whole range. This V won’t bet unless they have a monster, which they will fast play. 1st thing is you can be relatively certain V doesn’t have AK based on history. Gotta bet this flop. Bet 1/2 pot and if he raises, evaluate. We have OESD+BDFD, so depending what the raise is will determine calling/folding. If he just calls, get ready to empty the tank, he should only have 1P max.

Turn: assuming he calls, pot would be $100. Want him to call and fold the river. Probably going 125-175. Gotta think he has a hand with some combination of 1P, FD, SD.

River: assuming he calls, pot would be 350-450. We’re 1300+ behind and everything bricks. If I had value, I’d be targeting an amount that 1P can call, maybe like 40-60% psb. With a bluff, obviously we can’t have him getting sticky, so I’d be looking for an amount that discourages getting sticky, especially when we have a blocker to the nuts. Probably would think about something in the 2.5x-3x range. I tend to error big because I don’t want hero calls. If I bet 2x and they call with 1 pair, that’s a disaster especially if he would fold to 2.5x

——
As played:

Pre: already said I wasn’t a fan. Size is too small too.

OTF: I’m not a huge fan of checking here. Checking against this opponent if we had 2P+ would be terrible unless we’re coolering him

OTT: i guess it’s ok. The point is to get him to call turn, fold river. He called. Gotta follow through OTR

OTR: basically the same as my river assessment above. Gotta bet amount he won’t call with 1P.

As far as preflop is concerned, I would squeeze K9s pre but probably fold K8s most of the time.

Postflop, you made a similar mistake to what you did in this hand:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/170/l...

I.e. it's a high board that checked through on the flop, a low turn card came, you then you started betting. It doesn't make sense. Your hand definitely has good blockers for bluffing, but if you're going to go down that route then you should do it from the flop. This flop should be much better for you than him. There are a few different schools of thought on how to play the flop when out of position; some people will check 100% of hands (even as the raiser) and others will bet a polarized range. There are merits to both approaches. Against a nitty opponent who is likely to overfold, I'd go with a small bet of around 33-50% pot. Usually he's gonna raise with two pair or better vs that size. If he just calls, you can then certainly overbet the turn and jam good rivers. You're blocking both ends of the straight and unblocking the missed flush draw, which all points to this being a good bluff combo. You're pretty deep too, so if he just called on the flop I would be tempted to go huge with the turn overbet, 2x pot minimum (not solver approved, but a good way to exploit low stakes noobs who are going to overfold).