River overbet against a capped range
5/5
CO - unknown
CO raises to $20, Hero(BB) 9♦8♦ calls
Flop($45) K♥ J♠ 6♠
x x
Turn($45) Q♦
So overall, he should have bet on this flop. After he checked, I put him on a pretty weak range consisting of Jx, possibly some flush draws, and weak kings like K9.
I decide to bet small because I think a $20 or $40 bet has zero fold equity against the hands I mentioned. But a $20 bet is cheaper and can still fold out things like Ax, connectors or small pairs.
Hero bets $20, CO calls
River($85) 4♠
Hero -
As I understand it, overbets usually aren’t made on these types of runouts because this card, for example, completes a potential flush that my opponent could have. But by this logic, he should have very few flushes, since he would likely have bet most of his flush draws on the flop. Meanwhile, this card has maximum fold equity against his hands like Qx and even Kx. So, with an overbet, I can push those out, right?
8 Replies
Overall this seems like an unnecessary bluff. I think we'd have had more of a chance to win if we'd 3B pre, but that's pretty aggro. I think we're fine just check-folding flop or turn. We don't need to fight for every pot, at least not from OOP without much equity.
If we want to run a low frequency bluff, I think we should bet larger on the turn, to rep a hand like ATo or T9, that makes a straight and wants to build the pot, and protect against the flush draws. We have a 9, so we block some of our opponent's T9 combos that might check flop and call our turn bet.
If we bet turn, we need to barrel the river, but I don't think we need to bet huge to get V to fold worse than 2P. With less than $100 in the pot, I might bet pot, and not worry about getting called, because it'll help our image and get us paid when we take this line with value.
You’re making pretty big assumptions based on no past history (at least none listed in the OP) and a single action of checking a flop he should bet.
This is very bad idea. For all you know, V checks range OOP even though he shouldn’t. And that makes his range uncapped vs capped.
So, you’re playing against an admitted unknown, making a huge assumption about his range, and now overbetting is a spot you shouldn’t.
This is a huge leak with low stakes players. Always wanting to make significant deviations with little or no info.
dunno why u think u cant or shouldnt overbet the river. is not entirely preferred but i dont think he catches up enough on the river to dissuade this if you wanted to. in the sim he got a flush 8% and i think that might be higher than reality (thats him checking back like 35% of fds otf).
also i think your hand is going to do better as a one street bluff rather than 2. would rather check the turn and just bet the river assuming he has like 66 always. honestly i think people are going to under defend everywhere when they x back the flop though
i pretty sure the solving live poker misread the hand while talking down to you
No and if you're probing 9d8d here he should check flop a lot. Not saying it's bad, just far from balanced.
River seems very good for you and you can definitely overbet a lot of straights/flushes and smaller with 2p/Kx. Better players will fold enough to make bluffing +EV and fish arrive so wide it's winning vs them as well
His range definitely isnt capped because Vs regularly check their draws and the flush draw got there. I wouldve bet 30 OTT and bombed a blank river for like $150, but with 4s its not as clear. I think you can just bet like $75 and get just as many folds as $150 on 4s
What are you trying to fold out? As a general rule I would not try to overbet without any good blockers. But if you're trying to fold out Qx, Jx, then maybe going 60 or so makes sense.
I don't like the turn stab. We don't really have any meaningful equity. If the steaight gets there, so does a 1 liner to Ax for broadway. On the other hand, he will check turn with hands that are going to fold to a bet on the river a lot, with under pairs, 6x, etc, so this is a hand that makes more sense to check fold turn, but bluff river if he checks back turn.
I would rather bet turn with Ax, Tx, spades, or at least 1 spade blocker.
I wouldn't bluff the turn, because it is too wet a board. As played, I like a bluff on the river, but overbetting seems like fancy play syndrome, and is not good at low stakes.
You can bluff bet here and expect not to be raised by much except check backed nut draws.
