Should I call this river jam?

You can probably fold the turn. If he has JhTh, God bless.

If the game is raked, never open to 10. 11 or 12 help you beat the rake a little better because you get pot sizes of like $38, with a $3 rake rather than $32.

You’d expect him to just call flop with 8x and yet you block the nfd. His bluffs would be JhTh and Jh9h, maybe JcTc. You’d think he check these bluff combos on turn sometimes, so don’t mind a turn fold, unless you had reads. Some will overvalue/protect TP v a range bet so he can still have some Qx, which is more reason to fold turn obv.

Yeah, this is probably the worst turn in the deck given his flop raising range and the fact that I have the A♥, blocking the nut flushes with which he might decide to raise the flop.

Interesting point about the raise size used and the rake. In this game, the potsize is rounded down to the nearest ten, and then the rake (10% up to $10) is taken. So the rake is the same in a $30 and a $39 pot ($3). So at least in that regard there is not a huge difference in raising to $10, $11, $12 etc and in fact an increased chance of higher rake if more than $10 is used as pots often go multiway. For example, a $10 open 5-way pot will be $53 and raked at $5, whereas a $12 open 5-way pot will be $63 and raked at $6. The worst open size to use is probably $9, as this often creates pots of $21 and $30 (one caller and two callers respectively) and in both those cases if the pot was $2/$1 smaller then the rake would be $1 less.

I get what you're saying that having $3 removed from a $38 pot is less proportionally than it is from a $32 pot, but there are other factors to consider too, like using a larger opening size (at least in theory) means that we can't open as many hands, etc.

I think he would raise 8x some of the time on the flop too. Note that J♣T♣ makes a flush on the river, and I agree that one of the issues here is that he appears to have very few bluffs other than hearts hands (which are meant to give up on the river anyway although many players do use them to bluff with too).

Folding did indeed cross my mind on the turn. I was sure it was a plus EV call as far as a solver is concerned, but of course they are finding a lot more bluffs here than a human would. I had no reads on this guy as he was a new player to the game. The only thing that stood out as any kind of read in this hand was that he smiled as he put in the river bet.

Yes agreed that some players will raise Qx on the flop; it's for that reason that I really didn't like this turn.

This is where you defer to Bayesian Priors, and our priors are that the vast majority of low stakes players don't play this line as a bluff. You gotta find a fold somewhere here.

For sure, agreed.

Fold turn

What's the weakest hand with which you call the turn?

yeah idk theory wise can see an argument for folding w Ah but in practice i dont really expect him to raise the flop w Qx or to jam the river w 8x. weird hand, i dont have a strong river preference tbh so would likely call but dont think it matters much ev wise. id probably pure x flop w ur hand 3 ways w the Ah

solver want to pure lead ur range ott at 50 and 100 bb stacks

Yeah maybe 8x is too thin to jam the river, but there are still quite a few hands they can get called by, right? Very hard to find sensible bluffs anyway, I guess only JT, J9, T9? And how many of them should be calling preflop? I guess the answer is not many in theory, but probably quite a few in practice at live low stakes. And I guess some missed flush draws too.

Yes in hindsight I could definitely have considered checking on the flop.

I'm really surprised the solver wants me to lead range on the turn after facing a flop raise. What can possibly be the reasoning/logic behind that?

check the flop OOP vs two players.

as played just fold the turn. he knows you could have a Q and doesn't care. hes not trying to outplay your aces because he doesnt know you have aces and even if he did its not like people think you will fold them.

Agreed, I could have certainly checked the flop.

Anyway, I ended up convincing myself somehow to call...

That you hadn't any history on the Villain seems particularly relevant after opening the spoiler. I agree with your conclusion about your call. Sometimes ranging opponents really is a guessing game.

For sure. I guess it goes to show that some players will just airball with nonsensical hands sometimes.