Pot size river bet - what to do?
$1/3 at Aria in Las Vegas
Hero - tight image, been showing up with big hands
Villain - savvy asian guy
Effective stacks: $600
V raise to $12 in UTG+1
Two calls, so $40 in pot
I have AdJd in CO and raise to $40
V calls, others fold
Pot $103
Flop: 6hThJh
V checks, I bet $75
V calls
Pot: $250
Turn: Tc
V checks, I check
River: 7s
V bets pot = $250
What to do?
FYI: I tank, fold
9 Replies
I don't see the need to blast the flop for a 3/4 psb. If I'm going to bet, it would be for 1/4 psb with my entire range.
I usually would do similar, maybe half pot. But it's a monochrome flop. Don't you want to deny V flush draw odds?
I appreciate the feedback on that flop bet. I'm more wondering about how to respond to that river pot size bet when I have top pair, top kicker.
I mean how often is he bluffing there? I figure if it's more than 33% of the time, I should be calling. But I'm not sure if he's bluffing that often.
But given my turn check, that might have included a bluff?
I xb flop. If you do want to blast this flop with anything, I'm not the solver guy but I would use some made flushes and A♥x first and TPTK + overpairs without a ♥ dead last, this seems about the worst hand to bomb the flop with.
Once I'm here, I guess I call river. I never get here like this though.
Raise more pre. It's surprising that the people in the middle folded. You want to take it down with this hand, especially with the rake. $60 min. Especially as you are deep.
I agree you want to bet the flop small or check. I like a small bet. Yes you are giving ok odds to hands like AQ, AK with a heart. But you don't want to pile money in here. You are getting some value from them and making life tough for 88 or 99 with a H.
The turn is pretty good for you, as it's now quite hard for him to have JT, JJ or TT and it isn't a heart. If you had an overpair it would be an OK card too. If he did flop a flush, you now have some outs and he probably isn't going to be crazy about playing for stacks, as you could have AhKh, JJ, JT etc. Would he call your big flop bet with something like 88h? KJs (no heart obv)? I could kind of go either way here, because he called that big flop bet. But I think you can bet to get value from hands like AK, AQ, KQ containing hearts. And for some protection. I would not go 3/4 again though. Maybe a bit below 1/2.
River is player dependent but against this guy it sounds like a call. While I'm not the most blocker driven person, it is quite nice to block JJ, JT and to have no hearts in your hand, as his logical bluffs would be AK, AQ and KQ with a heart. I guess you could say, this also means he could have flushes, but AhKh might 4! Maybe AhQh would occasionally do so, as you raised small and there was dead money. He can't have AhJh or AhTh.
More pre, less flop or consider checking. River is wtver probably close to ev neutral, preflop and flop sizing leaks are more important
making people fold is overrated
check back the flop or bet tiny. if he gets there he gets there. that is, if you have the best hand to begin with.
dont try to win every pot.
Very bad 3b size. In position 3x minimum without the cold callers. With one cold caller you actually want to raise even more, like 5x, so with 2 cold callers 5.5x or 6x even, but I wouldn't go less than 5x with 2 cold callers.
On a monotone flop you size down, not up.
River it's close. "Savy Asian guy" is really not enough to know if we should call here. Flip a coin maybe. But I know we have invested more than we wanted in this pot since the flop. A pot sized tiver het would be easier to call if we bet 25% pot. Or we could have started with a check as well.
Against an EP raise (at least one that isn't too wide) my default is to actually nitty fold AJs. However, for this relatively small price, with large stacks, with two callers and position, and a hand that plays fine multiway, I think I'd lean to a call. If 3betting, I think our sizing is far too small if we're really looking to end the hand now (which is a decent result, imo).
I'd either bet small or check behind on this flop (and leaning towards the latter against anyone who can be aggro). Not looking to build a huge pot with this hand nor get blown off our hand.
I'm fine with the turn.
With all the draws busting, our hand looking like A high, and this guy being savvy, we might have to lean to a river call.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Grunch:
Raise bigger pre. Make it $60 or $70. You're not folding out enough opponents or getting enough value with your range when you 3B to $40 over $12. V can continue pretty wide for that sizing.
Your flop c-bet is too large for a 3B pot and a monotone board. I'd bet less than 1/3 pot, probably around $20-$25. V isn't likely to raise his strong hands when we c-bet 3/4 pot. He's folding out all his air, so he's left with strong hands and good draws.
The turn is basically a brick, unless he somehow shows up with a lot of Tx, which seems unlikely. I wouldn't check back. I'd just continue to bet, but again, I'd just bet small, to give him another chance to raise off with his strong hands.
Once we check back the turn, we're opening the door for him to bet the river, both for value and as a bluff, and we're just guessing what to do. Not only do we lose to Tx and flopped flushes, but the 7 on the river also brings in 98.
When V bets pot, I'd generally just fold. If he was bluffing, he wouldn't need to go full pot to fold out all our unpaired over cards and weak 1P combos. Most low stakes recs are going to bet around half-pot here, if they're bluffing or have weak value.