Commerce 40 - I Miss

OK. Think it's hard to have enough bluffs if you're not betting this.

I think if you bet the turn you pretty much have to bet any river.

The river pair makes it more likely they call with ace high here. You have to know your customer

The pause probably doesn't give you away because they'll assume you're some classic weak-is-strong donk pretending to be concerned about the river that gave them trips, or at least was a good card for your value range.

You're right that people are going to call down more on this river, but I don't think the correct conclusion is we should have zero or close to zero bluffs.

I’d give up on an Ax river but otherwise I think this has to be right.