Do you stick to any rule when it comes to Overbet Sizing?
I feel comfortable OB flop and turn because I just stick to 150%, but the river is complicated because you should in theory make massive overbets sometimes.
My issue with that is actually pulling the trigger with bluffs in the same spot. I know balance is not that important on low stakes but I want to have a strategy that at least is not that evident. And feel I could actually be bluffing and value betting on the same spot.
Look at this hand, I should in theory shove 92bbs on a 16bb pot OOP with some nut flushes and some nut blockers (AKo here is 1/3 but AQo would have been a shove). That would be almost a x6.
Random villain could be a calling station or a nit. It feels kind of like a shot in the dark with both value and bluffs when you don't have any read.
Do you think a move like that would be advisable against randoms in microstakes as a routine?
I was thinking in using some kind of boundary around SRPs:
Something like sticking to x1.5 max when SRP above 2.5 (so it doesn't feel as painful to bet/fold).
And using something like x2.5 as an upper limit when that would be an allin on SRPs 2.5 or lower and deciding to overbet, instead of giving great odds on villain check raise bluffs by overbetting 1.5 on a srp of 2 or something.
Maybe this could be a good start as I get more comfortable with overbets and hopefully climb up stakes?
I guess it should capture most of the important OB spots EV playing 100bbs deep and maybe reduce variance / possible tilt?
Thanks!
4 Replies
This seems to be a post about comfortability. Just recognize your value hands in the same spot first and then incorporate the appropriate amount of bluffs. After doing it a few times the fear will subside.
Versus people that are unknown, they are more likely to recreational players, which means they are going to have inelastic ranges so you can bet smaller with the nut flush blocker and jam with the nut flush. You probably have been doing this correctly intuitively. Once you've identified a solid reg, then you'll want to balance properly.
I think it boils down to blocking/unblocking when it comes to over-bet bluffing and the value/nutted portion of your range you can just over-bet pile when you think villains at the top of their range (with worse) and can’t fold. Works best against sticky players (which seems to be a commonality at lower stakes, so will defo work a good amount as an exploit to maximise EV). Don’t overthink pulling the trigger, just go balls deep and shoot your shot. Population at low stakes aren’t hitting their MDF vs over-bet shoves, people aren’t as studied in these types of scenarios compared to the more “common” street betting occurrences. So exploit away!
Try to think of your valuebets and bluffs as a single entity, instead of separate ones.
As long as you have roughly the right ratio of nut flushes/nut blockers, you can capture the entire pot when you jam. This is because you make his entire range 0EV - and since poker is a 0 sum game, the rest of the pot goes to you.
Thanks for the responses guys!
