Determining the ICM value of a chip stack.
So in a sit and go, 10 players all equal skill level buy in for $10 (no rake). Payouts are $50, $30, $20
So starting with 1000 chips, we can definitively say that the value of 1000 chips with 10 people left is $10.
We can also say that the value of 10000 chips (with 1 person left) is $50.
Now if one person is knocked out, and another person doubles up to 2000. We know that the 2000 chip stack is not worth double the $ value. Its valued at somewhere between a bit higher than $10, and a bit lower than $20.
If we theoretically assume everyone is equal skill level at this point, what is the best method to determine the value of the 2000 chip stack at this point?
Also, since everyone's $ value of their 1000 chip stack goes up since one person is knocked out, doesn't this further justify never taking a 50/50 flip early in a tournament?
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Correcting my first sentence above - it's actually probably worth less now because you probably have less than the average stack. So when you enter a tournament late after a bunch of folks are eliminated you're likely overpaying for your chips.
Respectfully, I’m fairly certain the statement above is incorrect.
For one, you will FOR SURE have less than the average stack. But ICM doesn’t weigh this linearly.
There are people who purposely max late reg and lollly gag in lines and try to get seated slowly at the WSOP so that by the time they sit down they are so close to the money that they might not even need to play a hand.
This is chicken **** behavior in my opinion but it is out there.
Consider this extreme example — registration is closing on a 100 person MTT. Only 13 players remain and 12 cash. Regardless of the payouts, if you know you are the only player that’s going to jump in at the last minute, you are printing money from an ICM perspective. Remember it doesn’t take into account blinds etc so ICM doesn’t know if you will have 1 blind and all in right away or 15 blinds with some playability. All it knows are the payouts and that you have roughly 1/8 of the average stack.
The $ ICM value of a starting stack goes up as players are eliminated. Oftentimes if you max late reg the $ value of your starting stack will be worth enough extra that it is worth how much you actually pay to buy in, rather than what you pay minus rake, which is what a starting stack is worth at the start of the tournament. So in terms of the dollar value of your stack you are practically getting in rake free if you max late reg.
That being said the early levels when all the worst players are still around is when a good player should have the largest edge, so in my estimation a good player is still better off registering earlier.
If I ever played like a really tough $50k where any edge anyone has is minimal, then I would definitely max late reg though.
Yea its funny to see a 10 year thread and see how far we have come with understanding ICM and poker generally. Turns out ICM applies to MTTs too, and way sooner than we thought back then.
Yea its funny to see a 10 year thread and see how far we have come with understanding ICM and poker generally. Turns out ICM applies to MTTs too, and way sooner than we thought back then.
Hahaha, I didn't notice that someone had bumped an old thread. I felt like I was in the twilight zone for a minute.
