Nitty by Nature 8: Confirmed Busto TR (6/14-6/22)
Dog, you must be high. Don't you have a calendar? It's FEBRUARY. Surely you aren't posting a WSOP trip report this early?
Yes I am, but hear me out. I think it will make some sense.
PROLOGUE
It's late December, 2025. I've had a rough year at the tables, driven primarily by a staggering inability to HOLD in key spots. You're always going to take some bad beats in poker, but the runbad has reached spooky levels. From January to December, this year of poker has been an endless poo sandwich. I'm beginning to feel like my life is a Twilight Zone episode. The sadistic poker gods have devised a cookbook to serve man an all-you-can-eat buffet of misery. This must be a mistake. I thought I ordered the Earl's rungood club? Instead, I'm getting toasted in a different way.
Despite the steady diet of suffering, I'm still clinging to the hopes of a late reversal. We're down to 26/137 in a $200 Venetian bounty tournament. 17 spots will be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000. I've been playing my A game, mixing things up and usually landing on the right decision. I'm sitting on a healthy 100k (4x starting) when I'm dealt the always gorgeous AA in the SB. CO opens to 6k. I pop it to 17k. BB folds. CO tank calls. Flop comes 8c6c5s. Not the best, but we're still likely to be ahead. I lead for 20k. CO rips for a covering stack. I call and am shown 99. I'm a 75% favorite to double up to 8x starting, which will give me a great platform to chase the final table payouts. Surely this is the moment where my luck changes.
6 on the turn. 7 on the river.
Bling. Blang. Blaow.
"He was just a kid with a dream."
I toss my bounty chip into the middle and swiftly exit the poker room.
As I begin the medium walk from Palazzo back to Harrah's, I pass the Wizard of Oz display in the Palazzo fountains. This seems appropriate. Pink Floyd could be the soundtrack for this moment, except I can't even say I'm comfortably numb. I'm just numb, in a state of disbelief.
In the grand scheme of poker beats, losing AA vs. 99 for a pot worth maybe $1k in equity is barely notable. It might only register 0.001 Matt Afflecks on the pain scale. However, it's a bitter pill to swallow on the heels of a year filled with similar moments.
You'll understand if I breathed a sigh of relief on New Year's Eve when the ball finally dropped and I could finally flip the page on this cursed year. Goodbye 2025. I'd like to say it was fun, but it wasn't really. I don't know exactly what 2026 holds. I just know it can't be much worse in terms of runouts and poker variance.
NEW YEAR, NEW ME
I'm not a high roller and my living expenses have increased considerably in the last couple years, so the double whammy of my extended runbad is that it cramps my already limited ability to make poker trips and fire tournaments. I can't afford to be as profligate as I could in previous years. I still have confidence at the table, but I can't stomach much downside exposure. On the other hand, summer poker has become an annual highlight since I first started playing live again in 2018. The prospect of skipping it is almost inconceivable. I'd run through a brick wall to make it back to Vegas, or at least a wall of bricked flops.
In the past few years, I've booked and re-booked my summer trips multiple times, often changing my mind and switching my dates around up until the last minute. I decided to do things differently for 2026. I booked my summer trip back in December. Rather than waiting on the schedule and building a trip around specific events, I just picked the dates and rates that were most favorable. I booked 6/14-6/22, for a total of eight nights. The rate was friendly and this is a good time for me to travel, as I have no work conflicts.
I intend to go out to Vegas in June and cobble together some type of schedule. My summer TRs have become very same-y the last few years, but this one may have a decidedly different flavor. It may be a low roller's guide to summer tournament poker, a window into blasting buy-ins on a tight budget. It may entail a steady diet of WSOP daily deepstacks and other options in the thrifty price range, a return to my 2018 roots when $365 was the biggest buy-in I played all year. In the subsequent years I moved up stakes and found several cashes at the $1k+ level. I sat with some of the best MTT players on the planet, but I'm not too proud to drop back down and battle the rabble.
After taking eight Vegas trips in 2024 and five in 2025, my expectation was that this June trip might be my sole foray into the desert for 2026. However, that doesn't mean I won't be playing any poker in the meantime. My plan was to stay sharp through semi-regular trips to the local room and some cheap regional events.
My first scheduled tune-up was to come in a $125 evening bounty event in the local room earlier in February. As the 7PM start time approached, I hemmed and hawed. 'Should I drive out there tonight? Do I really feel like playing? Should I wait until next weekend?' Nah, screw it. This is when you planned to play, so just play. I got in my car and made the short drive.
Excellent choice. I ran very hot in the tournament. My local room has a passionate population of players, but it's objectively softer than a typical Vegas field. You see more goofy play and baffling errors. While I was getting dealt a steady diet of monster hands, other people were dumping and making big mistakes. Soon the 33 entry field was down to the 5 paid spots. From there I eventually got down to the HU, where I began with approximately a 1-to-4 chip deficit. After a 30 minute back-and-forth, we got the chips in 99 vs. AQ. If I could win this flip, I'd take the chip lead. I did not win the flip. I took second place for $420 in cash and $150 in bounties (3x$50), for a net profit of $445.
It wasn't a win, but it felt like one. 2nd place was a great outcome and the extended HU session was actually the most HU poker I've ever gotten to play live. All of my Vegas tournament "wins" have come in the form of chops. Neither my opponent nor myself mentioned a chop this time around. We played for all the marbles. Although I did not win all the marbles, 445 is still a lot of marbles.
As it turns out, I have a three day weekend coming up. The price for Vegas flights and a couple nights in a hotel is...almost exactly $445. A smarter man than myself might pocket this $445 and roll it into the summer poker budget, but momma didn't raise no folder. If you think about it, even the nittiest person in the poker room must have some gamble in them or they wouldn't be playing at all. I hope the poker gods will honor my mild recklessness with a serving of favorable variance.
So there you have it. That's the reason why I'm posting a WSOP TR in February. I'm heading out to Vegas next weekend for a "free" trip to get in some extra reps against the regs. The results of this trip will ultimately influence my summer plans. With that being the case, I thought I'd kickstart the summer TR with a few days of bonus content.
I'll be heading out to the desert early-ish on 2/28. I will probably be returning late-ish on 3/2, though there's some possibility to extend if I sun run.
For better or worse, the party starts soon. This is your invitation.
When you and I met up for a 30 minute chat at the 2025 WSOP, I was waiting for you and saw you come down the escalator from the area of the Horseshoe where Daily Deepstack tourneys are held. It was somewhat late at night.
We had a very enjoyable chat that made me think you represented the nuts and bolts of poker. You seemed very much a part of the scene. Not a loud part of the scene like the TV stars of the game who pander to the cameras. A quiet part of the scene, hyper focused on your personal poker journey away from the cameras and fanfare. A poker player at his core. All about the game. Not about the fame.
After a half hour you said you were playing in another tourney that was about to start, and we said our goodbyes. I watched you head back up the escalator to your tournament, and a thought went through my brain: "There goes a poker truth seeker."
I just got that same vibe reading your intro to this thread.
I hope your results are better in 2026 than they were in 2025. I look forward to reading all about it.
Ima try to get out in March for the Circuit event for a tune-up.
Are you doing mostly tournaments or cash?
For a budget WSOP, be sure to check put the Milestone satellites. They're all or nothing wrt payouts - either get zip or about 9x your entry. It's a welcome change from a day and a half playing a $1500 to win 1300 bucks. A $500 Milestone pays over $4500 if you're able to cash, and they only take about half a day. If you arrive when the cheapo tournaments start, they have entries as low as 70-ish bucks. Some of them pay out in cash and some in bracelet event entries, so be sure to check that.
BTW, There's a CET 10x multiplier starting on 3/5 in Laughlin, if that sort of thing appeals.
When you and I met up for a 30 minute chat at the 2025 WSOP, I was waiting for you and saw you come down the escalator from the area of the Horseshoe where Daily Deepstack tourneys are held. It was somewhat late at night. We had a very enjoyable chat that made me think you represented the nuts and bolts of poker. You seemed very much a part of the scene. Not a loud part of the
I'll take it. One thing you notice following/playing poker for a long time is that there are honeymooners and there are lifers. Some people play for a few years and then just sort of vanish into the ether. Maybe they go bust, get burnt out, or just fall out love with the game. Any old WSOP broadcast is full of these random characters who might have been "notables" for a few years before disappearing from the scene. There's nothing wrong with stepping away and deciding to spend time on other things. I don't judge anyone for making that choice. Personally, I seem to be a lifer. I suspect I'll be out there playing stuff as long as I can. I don't have any notoriety or importance in the scene, but I enjoy playing for the sake of playing. The challenge, excitement, and unpredictability keep me coming back. I plan to stick around for a while.
Ima try to get out in March for the Circuit event for a tune-up.Are you doing mostly tournaments or cash?For a budget WSOP, be sure to check put the Milestone satellites. They're all or nothing wrt payouts - either get zip or about 9x your entry. It's a welcome change from a day and a half playing a $1500 to win 1300 bucks. A $500 Milestone pays over $4500 if you're able to cas
I expect this to be mostly a tournament trip, with maybe one evening slot open for cash.
I like to fire satellites here and there. There will be some interesting ones running next weekend and it's a definite possibility for the summer as well. Tentatively looking at the $1500 Milly Maker, $1500 2-7 TD, and $500 Salute as my target WSOP events this year. Playing the 10PM satellites to try to scrape some of those buy-ins is a possibility.
Personally, I seem to be a lifer. I suspect I'll be out there playing stuff as long as I can. I don't have any notoriety or importance in the scene, but I enjoy playing for the sake of playing. The challenge, excitement, and unpredictability keep me coming back. I plan to stick around for a while.
This, and same for me. I can't imagine ever being tired of poker and just not be interested in playing anymore. I guess the only thing that could change that is if I actually got a family and other responsibilities, but with each passing second that seems unlikely.
Good luck in Vegas! Only tournaments, or some Cash Games as well?
I'm in. Enjoying your posting, both from a storytelling and poker standpoints.
This, and same for me. I can't imagine ever being tired of poker and just not be interested in playing anymore. I guess the only thing that could change that is if I actually got a family and other responsibilities, but with each passing second that seems unlikely.
Good luck in Vegas! Only tournaments, or some Cash Games as well?
Looking to play 3-4 tournaments, but cash games are a definite possibility in open windows.
Enjoy your tournament perspective as well. I’ll likely overlap most of your trip. Will be following.
You’re an excellent writer, and a FANTASTIC poker communicator.
Best of luck, and can’t wait to follow along!!
subbed. and will see you IRL in June
I expect this to be mostly a tournament trip, with maybe one evening slot open for cash. I like to fire satellites here and there. There will be some interesting ones running next weekend and it's a definite possibility for the summer as well. Tentatively looking at the $1500 Milly Maker, $1500 2-7 TD, and $500 Salute as my target WSOP events this year. Playing the 10PM satelli
The Milestone "satellites" aren't really satellites for the ones that pay cash, because you can use the cash for anything, including hookers and blow. The Orleans has something similar they call "Bankroll Builders". I think they might pay 10x the entry, but only 1 of 11 players wins. I won one last year that paid $1000 for a hundred-ish entry.
I'm in for the pre WSOP shenanigans and hope to be in LV in June as well.
In for the run good!
If you think about it, even the nittiest person in the poker room must have some gamble in them or they wouldn't be playing at all.
this nit agrees. good luck!
It's always nice when you can say, "I'm going to Vegas tomorrow." I'm flying out early-ish tomorrow. I'll be in town for at least two nights, which will really be more like three full days (Saturday/Sunday/Monday). While there is some possibility to extend if the results are great, I'm operating under the assumption that it will be a short visit.
MINI TRIP OVERVIEW
I'm primarily a tournament player. Although I like to dabble in cash, 95% of the poker I play is MTTs. I love the unpredictability, ever-shifting dynamics, and flirtations with big payouts. My general approach to building a schedule is to start small and then roll the found money into bigger tournaments if the early results are positive. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't. With that in mind, I'll start this weekend by playing small stuff at the Orleans. If I do well there, I'll roll some of that money into a Venetian or Wynn tournament. This protects the downside while still offering pathways to play tougher events for bigger $$$.
There's no shortage of bigger events to choose from in this window. Venetian will be running a multi-flight $800 across the next few days. Wynn Millions has intriguing options in a mid-high price range. In the super premium space, the PokerGO Cup will be starting at Aria. Don't expect to see me in the studio, but there are options at higher price levels if the minor leagues yield a bink.
GOALS
I'd love to cash something and chase a big score, but this trip is primarily about logging hours and getting MTT reps to stay in reasonable poker shape. I'm hoping to play 3-4 events. On such a small sample size, I'm probably just a coin flip to see any return on my entry fees. I'd like to win that flip, but I'll try to judge the trip based on inputs rather than outputs. Did I play my A game or at least my B+ game? If I can answer yes then I'll try consider the trip a success (easier said than done sometimes).
If I still have money in my wallet at the end of this trip, those funds will be rolled into the summer budget.
While I can't promise lavish meals or opulent scenery, I may deliver some mediocre food pics. I'm a food nit who tries to subsist in Vegas on cheap fare like Chipotle, In-N-Out, and Earl. I cannot offer any advice on Michelin star meals. However, I can guide you to the cheapest egg and bacon breakfast sandwich in the Venetian food court. Some would say I am Meal Theory Optimal.
The lodgings will also be cheap. I'll spend a night with Boyd Gaming at the Orleans before popping over to Harrah's. If you're going to punt buy-ins with leaky poker play, you can at least save money on your bed. The suite life will have to wait until I hit it big and can finally afford a room in the Rio. I hear it's all suites.
Expect me to throw down a sports bet or two. I follow the NBA closely and bet regularly on DK. I'll try to pick some winners while I'm in the gambling capitol.
Hopefully it will be a fun few days.
When the dust settles, I'll assess the damage and discuss next steps.
It's always nice when you can say, "I'm going to Vegas tomorrow." I'm flying out early-ish tomorrow. I'll be in town for at least two nights, which will really be more like three full days (Saturday/Sunday/Monday). While there is some possibility to extend if the results are great, I'm operating under the assumption that it will be a short visit.
I'm having/sending positive thoughts and looking forward to a longer visit. Play well/run well.
I’m here for it!!
It's always nice when you can say, "I'm going to Vegas tomorrow." I'm flying out early-ish tomorrow. I'll be in town for at least two nights, which will really be more like three full days (Saturday/Sunday/Monday). While there is some possibility to extend if the results are great, I'm operating under the assumption that it will be a short visit. MINI TRIP OVERVIEWI'm primarily
Holy crap, you sound like my brother from a different mother. My situation is nearly identical to yours, except I've sworn off sports bets. I might throw a hundo into the March Madness futures, but mostly just to keep me rooting for Arizona. I've played exactly one low stakes tournament since the WSOP. There's no poker close to where I live. Knocking the rust off in June is usually a frustrating and expensive experience.
The Sunday tourney at Orleans has deep stacks and a hefty turnout usually. I had planned to play in the Circuit event, but the stock market has been beating me like a redheaded stepchild, so I'll have to give that a pass.
MINI TRIP DAY ONE (2/28/26)
My flight landed at about 1PM. I made it to the Orleans around 1:45 and immediately jumped into the 11:10 $150 Monster Stack in level 6. In general, I'm not super fond of late regging tournaments, but it was either come in late or wait several hours for the next tournament. I didn't fly out here to not play poker, so we fire right away.
The decision worked out relatively well. After dipping down to 20k from 30k starting, my patience was eventually rewarded with some good spots. I found myself on 90k chips as we neared the end of late reg. I took a picture of the clock at one point during a break, but the info is incomplete. The tournament closed with 199 entries and approximately $5k set aside for first place.
I played some hands of consequence to build my stack, but they're not too interesting to rehash because they were mostly standard pre-flop situations. I won AA > 44 when a shortie jammed that in front of me. I won JJ > 77 in BTN vs. SB vs. BB pot that went open (BTN), 3-bet (me), 4-bet rip (BB), fold (BTN), and call (me). I isolated with 44 from the SB against an 8 BB shove from the CO and won the flip against his A8 after the BB folded. My coolest play of the night was turning a zero equity hand (73o?) into a polarized pre-flop 3-bet from the BB against an aggroish player who had been targeting my blind often from MP. He folded and I won a chunky pot with a bottom 5% hand as we approached the bubble. That one felt good.
We get down to the stone bubble with 25 players remaining and 24 spots paid. A min-cash is worth $322. The final table spots pay approximately $1k-5k. I have not been playing especially tight, but I also haven't been hitting much. I'm hovering around 90k, the smallest stack at my table, but probably not the smallest in the room. Hand-for-hand play begins. Nobody is busting. The blinds go through me. I'm on exactly 72k at 3k/6k blinds when the following pivotal spot occurs.
It folds to me in EP (UTG+1? UTG+2?) with AKo. I have exactly 12BB on the stone bubble. I am the shortest stack at the table, but can likely fold my way to a min-cash.
It seems to me that we have three options here:
1. Fold to preserve chips and hope somebody busts.
2. 2x to see a flop and reevaluate if we face resistance. We have some wiggle room to get away from bad flops.
3. Rip 12BB with AKo and risk elimination.
I sincerely can't tell you what the official ICM-approved decision is here, but I can tell you what I did.
Spoiler
I jammed the 12BB. A big stack called from the blinds with Tc9c. There was a 9 on the flop. I did not improve, and went out on the stone bubble.
Was this the wrong decision? I'm open to feedback. My thought process in the moment was that I don't care about the min-cash in a $150 tournament. I am not playing with the goal of a $322 cash. I am playing to win, and ripping AK on 12BB is probably the most purely +chipEV play. AK is super strong, but also wants to see all 5 cards. You're only a huge dog against AA and you can get full value from worse. Sometimes you are going to get busted, but it sets you up the best to make a run at the FT.
Maybe on the stone bubble, electing to 2x and bail on ugly boards would have been the smarter play.
Whatever the case, I'm at peace with the decision. If this were a major event with a huge min-cash where the money meant a lot to me, I might have taken a different route.
In this situation, I was not too concerned about the $322 pay jump from 25th to 24th.
I was not too upset about the outcome. My internal devastation meter was maybe a 5/100.
I've had bubbles that felt far worse. In 2023, I lost KK < QQ aipf in the $1k WSOP Super Turbo Bounty near the money to a river queen. That hurt.
In 2019, I lost 44 < A9 aipf in a $400 daily deepstack near the bubble on a gross set and wheel runout like J43...2...5. That hurt.
This one didn't hurt too much tonight. It was just an, 'Oh.' Someone had to be the bubble tonight and unfortunately it was me.
After the tournament, I hit Sbarro in Orleans for a couple slices. The Horseshoe doesn't have a monopoly on B- tier pizza.
I had thoughts of jumping into the $150 Orleans 6PM bounty event after dinner, but the tourney was already in level 6 by the time I finished eating. I opted to "save a bet" and roll that money into the rest of the trip budget, shutting down the poker activities today after about 6 hours grinding the morning event. Shotgun thoughts on this morning's Orleans $150: Relatively soft field. Notably softer than a $200 Wynn daily. Multiple players at my table had the tendency to kill their action with weird, huge pre-flop sizings (4x-5x sometimes). There was not as much fighting for marginal pots or bluffing as I anticipated. Action skewed ABC and passive. However, play definitely improved as we got closer to the payout spots. Still, I'd say there's value in these tournaments. The fields seem very beatable. You get a lot of play for your $150, though they leave the late reg open VERY late. If so inclined, you can jump in with 10BB at 1.5k/3k after the dinner break. From there you're not terribly far from the bubble.
The plan for tomorrow is to fire the 11AM $300 at the Orleans. It typically gets between 250-300 entries with some chunky payouts at the final table. Ideally, I run deep and bink a result. It's a deep and slow event. If I bust very early for some reason, I may head over to Aria and fire the 3PM $360 satellite for the $3k PokerGO event. If I bust medium early, I will go to Wynn and fire the 5PM $200 satellite for the upcoming $1100. If I bust late, I may track down a cash game on the strip.
Nice run. Not quite nice enough, but still nice.
It's surprising to me that there seems to be so many series going. They're priced for my budget too, the WSOP is priced high enough to make me a touch uncomfortable.
Good luck tomorrow.
IMO, AK is an open there not a shove but I think shoving is better than folding
I would bet/call it pre flop I think. I could understand a bet/fold if the money was consequential but it isn’t here
Great run, tough beat.
I think I’d shove 12bb with AK too. I don’t think I’d open 2x, because I wouldn’t be doing it with the intention of folding to a 3bet shove.
Agree that the size of the tournament, and mincash, would affect my decision.
I had a similar situation last summer, when I shoved a similar stack with AQo on the bubble, and lost to ATo, to bubble out on what was like my 11th or 12th straight tourney without a cash.
These things happen. We play to make the big money at the final table, not mincash. Getting it in on a 60/40 with AK is the best way to advance that goal.
You are going into these other tourneys knowing you are on your A game -- that is huge!
