Which shot do you give?

Up in the race so much and with no spare checkers in the outfield, it looks like White would be very happy to get off that anchor with a hit. So I'd play 20/16 with either 5/4 or 13/12. Maybe 5/4 because 63 and 54 play so badly for White if he can't hit with them.

But wouldn't be 5/1 13/12 less risky when White has a good board?

You cannot play too safe when you're behind in the race.
And even if White has a good board, you still have an advanced anchor so you won't get blitzed or primed.
Putting a checker behind White's anchor on the ace point doesn't seem very appealing.