Why gammons dont matter in this position?
So the score is 4-2 for white in 5 point match and this is a Crawford game. Red is on move with 54 roll. So the top two plays are considered pretty much equal but I thought the hitting play would be much better as we could fish for more checkers. And the hitting play also gives 22% gammons compared to second play which gives just 12% of gammons. But the wins in general are almost equal - around 93% for both plays. So I thought we would rather come to the score 4-4 than 4-3 but it seems it doesnt matter here. Why?
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Trailing 4-3 in a five point match, you will immediately double at first opportunity making that game equivalent to a 4-4 match score. The only advantage that the player leading 4-3 has is the he has a “free drop”, and can drop the trailer’s double if the game starts unfavorably. (For example, trailing player wins opening roll with 31, leader rolls 21). That is not really that big of an advantage, so gammon in this position doesn’t matter much. After a normal win or a gammon the next game will be for the match.
