Double or not?

You're a favorite and it's your last chance to use the cube in any meaningful way, so why wouldn't you double?

It's a last roll position, either you win or you loose and you are better than 50% so double take

Well I thought that in this situation I would need to be a bigger favorite to win the game. Here I am around 60%. So I didn't double just for that reason, what was a huge blunder. My understanding of the cube is still not ideal

If I would be a 60% favorite in the beginning of this game, that definitely wouldn't be a double. But here it is. It is a very "gambly" situation - either I hit and I win, or I miss and very likely I lose.

So, checking this situation in XG, I noticed, the doubling window is really huge (around 800 milipoints) - and it is a huge blunder either not to double or to pass a double... Is someone willing to explain on what factors depends the size of the doubling window?

So any time you are a favorite in last roll position you double, no matter the score?

Not any time, since at some match scores, a doubled gammon against you could be devastating (e.g. losing the match).

Ignoring gammons, you need to look at how much the extra point is you're putting at stake is worth to both players in terms of match winning chances. And then compare the odds you are getting to your game winning chances.

This position might blow your mind:

Thanks, this really made me think!