Strange Move

I donÂ’t know on this one. It does seem strange and IÂ’m pretty sure I wouldnÂ’t have come up with the correct move. Maybe itÂ’s a pay now vs pay later scenario? If you leave the shot now, only three rolls hit. If you play safe with 24/13(2) you still have a good bit of work to do to get home safely, and you likely will have more hitting rolls if/when you do leave a shot. White has good timing so he probably keeps his board together long enough that any shots will be losing ones for blue.

The plays are very close according to an XG rollout. If Blue gets to hit the checker on the 16 point, that should help coming home safely, but also 24/12(2) is just pretty inflexible. For instance, White enters with a 5 and then Blue can't play numbers like 6-1 safely. The spare on the 6 after 24/18 24/6 helps a lot for giving Blue some future options. If you take the original position and move a Blue checker from the 3 point to the 6 point, then 24/12(2) becomes correct since you have that spare to make 24/12(2) a little less inflexible.