How Useful are All-In-Adj stats?
Hey my newly found friends,
My understanding of all-in-adj stats is that it accounts for showdown equity before the remaining cards are dealt, when it is an all-in situation. Meaning that if someone goes all-in for 100bb has an 80% chance of winning the hand, they will gain 80bb in their all-in-adj stats, regardless of who actually wins in the end (the true result will either be +100b or -100b).
This is to help account for luck over the course of the sample size. It seems imperfect, though, for example when two players go all-in after the river has already been dealt, and the losing player discovers the winner sucked-out because the river happened to give the opponent a two-pair. He got unlucky, but that isn't shown in the data.
Anyway, my question is... how useful are all-in-adj stats? Is my all-in-adj bb/100 strictly superior information to my actual bb/100?
Is there even much point to looking at my actual bb/100 besides trying to tell if I'm running hot or cold? I wouldn't think so, with my current perception of how these things work.
Thanks in advance,
~BAS
1 Reply
Your EV is actually 60bb in that situation.
80% of the time, you make 100bb of profit.
20% of the time, you lose 100bb.
EV = (80% * 100)-(20% * 100) = 80-20 = 60.
So on your graph, you'll either be 40bb above EV (when you win 100bb), or a horrific 160bb below (when you lose 100bb).
Assuming your software uses an orange EV line, like HEM does, it's a fairly good indicator of your theoretical winrate (better than actual winnings), particularly once you've played a decent volume. I tend to use EVbb/100
The answer would be different considering how much there is to win after V calls. You're risking 100 to win 100+ V's Call. I don't know why you even bothered calculating EV of a scenario without enough info to run the proper calculation.
