Simple odds question
If I have $150 stack. There is $150 in pot. And somebody puts me all in on the turn. I have Nut flush draw and assume my A pairing would win too. Should I fold or call?
As I see it, I’m getting 2-1, so need 33% equity. But I have 12 outs which is only 24% equity. So I think calling is -EV, right? So insta-fold?
Or am I missing something?
3 Replies
And to go a step further. What if I also have a pair. Like
Ad6d
On 6c9d2dQh
Now I have 2 more outs. So that’s 14 outs. 28%. Still less than 33%. Shouldn’t that still be a fold then?
Your equity would be ~12/46, so slightly more than 24%, but yes that is correct. Ideally you would input the range of the villain into an equity calculator like Equilab to get it more precise and also remember to take into account rake if the rake is non-negligible.
For your second question you are also correct under the assumption you have to hit the 6/A/diamond. I've put an example of Equilab below.
The math is there .. but then you let those thoughts that 'Ace high' might be good sometimes too.
But even with all that I think most Players lean towards folding in EV=0 spots. Make note of this 'savy' opponent who wanted to force you into a negative decision rather than price you into some value. GL
