Keep thinking about this hand...
BTN: 353.9 BB (VPIP: 16.44, PFR: 14.09, 3Bet Preflop: 6.19, Hands: 305)
Hero (MP): 134.3 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qc Qd
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 25.8 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 18.3 BB
Flop : (55.6 BB, 2 players) 2h 5s 6c
Hero checks, BTN bets 18 BB, Hero raises to 45 BB, BTN calls 27 BB
Turn : (145.6 BB, 2 players) Ad
Hero checks, BTN checks
River : (145.6 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero bets 15 BB, BTN raises to 34 BB, fold
BTN wins 166.8 BB
5 Replies
I don’t think we can fold the river here. You are calling 19bb to win 194 — you need to win about 9% of the time to break even on a call. Villain certainly has some combos, mostly JJ, that might take this line, that we beat. I’m pretty sure we beat at least 9% of his range here, so pretty easy call
I thought about whether he has a hand in range that I would bet and could not name one. Wouldn't have thought that JJ played like that, both on turn and river. But might be wrong..
I don’t think we can fold the river here. You are calling 19bb to win 194 — you need to win about 9% of the time to break even on a call. Villain certainly has some combos, mostly JJ, that might take this line, that we beat. I’m pretty sure we beat at least 9% of his range here, so pretty easy call
If JJ is coming into a game with stats that are, at a minimum, not loose, making a 4b pre over us and an UTG raiser, firing again on a low board, calling a check raise presumably because he puts us on AK and is making a last desperate bluff, watching quietly when AK gets there, and then effectively minraising our tiny river bet, then I want some of the drugs they are on.
Problem isn't river though, it's the flop. What exactly is OP hoping to achieve with a check raise?
Check-raise at all or the size of the check-raise? It was a mixture of protection and wanting to find out where I am at (not a good reason, I know). I thought his 4b range could be QQ+, AK, AQs AJs, KQs KJs, something like this. In any case, a loooot of kings and aces. Therefore I was happy not to see an ace or king on the flop and wanted to fold out a hand that did not hit but has decent equity against me. After he called the check-raise, I thought I was putting him on QQ+. Looking back at it now, the sizing of the XR is so small that he might continue much wider than I expected him to?
I'm not sure I've ever made a 4b pre with no ace no pair. Heck, I'm not sure the last time I even 3b either pre where it wasn't a jam in a donkament
