Is it so obvious that I don't have a boat?
This is a 10 NL hand against a reg who (my read is) doesn't like to call down large bluffs. Is the problem with this bluff that I have too few 3s and 4s to begin with? During the hand I just thought "I have more than you" but didn't consider that he would read my range as bluff-heavy. Or was it about the bet sizing (I don't often use pot on turn for example)?
Hero (BTN): 116.5 BB
MP: 201.9 BB (VPIP: 18.05, PFR: 15.76, 3Bet Preflop: 6.22, Hands: 568)
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has As 5s
fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold
Flop : (6.5 BB, 2 players) 4d 4c 3h
MP bets 3.3 BB, Hero calls 3.3 BB
Turn : (13.1 BB, 2 players) 3c
MP checks, Hero bets 13.1 BB, MP calls 13.1 BB
River : (39.3 BB, 2 players) 8h
MP checks, Hero bets 97.6 BB and is all-in, MP calls 97.6 BB
Hero shows As 5s (Two Pair, Fours and Threes)
(Pre 34%, Flop 29%, Turn 16%)
MP shows Jd Jh (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Pre 66%, Flop 71%, Turn 84%)
MP wins 222.8 BB
3 Replies
This is a very simple hand reading thing. If I have JJ, I think you don't have an overpair to mine on account of your lack of 3b pre. I know you don't have a boat (or, more pertinently, quads) as only really 44/33 fit your preflop range, and as you are killing the board in that instance, your turn bet would be nonsensical as you should want me to expect to improve to worse, or bluff the river myself. Your turn sizing to me reads like someone who is just clicking buttons randomly who doesn't know what they are doing, and is either on a pure bluff or something like 55-88 that thinks they are good. So I call, and then if you hit eights full on the river that is just unfortunate
Makes a lot of sense, thank you!
4 and 3 are low cards that barely hit anyone so a lot of players won’t trust the line
