*Sigh* EV
Hi guys,
As the title suggested, some frustration here after finally thinking I understood EV, but then GTOwiz slaps me in the face with different numbers than expected.
I think I am close to understanding, but probably missing 1 key factor.
To simplify my own example I used a hand where we shove with the nuts OTR.
To get to the river in this 4b pot example, we bet 25% flop 25% turn (only relevant to give insight on how the potsize ended up 101.2bb, villain has 49,9bb left in his stack).
Let's say we shove KK on K-K-6-T-2:
EV of shoving according to GTOwiz
The way I approach calculating and understanding EV was looking at villains call/fold% vs. shove: 60,6% call, 39,4% fold.
EV villain fold = (0,394*101,2) = 39,87
EV villain calls = (0,606*151,1) = 91,57
EV of shoving (in BB's) = (39,87+91,57)-(3bb rake)=128,44
So I'm 4bb off from my own calculation compared to what GTOwizzard. Can't figure out where I'm going wrong, would love to have some help solving this :-)
Thanks in regard
2 Replies
It's a river example, it just might not be fully converged and/or the folding/calling frequencies are global frequencies. When you shove with KK you're blocking a lot of calls. You'd have to look at what the frequencies would be when you hold exactly KK.
It's a river example, it just might not be fully converged and/or the folding/calling frequencies are global frequencies. When you shove with KK you're blocking a lot of calls. You'd have to look at what the frequencies would be when you hold exactly KK.
That does make sense. Would think blocking so much of villains calling range would have an even bigger impact on the EV, but it does explain the gap. Thanks!
