Book Announcement

Here's the first excerpt from the book:

.......................................When They Move In Preflop

It’s much more common in a tournament than a cash game but the criteria to use to call a pre-flop move-in are very similar. And it’s possible to calculate with precision exactly what you need to be favored when you call this bet. But using guidelines is almost as good.

First, we assume that there are no players behind you that might overcall. If there are, you might tighten up from these guidelines. But maybe not since you’ll now be getting better odds.

There are basically three types of hands that non desperate players move in with. They are:

1. A pocket pair.

2. An ace.

3. Two non-ace big cards.

If you somehow knew which category you faced, the hands you should call with could almost use simple common sense to determine whether to call. (Keeping in mind that you should probably fold if you deem it close.) But also keep in mind that you are getting odds. (Usually, a bit worse than 3-to-2.) You typically want hands that should win close to half of the time,

Here are some specifics:

1. When he has a pair, you want a bigger pair or two overcards,

2. When he has an ace, you want a bigger ace, a pair, or two cards higher than the opponent’s lowest card.

3. When he has two big cards that do not include an ace. you want an ace, a card bigger than his highest card, or any pair. (Also, when we say two high cards that do not include an ace we’re including hands like jack-ten offsuit and queen-ten offsuit in the all-in player’s range. If you do not think this opponent will include hands like this when he moves all-in, call a little tighter than is indicated above.)

The above guidelines are hands that are usually at least 45 percent against their category.

Notice that if an opponent will move-in with any of these hands he’s much more likely to have ace-x than the other hands. And frankly, if you just assumed he had ace-eight offsuit every time your conclusions as to what hands you should call him with would be approximately correct. But it’s not that hard to go into a little more detail and we’ll do that below.

Some All-in Match Ups

If your opponent will move all-in with any ace, two big cards that do not include an ace, or a pair, the ace is about as likely to be his hand as the other two hands combined. If you have ace-five offsuit, you’re about 55 percent against two big cards that do not include an ace. Against another ace, you’re about 40 percent. Against a pair, you’re on average about 33 percent. And if you’re against a range that contains all of these hands, it’s about 43 percent. Thus, considering your pot odds, this is about the minimum you need to call most all-in bets. Of course, if your ace-five was suited, it would certainly be correct to call.

When you have a pair of deuces, you’re about19 percent against a pair and about 51 percent against an ace or two big cards. This comes out to about 45 percent for the deuces, which again meets the minimum to call.

King-queen offsuit is about 41 percent against a pair (which can include aces or kings). Against two big cards that do not include an ace it’s about 68 percent. Against an ace its about 39 percent. Against a range that includes all of these, the king-queen offsuit is about 46 percent. It’s a call but king-jack offsuit is right on the borderline, and king-ten-offsuit is a fold. If the king-jack and king-ten were suited, they would be a call. But king-nine suited is a fold.