2024 Trading Thread
Well, 2023 went really well with less than market risk so well done me.
First trade of 2024 is $CPRI which is being taken over by $TPR at $57 cash.
FTC is looking into the merger and has asked for a second review, but it's really hard to see them being made a bigger laughingstock over actually trying to block a midtier leather bag and expensive shoe merger than the giant laughingstock they were made over the ATVI deal.
Deal is supposed to close ~end of Q1 now since FTC asked for more info. 14% deal spread is a nice annualized rate. It's a $6bn deal so you can buy all you want.
Tapestry has already raised the required funds in the bond market. No chance they try to [or can] void the deal with a MAC clause in Delaware.
Obv risk is deal breaking, stock probably drops to $35ish. Market is too pessimistic on this deal which is the issue.
I started to study years ago, but didn't had success. Took a time off, started to study and trade again a few years later, one more time I failed . Then, started again, and failed again.
Then decided I would become a poker player. (Had studied for some time in past). I studied for some months and made it up to 25NL. Then, I decided to try trading again because of the higher income potential.
I was determined to succeed. Took some time just studying and started to trade.
Around the 5° month of trade I had my 1° month of consistency.
But in half way I got completely out of track.
I absolutely had a mathematical edge but acquired a horrible mentality when started to make a relative decent money on a daily basis.
I stoped to be technical and think in terms of EV, and started to think only about making huge amounts of money (relative), everyday. I was taking trades I shouldn't when there were not good opportunities because I didn't want to have a day without making money.
I got blindly greedy after seeing those fat daily profits.
I started to use compounding calculator to forecast ideal returns for the next months and dream about a luxurious lifestyle. haha
And that was the phormula to fail again. Later or sooner I would **** up everything, because it's impossible to succeed in the markets with such trash mentality. In a certain day, I should just accept a 12 ticks stop and move on. But I was not acepting losses very well. I started to defend the next defense levels and increasing position size until I got so tilted I went 'ALL IN' and leave the room. When I was back to the screens I was broke. I'm glad this happened early.
Now, I'm starting again and determined to keep a world-class mentality.
These ones below are day by day P&L graphs.
what do you trade?
I started to study years ago, but didn't had success. Took a time off, started to study and trade again a few years later, one more time I failed . Then, started again, and failed again.
Then decided I would become a poker player. (Had studied for some time in past). I studied for some months and ma
If you havent you should read "Trading in the Zone" and "The Disciplined Trader" both by Mark Douglas. You sound like you have trouble with the mental aspects of trading. If you have a plan and methodology that fit your personality and risk parameters (and actually works on paper!) its just a question of executing that plan without all of the mental landmines that come with trading. When you are at the right edge of the chart waiting for the next bar to print emotion can easily scuttle your plans.
If you havent you should read "Trading in the Zone" and "The Disciplined Trader" both by Mark Douglas. You sound like you have trouble with the mental aspects of trading. If you have a plan and methodology that fit your personality and risk parameters (and actually works on paper!) its just a ques
Sure. I'll take a look.
In my opinion trading mental game is much harder than it is in poker. It's so easy to get biased. And a stop loss hits harder than a bad beat. It feels more like a personal failure, while in poker it feels just variance.
I achieved an amazing mental game in poker, and thought it would be the same in trading. But if I improved in poker I can also improve in trading.
What's your exprince regards trading?
Semi-retired (mostly retired!) trader of mostly options and futures. Started out making markets in TBond futures options in the pits at the CBOT in the 80's. Went on to trade almost anything and everything. Involved in the evolution from pits to screens. Nowadays I only trade ocassionally and mostly swing type trades rather than day trading, mostly options.
Semi-retired (mostly retired!) trader of mostly options and futures. Started out making markets in TBond futures options in the pits at the CBOT in the 80's. Went on to trade almost anything and everything. Involved in the evolution from pits to screens. Nowadays I only trade ocassionally and mos
Wow. That's a lot of experience. I have so much to learn.
May I know what type of approach do you use to trade?
Wow. That's a lot of experience. I have so much to learn.
May I know what type of approach do you use to trade?
I am primarily a trend follower. The trend is your friend 😀 I trade channel breakouts, momenetum and support/resistance for the most part. 100% technical trading. Also do mean reversion in trends which basically means buying dips in uptrends. This is my favored approach for equity options.
would you liken trend following in trading to steam chasing in sports betting, or are there other reasons that explain the edge in your view?
would you liken trend following in trading to steam chasing in sports betting, or are there other reasons that explain the edge in your view?
Not really. Trend/momentum is all about people bailing or switching positions while hitting stop orders that fuel the move. People taking heat capitulate and people winning pile on and the move accerarates.
I assume market will really see a few weeks of down period after election, im gonna look to buy into some safe returns when it does happen or if it happens
Can someone please explain to me why FLIC is up so much when they're in a pending merger w a stock price tethered to 12.40? I know it's up bc of the election, but I don't understand why it's up at all if the final price is known. Is this just bots moving in and out of this one? Make it make sense...
If you have time take a look at a company called Innodata. They are getting a bunch of contracts from the top 7 tech companies to help develop Large Language Models. It only has 500 million market cap. INOD.
Wowzers! When you posted this I looked into it and it looked good. I decided to jump in if it dipped. Which it did in late September. When it got below 14 I bought a couple hundred shares hoping to add more on more dip but apparently I caught the bottom and never added more. So a tiny position but my reseach was looking at a target in the low 30's. Instead of dumping here for profit I sold next Friday 35 calls at 3.00. Hope that isn't a big mistake? But its very small position so who cares. Hope I get called away as I see the biggest risk is a selloff back into the 20's.
Wowzers! When you posted this I looked into it and it looked good. I decided to jump in if it dipped. Which it did in late September. When it got below 14 I bought a couple hundred shares hoping to add more on more dip but apparently I caught the bottom and never added more. So a tiny position
Oooof! I was a little quick on the trigger there 😀 Uncharted territory technically since it went way past previous highs. But way overbought and through the price projections I had where I planned to exit when it got there. Will see where the dust settles in a week or two.
Tesla rocket shipped to 320+...
An AI and Robot company going to zero on the initiating phase of a 'network effect' trade?
I am not buying that idea, nope, no siree.
As an update I'm now 100% in cash/tbills. It's something that I hate, because I do love the action.
If I find something that looks attractive, I'll post it.
Pretty bad timing! Not really trying to pick on Max here. But any time you aren't long is bad timing. If he wouda been long until now and then went to cash/tbills it woulda been better. But it would still be bad. Stay long through thick and thin unless you are a genius timer (you aren't!). The stock market goes up. It has gone up since it's inception. It may dip, it may get painful, you may take heat but eventually you will win. Buy those dips! DCA over time and reinvest dividends and you are set.
But it's different this time! No it isn't 😀 It's never different, I'm old and I been there, Buy dips, stay long through the heat and profit. Stay long, reinvest dividends and have a happy retirement. Nuthin to it but to do it!
I get the short term excitement but it's it really worth more post election?
Latest deliveries was bad. All the AI stuff is still a flop. Falling behind BYD.
Musk is literally going to be telling DJT what to do.
EEOC investigation into discrimination at Tesla? Good bye
Fines for SpaceX leaving garbage around? Nah.
Fat contract to “modernize Fed hiring” or something? We’ll take that.
DOT wants to look a little closer at WayMo all
Of a sudden? Sounds right.
More tax credits for cars that seems to fit Tesla products and only Tesla products? You bet.
If you could have invested in Jared Kushners Middle East property portfolio would you have?
Musk is literally going to be telling DJT what to do.
EEOC investigation into discrimination at Tesla? Good bye
Fines for SpaceX leaving garbage around? Nah.
Fat contract to “modernize Fed hiring” or something? We’ll take that.
DOT wants to look a little closer at WayMo all
Of a sudd
Wouldn’t surprise me Elon/ trump cooperating wouldn’t last more then a year or 2 .
Only one get to be at the helm and it’s not in trump character to play second Fiddle .
Ps: will Elon stay aside when trump will gather all the credibility and success on Elon work ?
Doubt Elon wil not get tired of it eventually…
Target earnings is concerning. Stock murdered
