2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Just avoiding landmines in the first gives you a shot, is the theme to me. And wideouts are safer picks overall.

Barkley/Henry were first turn guys though and they won you leagues.

Herzig is not a YT content creator. He'll make guest appearances from time to time, but he doesn't regularly create content. He does work with ETR helping with rankings, etc. He advanced 37/150 in BBM, advanced 3/37 to the semis, and advanced 1/3 to the finals.

Davis was the YT content creator who was heavy Chiefs. He's also a Chiefs fan. I still think playing the Chiefs was a good move, but it didn't quite workout. Rice started great, Worthy is coming on, Hollywood was heavily involved when on the field last week, Pacheco got injured, etc. We never got to see the full offense. I will look forward to drafting all of them at cheaper prices next season, except maybe Rice. I'm still not sure how I'll play that one, but he has a **** ton of uncertainty. We'll see what his price is.

After watching Chuba's production in the Panthers offense, I still feel confident Jonathan Brooks was a good pick and would probably play it the same way again. There is both upside and downside to working off of imperfect information.

As far as whether zero RB, hero RB, robust RB, etc. were good strategies or not, I still think you're focused on the wrong things. Obviously, advancing from your draft pods is important, as you can't win if you don't. But if you're only focused on advance rates, then you're probably not going to win money in the long run. A large percentage of the prize pool pays out in week 17. If you're not playing for week 17, then none of the rest of it matters. Just like with tournament poker. If your primary goal is to min cash, then you're not going to win very often, if at all. You have to chase upside and uncertainty to win.

The heavy early WR strategy, the elite TE strategy, the elite QB strategy, etc. are all about trying to find the highest upside possible during the playoff weeks, and especially week 17. You're chasing injury chaos and backfield uncertainty with zero and hero RB, which generally plays out each season.

The whole idea of zero or hero RB is that the opportunity cost of missing out on the elite WRs, elite TEs, and elite QBs is too much in exchange for the available RBs later. Guys like Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle, who you clowned on for the first 2 months of the season, but we haven't seen you post about recently. Guys like Bucky and Chuba and Tracy and Dobbins and Charbs and so on have all had meaningful contributions. Even the higher drafted, but still cheap, guys in Conner, Kamara, Jones, Monty, etc. were good to great picks.

I'll continue to argue we don't know what we don't know as far as actual results, so the best strategy is to mostly level exposures and instead focus on good construction and avoid drafting a bunch of the same combos. I mostly ranged 4-20% exposures for every single player in my portfolio. Rarely are there players you want to completely fade and rarely are there players you want to draft at 30%+. Even Saquon, if you drafted him at 30%+, you would have had great advance rates but you also would have lost a lot of those teams in week 15. Pittman is a good example of someone who was a clear and easy fade this season, but there also aren't many of those. And hell, if the Colts had been able to stick with Flacco for a long period of time, fading Pittman could have burned you. Overall, the market still does a pretty damn good job.

I wouldn't have clowned on Chase Brown if it was just Chase Brown in the backfield. Why would I clown on him once his situation improved? Rico turned out better than I thought.

I drafted a lot of Mahomes, Kelce, Worthy and Rice. Pacheco and Hollywood were always bad picks. I believe I was the first to do the Kelce/Mahomes combo at the 3/4 turn. That turned out to be a disaster.

I nailed the Bucky and Dobbins picks. Pittman and Zamir White were the easiest fades by far. I also nailed the complete fade of Musgrave and took Kraft round 18 instead. I failed miserably with my flag plant of Dulcich in round 18. Apparently it's not a good idea to take players who can't block or catch. Also, I thought I was mr smart guy taking Jaylen Warren whenever I could.

But that's the entire point of zero/hero RB. It isn't about what the situation is in week 1. It's what the situation can be in week 17. Hence chasing uncertainty and upside.

If it had just been Chase Brown in the backfield with no competition, he would have been 5-6 rounds more expensive.

I liked Chase brown until he started going ahead of moss and than I pivoted to moss .

I tend to go for the cheaper option in a backfield .

Chasing the cheaper option can work out. But when the players are similarly priced, I don't really want to take a stand. I want to chase even exposure for both and hope that one takes control, either through good play or injury or sometimes both.

Warren/Najee
Brown/Moss
Zeke/Dowdle
BRob/Ekeler
Pollard/Spears

All of those combos were drafted within a round or so of each other.

Chasing the cheaper option is much more appealing when there is a large discrepancy in ADP, especially if you're fading the expensive option.

Bijan/Allgeier
Jacobs/Lloyd
Kyren/Corum
CMC/Mason
KW/Charbs
Conner/Benson
Breece/Braleon
Etienne/Tank
Rachaad/Bucky

And so on.

Sometimes, all it takes is one.

I invested about $1500 in best ball teams on UD and Draftkings this season. Went 0/20 in DK on advancing from regular season so many 3 and 4th places finished. Much better on UD advanced maybe 10-12% of teams across various bball contents. Got a bunch of mini cashes and one made it to the 140 person final week for badge bros brawln its 6 max league contests it was $10 buy in with first place 50k and top 140 all guaranteed $500 I pretty much need to make final table to guaranteed a profit this year.

Here is my lineup, I think I have a good shot if purdy debo and Kittle can have monster games what do you guys think?

QB
L Jackson vs Houston
Purdy vs Detriot

RB
James Cook vs Jets
David Montgomer Injured :(
R Stevenson vs Charges
R Mostert vs clevland (achane injury one time lol)
Chase Brown vs Broncos

Wr
Chase vs Broncos
J Jefferson vs packers
Deebo Samuel vs detroit
Nice Collins vs Ravens
Mike Evans vs Panthers
Tee Higgins vs Broncos
Amari Cooper vs jets
Jaxon smith Nijgba vs Bears
Deandre Hopkins vs steelers

TE:
La Porta vs niners
Kittle vs lions

Lets gooooooo!!!

First time in 3 years making it to any kind of bball finals

Hell yeah, congrats.

If Cook and Brown can give you top 5-10 weeks, you’ll have a real chance. A lot of elite upside everywhere else.

I know it’s 6 max, but that WR room is absurd.

Yea that wr core in impressive .

Thanks fellas!!
I experimented with 3 formats some 6max drafts heavy wr others heavy at rb and then a balanced mix

I noticed that my most successful teams where when I went wr heavy

Part of that was I didn’t have the right rb combo a lot of teams In the finals have combination of 4+rb such as Henry,sayquan, Williams or brown or cooks or gibs or Jacobs with Irving or charb being there worst back

Always appreciate your analysis and input bud and as well as dgoats and many other members in this community

Agreed If somehow cooks and brown shooot even Stephenson can get 80 yards and 2 td each I like the chances for a deep run

I also need Cook to go off so let’s get it !! .

I have. I guys going until Sunday in my final.

I joined 3 best ball leagues on yahoo.

Currently projected to win 2, and the 3rd was pretty ugly (projected 9th of 10).

Between the 2 wins plus some weekly wins, i should more than double my investment. Nothing crazy, but nice to have a positive result.

Yahoo best ball is just a 17 week long venture with top score each week getting a piece, plus the top 3 finishers overall getting paid, for those who aren't aware.

Too many almost tds for Warren. Would’ve been nice to get 19 instead of 13

Worthy, Kelce and Mahomes making a mark.

Feel like it’s time to bench Lamar, not biased at all

Please don’t.

Balt/Hou was the negative w17 correlation.

Idk what happened. Baltimore defense was awful .

Not as bad as Stroud.

We deploying Charb with top 15RB confidence today?

I guess all you can ask for is bell cow status. Which he is today.

I went back to look at my yahoo draft review. I wish i knew what their criteria was for grading. It feels like it's always negative for my drafts.

I got a D-, projected to go 2-12 and finish 11th of 12 teams.

Reality was 10-4, 2nd place, and playing for the championship. Good thing we play the season. Lol

If you want a good yahoo draft review, draft 2 QBs, 2 dst, don’t draft any upside backup RBs, instead draft the zamir white, Gus Edwards of the world

You’ll come in last probably, but you’ll get an A haha

I guess the silver lining of missing the finals is now I can root hard for Saquon to go ham this weekend.

I’m not sure how we can’t. In 6 career games without KW, PPR scoring.

85% snaps, 12.9
88% snaps, 9.8
96% snaps, 17.9
84% snaps, 25.7
80% snaps, 38.3
80% snaps, 13.6

The last 4 are games this season. Throw in the Bears being bad overall and against RBs, he’s a top 10 play.