2024 Fantasy Football Thread

I’m still not convinced it’s the highest ceiling approach. But my takeaway is that I should be implementing 3 QBs through 5-6 rounds more often than I am, which is not that often. I don’t think I can do 4 lol.

My most common approach is 2 projected starters and 2 backups.

But I guess if 3 starting QBs in 1QB, cost adjusted of course, is showing as +ev in the sims. It’s probably +ev in SF too.

I'm thinking the reason for wanting to take 3 QBs in the first 5-6 rounds is that the QBs after R6 are going to have much lower floors. Whereas the RB/WR that you get after R6 can still have high ceilings.

It's definitely a floor raiser. I imagine it's a big reason that guy was double the field on advance rates, because on top of giving yourself more QB options to hit your own lineup, you're also taking those options away from other drafters. Plus, it helps you cover injuries and byes more easily. But I need to see more to know if it's actually a ceiling raiser for the money weeks.

Here are the QB rooms of the top 10 Puppy SF teams last year. This contest was quite a bit smaller than this year's. Total entrants were 67.2k with a 280 team final. The order is from first to 10th.

So a pretty solid mix, but having only 2 strong starters for the money weeks seems pretty viable. 2nd place had Lock hit their lineup.

Here was my highest scoring regular season team last year. 10 position players outscored my QB2. 17.1 of Levis's points came on Burrow's bye week. I scored 161.30 in w15 and got 3rd in the pod.

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Also, I did a test of 3 QBs that are a possible combo in the current ADP environment and that also started all 17 games last year. My only focus was how many points the 3rd QB added above the first two QBs drafted. I'm obviously ignoring a lot of other variables.

I evaluated two different levels of combo, one from the front half of the draft and one from the back half.

The first one I did was Lamar, Goff, and Geno.

Geno replaced Goff in 4 total weeks for a total of 31.6. Geno replaced Lamar in 2 total weeks for a total of 2.7. Geno scored 22.6 on Goff's bye week. Geno scored 13.3 on Lamar's bye week. Lamar and Goff far outscored Geno in w17.

The second one I did was Mahomes, Nix, Herbert

Herbert replaced Mahomes in 2 total weeks for a total of 11.5. Herbert replaced Nix in 7 total weeks for a total of 16.1. Herbert scored 13.7 on Mahomes's bye week. Herbert scored 13.7 on Nix's bye week. W17 was one of the weeks Herbert outscored Nix, but it was only by 1.5 points.

So yeah, I'm not convinced it does anything for ceiling without further evaluation.

Schnauzer Pick 3

QB) Hurts, Kyler, Dimes

RB) Achane, Henderson, Javonta, Guerendo, B Allen, Giddens

WR) Lamb, Harrison, Samuel, Kupp, Pittman, Tillman, AD Mitchell

TE) Kittle, Goedert

Looks good to me

Drafters Main

Nix, Maye, Penix

Bucky, Chase, Mondre, Shipley, Giddens, JCM

Chase, Sutton, Flowers, Jeudy, Diggs, Thornton, Iosivas, Malik

Engram, Ferguson, Pitts

I forgot about Drafters.

This is good. You are deep everywhere. Is Malik Malik Washington?

Yes, it's Washington

Schnauzer pick 1.

This draft started off so well and then I got burried on second QB. I almost double clicked Dimes/AR. I chose to go with Russ with Wondale.

QB) Nix, Russ, Dimes

RB) Jacobs, Montgomery, Judkins, Blue, B Allen

WR) Chase, Sutton, D Smith, Higgins, Bateman, Mims, Legette, Wondale

TE) Bowers, Theo

Starting around 59:30, PPRTyler talks about the 3 QB start in SF. He is vehemently against it haha. He talks about how it's a floor raiser, but it's a ceiling capper, which is how I feel about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAeGTLHo...

My most preferred way of drafting 3 week 1 projected starters is when you don't get an elite and it's with guys who go in rounds 3-6. I think doing it that way is both a floor raiser and a potential ceiling raiser. But when you do it with a first round QB, especially the 4 elites, it just can't be good for winning the contest.

I did do one more exercise of QBs that could be drafted in rounds 3-6 who played all games last year. I cheated a little bit with Darnold as my 3rd QB, given his season last year. But it shows the power of hitting on one of the later QBs who is a week 1 starter. Darnold was a 17th round pick last year to start the contest. He finished around round 9. If you have a team that hits on the Indy guys, NYG guys or Clev guys, it will provide an advantage.

I did Herbert, Stroud, Darnold. Darnold replaced Herbert in 6 weeks for a total of 53.7. Darnold replaced Stroud in 7 weeks for 63.1. Darnold scored 5.3 on Herbert's bye. Darnold scored 34.6 on Stroud's bye.

There was only one non-bye week where Darnold didn't replace one of Stroud or Herbert. But I think what that really says if you would have been better off taking an elite RB or WR instead of one of Herbert or Stroud and then rolling with Darnold later. Again, I think the ceiling play is to stick to only two week 1 starters through 6 rounds and hope to hit the right combos.

I like the Elite rb/wr x 2 followed by three QBs start

That 3-5-7-3 hits hard. It's very interesting to see the two highest percentage of finals team builds both have 3 TEs.

Triple rb start

Goff, Love, Shough

Bijan, Achane, Brown, Braelon, Corum

Jamo, Flowers, Olave, Golden, Shaheed, Doubs, Wilson

Hock, Kincaid, Juwan

UD added a $7 with $40k to 1st and a $5 with $25k to 1st.

DK responded by adding

$8 with $5k to 1st
$50 with $2k to 1st

lol I love how they added two versions of the $50 and three versions of the $8.

Two SF.

I got a little weird in this one and pulled up Dak/Tua from their respective ADPs. Then Goff also fell 4 spots. There can't be many Dak, Goff, Tua teams, even with their ADPs lining up given the dynamic of the elites on the front of the board. I stacked pretty heavily in the first half of the draft.

Here is a second one.

The second one had Shaidy in the room. His team can't be good. He had 4 QBs through 9, which I guess I don't completely hate when it's those 4, but he didn't execute it very well, imo. The only stacking partners with any of Tua/Dimes/Dart are Skattebo and Giddens. He's decent at RB, but bet on the rookies quite a bit. He got a small fall on Zay. But his WR room isn't that impressive either. He pulled up Bowers and then also drafted 3 total TEs.

Just tough when you have 4 QBs and a TE through the first 9 rounds, especially with the limited stacking.

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I've been in one draft (regular) with Shaidy and also wasn't impressed with his team. Is he known as a BestBall guy? I know he's really good at DFS, but those are obviously two entirely different games.

Also, I may need to rethink my 'Miami is going to win at least 10 games' take if they plan on playing Tua at WR as well 😉

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Haha I’m big trouble if Tua is substituted for Reek at WR.

And yeah, Shaidy took 3rd in BBMIV. I’m sure he’s had success elsewhere. And definitely insane at DFS too.

I know he’s heavily involved with the sims and LegUp tool. I think that’s his primary involvement with the company.

Pitbull

Kyler, Caleb, Bryce

Jacobs, Chuba, Conner, Tuten, Hill

Puka, AJB, DJM, Diggs, Aiyuk, M Wilson, Coker

Kraft, Gesicki, Sanders

Getting to the end of the Shnauzer's....Pick 9

Lots of rookies.

QB) Mahomes, Stroud, Tua

RB) Jeanty, Kamara, Henderson, Tuten, Dowdel, J Hunter

WR) Nico, Tyreek, Worthy, Mooney, J Higgins, P Bryant, D Slayton

TE) Kelce, Shultz.

Watching the Spags DK Milly stream from earlier.

Starts with Chase at the 1.01

Somehow gets Ladd and AJB to fall all the way to the 2/3 turn, but goes with Ladd/Chase Brown instead.

Chase, Ladd, and AJ Brown would be a dream start. He is getting too cute with the Bengal stack. I hate it. Now I have to watch it just to see what was going through his head.

He’s such a bum.

Especially in PPR.

Keenan Allen seems like a free square easy pick as your 7th or 8th receiver. We see this every year. A player goes unsigned and goes late in drafts and then gets signed and goes several rounds earlier. What am I missing here?