2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of Jan
Rip my big board contests
Sucks when the pre-draft variance goes against you. Two of your highest exposures both retired. I had 6% Mike, so that doesn't feel great, either. The Mike retirement news is good for Tre and QJ.
I'm not sure if either of you subscribed to Herzig's FFin60, but he had an interesting hypothetical in today's newsletter which is relevant to our stacking discussions.
He had a hypothetical. In w17, would you rather.
Fields: 180 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 67 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs = 29.9 fpts
or
Goff: 325 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 15 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs = 26.5 fpts
Spoiler
It’s a topic I’ve been thinking about a good amount this summer. The minor difference in drafting high-upside players vs high-upside teams.
In this example, the notable difference is the additional 145 passing yards and 2 passing TDs that Goff threw. It is likely my team has Goff stack partners that also had big days, elevating the overall score of my entire lineup. Compare that to Fields and it’s unlikely any (and definitely not multiple) players also had great performances.
While I’m giving up 3.4 points at the QB position, I likely make up for that with my correlated pass catchers while increasing the likelihood of high-end team outcomes.
If we accept this to be true, it should then also change how we rank and draft players in best ball. We value rushing QBs in fantasy because of the floor/upside combos we get with them. But for best ball, shouldn’t we also be valuing QB situations like Detroit where when our QB hits, it’s more likely multiple players from our team hits? Just something to think about when you’re drafting…
I’m subscribed - I mostly agree with his take, but I think it’s a little bit too precise of a take. Like fields could just run in 2-3 tds and outscore my stacked qb by a lot even if my stacked qb throws 2 tds to my top wr or w/e
Haha I already forgot about Carr. Damn.
For sure, there are a lot of directions it can go. It also assumes you have the right stacking partners when the pocket QB does go off.
Ultimately, I think it continues to reinforce stacking is correct.
Yeah I just can’t see how stacking could possibly be proven incorrect
Like we have actual solvers in dfs that show how valuable stacking is and w17 is essentially a dfs contest so that alone tells you it’s likely good. I would be shocked if stacking had a negative impact on advancing just due to making fewer bets on fewer offenses (smaller parlay), but even if it had a slightly negative impact on advancing, the positives in the week where all the money is would surely outweigh the negatives
Yeah I think I only drafted 2 shares post out of Herbert backstack desperation
I really like this team. I got a lot of value.
Baker, Love, Bryce
Jacobs, Cook, Jones, Dowdle, Wright, Shipley
JJ, Tee, Tet, Godwin, Egbuka, Doubs, Coker, Keenan
Kraft, Kincaid, Sanders
I passed on JJM for Love and like making that play for uniqueness on some teams. JJ/JJM was the highest combo drafted when the DK data was released, so I definitely want to leverage off of it on certain teams. Goff with Lions is another way to do that, but I'd imagine Goff will end up as the 2nd highest QB drafted with JJ.
I like it, strong at all the positions
Rice at 36
Mahomes, TLaw
BRob, Dobbins, Charb, Guerendo, Blue, Hill
BTJ, London, Rice, JSN, Hunter, Olave, ADM
Strange, Chig, Fannin
Had to get creative at QB
Mahomes, Rodgers, Shough
Kyren, Kamara, Pacheco, Najee, Dowdle
Puka, Ladd, Worthy, Jeudy, Shaheed, Tre, Royals
Njoku, Pitts, Jonnu
Caleb, Tlaw, Bryce
Breece, Pollard, Jones, Shipley, Hill
ARSB, Btjr, Rome, Jennings, Burden, Tillman, Coker
Kittle, Goedert
Whoops forgot I had Corum on that team too
Kyren has become a soft fade for me, mostly bc I just prefer Breece and Hampton in that range
Plus I have a bunch of Kyren already and he makes me a bit nervous bc he’s very deadzoney
haha I've been mixing in more Kyren on my Puka and London teams for the W17 and also because I don't think Corum/Hunter are all that good.
Hurts, Ward, AR
CMC, BRob, Najee, Javonte, Shipley
AJB, Wilson, Ridley, Pearsall, Shakir, Pop, ADM
Andrews, Goedert, Chig
Is Sampson/Judkins stupid?
Hurts, Tua, Dimes
Bijan, Warren, Judkins, Mondre, Sampson
Reek, Tee, Waddle, Godwin, Pearsall, Wandale, Thornton
Warren, J Ferguson, Waller
Puppy 2...pick 1
Is this too many Bronco WR's?
QB) Bo, Fields
RB) Jacobs, C Brown, Montgomery, Wright, Giddens
WR) Chase, D Smith, Sutton, Deebo, Mims, Hollywood, P Bryant, Allen
TE) Warren, NJoku, Gray
I think it looks good. Only thing I’d have done differently is add at least one stacking partner with Fields.
