2024 Fantasy Football Thread

These playoff drafts are frustrating . Guys aren’t drafting to win first place they are just drafting to advance it appears .

That sounds like a positive thing to me haha!

Haha, yeah from what I’ve read and heard, you have to be prepared for some rooms to completely blow up your plan. But if you play enough volume, you’ll end up with some really nice teams.

That’s the plan lol. Had to vent to someone though .

Are my AR bags live for the playoffs?

Upon further review I change my mind about Chris Spaggs. He is excellent when he is on somebody elses podcast. He knows his stuff and I think unfairly gets a bad wrap.

Neil Orfield is not good. I had listened to him because he was one of the few pods that had last minute ownership info. His player takes are trash. I think this is an example of a guy who ran hot for a while and now variance is taking it's toll. I kind of went with his takes for the first 8 weeks specifically on showdown slates. I didn't feel comfortable with his advice. In fact, many people in the chat would question him. I think he is too solver and game theory oriented. The last three weeks I have killed it and it coincides with not listening to him.

Maybe Spags knows what he’s doing for DFS, but I’ll keep fading for best ball.

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In fairness to Spags, best ball is 100% luck. It's simply a game of injury survival. He may be missing some very high owned guys.

Then find out and let me know. Because his stats are dog ****.

Seems more likely he’s not good at best ball, which despite what you think, is not 100% luck. Winning a single contest, yes, that requires insane run good.

Constantly beating advance rate expectations and finals teams expectation is skill, and players exist who can do that. I don’t believe Spags is one of them.

No question his stats are bad. I have a hard time believing he is bad at best ball. Is the tournament poker pro bad because he hasn't cashed in a long time?

I would not use the word "skill" in this game. You do need to know what you are doing regarding roster construction. You do need to know what you are doing in the draft itself. The ability to win comes at the expense of mistakes made by the casuals. After this it is all injury luck. I happen to have an edge in regards to player evaluations. I'm also very good at knowing who to fade. I don't think there are players who are necessarily better than me. I will happily go head to head with someone who has all the tools and will at minimum equal how well they do. If your advance rates are good you have survived the injuries. My advance rates are pretty good this year and I literally put no effort in the offseason like I normally would.

I’m sure.

Did a couple playoff drafts this AM. Saw someone start with Achane, Tua, Waddle and draft 3 QBs.

Welcome back, Bucky!

Adonai crushing too.

I don't have a ton of either, but I went from 16% to 21% in the Milly.

I have a decent amount of both. Needed Bucky to come back strong!

Bucky
10% pre
11% post

ADM
16% pre
10% post

Kind of crazy how the Jets managed to put together a group of Wilson, Metchie and ADM. If they can find a QB next year, that’d be a lot of fun to watch.

Someone tell Eaglezzz there is no skill involved. Dude has been crushing this season.

2nd place BBM regular season.

My best team is up to 467. Which is cool from a percentile standpoint, but not as much from a winnings standpoint lol.

Lmao that guy (Eaglezzz) gets so much hate, but always absolutely crushes

CHI v DEN with outs to DEN/LAR

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CHI v BUF with outs to BUF/LAR or CHI/NE

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They make sense to me.

I bet Eaglezzz is running very hot in the injury department in BBM. That's the only thing that matters.

Also, not bright having Fields as your number 2 when it's quite probable he will be benched.

Sometimes you run very hot in a very small sample size.

Ah yes, I'm sure he's really upset that Fields is his #2 as he sits in 2nd place for the regular season crown. You should always be drafting like you're right, not worrying about downside, especially if playing volume.

The cool part about having a public database is that we can verify those injuries and underperforming players!

Eaglezzz drafted 965 teams. Of those 965, he's advancing 263 for 27.3% when his baseline is 191.1 for 19.8%. So roughly 40% more than he's expected.

I'll only pull from the roughly top 100, since that's where most of the scoring comes from.

Nabers - 158 teams for 16.4%.
Brian Thomas - 67 teams for 7%.
Bucky - 62 for 6.4%.
Reek - 61 teams for 6.3%.
McLaurin - 89 teams for 9.2%.
Pearsall - 80 teams for 8.3%.
Meyers - 111 teams for 11.5%.
Jeudy - 140 teams for 14.5%.
Reed - 68 teams for 7%.
Pacheco - 59 teams for 6.1%.
Kaleb - 99 teams for 10.25%.
Burden - 109 teams for 11.3%.
Skattebo - 81 teams for 8.4%.

How the hell is he doing so well!?!

He did mostly fade the guys coming in injured. 32 teams of Aiyuk, 22 teams of Godwin, 27 teams of Diggs, 20 teams of Mixon. Only 2 teams of Rashee haha, wow.

It's also interesting to see how he attacked QBs in the top 100.

Josh - 20
Lamar - 20
Jayden - 58
Hurts - 147
Burrow - 45
Mahmoes - 57
Kyler - 47
Baker - 33

All that to say that you're simply wrong about how this game is played and won.

1) He was wrong on Fields wasn't he?

2) I have a similar advance rate between Draft Kings and Underdog.

3) He is running well. Good for him. Twenty years from now when there is actually a sufficient sample size we will see how good he actually is.