Are Play Money Games on PokerStars manipulated to encourage real-money play?

1. I have never played on Pokerstars so take whatever I say with a grain of salt because my actual knowledge is zero.

2. You are talking about play money which is a weird range. Most legitimate providers of real money games (which should include Stars) will have their play money games be just as legitimate. Simply because if it is demonstrated that their play money games are rigged it immediately calls into question their real money games. The risk reward simply isn't worth it. Fixing play money games doesn't get them much (maybe a few extra customers) but the loss of reputation hurts them immensely.

3. I think that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Your claim that a big site like Stars is fixing their games (even play money), is extraordinary. It requires more than just a few odd hands you feel weird about.

4. Variance can be extreme. There are enough poker players playing in various games around the world that some of them are extreme outliers. They are experiencing extreme positive or negative variance. The evidence of strange hands you have provided so far is not outside the range of just normal variance, let alone being an outlier. You need more proof.

5. This doesn't mean you are wrong. If I was in your shoes, I would pay more attention and try and collect some meaningful data.

If you have been running unusually well, that should mean others have been running unusually poorly, and therefore would be less likely to want to play for real money,

I keep hearing the argument that it would be counterproductive for the providers themselves to manipulate anything in the game.

The providers also know that it is difficult for outsiders to prove any kind of manipulation.

Ten years ago I said that the providers themselves use bots. And that is exactly the case.

At least so-called "liquidity bots", where liquidity here does not stand for money but for the number of active players. If the providers do not do it themselves, then they have external providers like Deepplay (https://deeplay.io/eng/) do it.

Just read the following articles and do further research yourself.

https://www.the-rounder.net/blog/poker-i...
https://www.pokernews.com/news/2024/09/i...
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-p...
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-...
https://en.pokerpro.cc/poker-news/a-furt...

"By effectively using the accumulated information about players and the flow of data about their activity in real time, we develop algorithms for optimizing work with the client base. Our solutions will ensure effective management of the client experience. The development of individual adaptive strategies for working with each user of the game will increase monetization."

( https://web-archive-org.translate.goog/w... )

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/ne...

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/ne...
A 2019 post here with some facts about bf corp. where later deeplay came from.

Anyone who realizes that this is not a joke is welcome to simply collect more sources. (Please no baseless claims or accusations. Just sources, nothing else.)

https://x.com/AlrightJacked

Since online poker has existed, there have been people who think everything is a scam, etc. If you hear things like that more often, it gets annoying, bothersome... right?

That's one of the reasons why this topic doesn't explode like a bomb. No matter how clear the evidence is. When someone talks about online poker scams, many people automatically stop listening. Simply because they've heard it far too often.

You find the idea that a website would deliberately manipulate a play money game so they were more effective ads for real money games extraordinary? Why do you think they run them? Extraordinary would be to not create the most effective ads you can.

Do you guys think they would be going to the trouble to make sure every play Monday player ran good?

We used to have a weekly play money game of people from this forum.
Some people had better luck than others, and everyone chatted.

The only way they could make all real players run good would be to have at least half the players be bots who were programmed to lose. Do you see that the losing players never chat or otherwise seem fishy?

Only idiots make ALL real players happy. Why do those that oppose the truth always create strawman to oppose? Plenty of profit to make 10% run better than they should. And if your game was only populated by real people no bots to do the losing.

Post your findings then? like the hand distributions over your month of play money hands.

No one who wants to gamble their money goes on playmoney tables - if you have money to deposit and play then you will do so - why would they target this market made up of people who either can't or don't want to play for real money with a risky rigging strategy? I mean, you can play 2nl for pennies so anyone who is not already playing real money poker probably isn't worth targetting anyway

I have no idea what you were trying to say here.

It’s possible that what you're noticing in play money games on PokerStars is just variance or the way their system is designed to keep things fun and engaging, especially since there’s no real money at stake. Play money games often have different dynamics compared to real money games, with players being more experimental and the system potentially creating favorable outcomes to keep people playing.

While it might seem suspicious, it’s unlikely that PokerStars is intentionally manipulating hands to get you to move to real-money play. The patterns you're seeing could be a result of confirmation bias — you notice the good hands more than the regular ones.

That said, trust is important, even in play money games. If it feels off, it's understandable, but unless you have concrete evidence of something wrong, it’s probably just how the system works. If you’re concerned, focusing on real-money games, where the stakes matter, might feel more comfortable.

I think I explained that fairly clearly.

For a major poker site (such as Stars) the loss of reputation for having rigged games (even play money) would greatly exceed the benefit for having rigged games (especially play money).

Think about it, if a major poker site is going to take the risk of rigging their games, why in the heck would they do it in the play money games where they wouldn't benefit?

As others have pointed out, ensuring some win in their play money games means ensuring others lose in their play money games. They are turning off more potential players as they would gain.

There is literally no benefit to a major site rigging their play money games and major downsides.

Therefore I conclude it would be extraordinary for a major site to rig its play money games. It would require extraordinary proof.

A small, niche site. Sure. Why not? What do they have to lose.

What would be thr implications of it was discovered the a major site like Stars was cheating. It would destroy them. They are making money hand over fist. There is no need for them to run those risks.

So by making 10% run good yoU are turning off 90% of potential future real money players. How exactly does that benefit Stars?

I think you need to re-evaluate the target of your idiot comment.