Calculation To Determine Point At Which Rake Becomes Unbeatable
There are a lot of private 5-10 games (nlhe and plo) in my area. Blinds are usually 5-10 with frequent straddling (open straddle). The game are incredibly soft, however, the rake is ridiculously high. It's usually either a 10% rake with a cap of 50€ or a 5% unlimited cap. On top of that they commonly have an hourly high-hand promotion for which they take an additional 10€ from every pot that surpasses 300€ (pretty much every pot that is) which the winner then gets once an hour.
I know from other threads that such a rake is basically a crime and probably not beatable long-term. However, is there a definitive way to calculate if it is or isn't?
1 Reply
To determine if a poker game with a high rake is beatable long-term, you need to calculate whether your expected win rate exceeds the effective rake you’re paying, expressed in a comparable metric like big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100). Your private 5-10 NLHE and PLO games have blinds of €5-€10, frequent straddling (e.g., €20 open), soft competition, and a brutal rake structure: either 10% with a €50 cap or 5% with no cap, plus an additional €10 per pot over €300 for an hourly high-hand promotion (common, given the action). Here’s how to definitively assess it.
Step 1: Calculate Rake Impact
Assume 30 hands per hour (typical for live games) and estimate average pot sizes based on the stakes and softness.
10% Rake, €50 Cap:
€400 pot (reasonable with straddling): 10% = €40 rake.
€500+ pot: €50 cap applies.
Say €45 average rake per hand (pots often hit the cap): €45 × 30 = €1,350/hour ÷ 30 = €45/hand.
5% Rake, No Cap:
€400 pot: 5% = €20.
€1,000 pot (PLO, big action): 5% = €50.
Average €30/hand (mixed pots): €30 × 30 = €900/hour ÷ 30 = €30/hand.
High-Hand Promo: €10 per €300+ pot, nearly every hand qualifies (soft, straddled games).
30 pots/hour = €300 extra raked. Over 100 hands (3.33 hours), €1,000 raked total. High-hand pays €200-€300 to one winner hourly. For 9 players, you win 1/9th (11%), so ~€33 back per 100 hands. Net loss: €1,000 - €33 = €967 ÷ 100 = €9.67/hand.
Total Rake:
10% + Promo: €45 + €9.67 = €54.67/hand.
5% + Promo: €30 + €9.67 = €39.67/hand.
Step 2: Convert to bb/100
Big blind = €10.
10% + Promo: €54.67 × 100 = €5,467 ÷ €10 = 546.7 bb/100.
5% + Promo: €39.67 × 100 = €3,967 ÷ €10 = 396.7 bb/100.
Step 3: Your Win Rate
In a soft game (high VPIP, loose play), a skilled player might win 5-10 bb/100 pre-rake in a low-rake environment (e.g., 3% cap $15). “Incredibly soft” could push 15-20 bb/100—say, €150-€200 profit per 100 hands before rake. Against fish (50%+ VPIP, calling stations), 20 bb/100 is aggressive but plausible.
Step 4: Net Win Rate
10% + Promo: 20 bb/100 - 546.7 bb/100 = -526.7 bb/100.
5% + Promo: 20 bb/100 - 396.7 bb/100 = -376.7 bb/100.
Even at 30 bb/100 (elite edge): -516.7 and -366.7 bb/100.
Definitive Calculation
Log Data: Track 100 hands—record pots, rake paid, high-hand wins. Average rake/hand = (Total € raked ÷ Hands).
Pre-Rake Win Rate: (€ won before rake ÷ €10) ÷ Hands × 100 = bb/100.
Net: Pre-rake bb/100 - (Rake €/hand ÷ €10 × 100). Positive = beatable.
Verdict
Unbeatable. The rake’s obscene—10% capped alone might flirt with break-even (10-15 bb/100 drag) if pots stay small and promo’s skipped, but 5% uncapped scales too hard, and €10/pot sinks it. You’d need 400-500 bb/100 pre-rake—impossible long-term, even against drunks. Standard casino rake (3-5%, €15 cap) lets skill shine; this is a vacuum. Walk away or negotiate it down—softness can’t outrun that bleed.
