I just can't run good...
Has anyone run so bad that they begin to doubt there ability as a poker player, I play a sound GTO, based strat. But it seems I just get unlucky? How do you take luck out of the situation?
18 Replies
There is no taking the luck out of the situation, it’s poker, luck is involved. You can only mitigate the impact of negative variance (luck) in two ways.
Be sure that you’re actually playing well. Poker in the modern day is hard. Have you spent hundreds of hours effectively studying and do you regularly review your own hands? If not it’s a safe bet you’re probably not as good as you think you are.
And once you’re confident you are good, volume cures variance. If you’re not playing a lot, even as a crusher you will have crazy downswings. Treat 300-500 hours of live cash, 25K-50K online cash hands, 100-300 live tournaments (more depending on the format, ) and 500-1000 online tournaments (more depending on the format) as the smallest sample sizes you’re looking at when considering results, and realize even those are very small samples.
You can't. Take the best player in the world in NLHE with 100BBs. They are not a 6-1 favorite over a 2 year old that says "all in" blind every hand. Oh and despite the first reply volume limits variance it does not cure it. You might need to be in the bottom 1% of luck rather than bottom 10% but even the best player in the world if they are running in the bottom 1% is losing.
We have all been right here at one point. Poker doesn't care who started with the best hand, but punishes anyone who finishes with the second best hand.
Playing hundreds of thousands of hands, though, you also lose hundreds of thousands of hands.
Bankroll management is important. Frame of mind is important. If you're playing on a short roll that adds unnecessary pressure. If your frame of mind isn't right, you can tilt. You've won and lost many hands. You've had monsters crushed and sucked out horribly on others. Play the long game. If you tilt, work on that first and foremost. Ask yourself why you're playing cards if it tilts you. Nothing is worth tilt.
Also, it's okay to take a break from cards and do something else. Get some exercise. Play another game. Do something to rebuild your confidence. Read a silly book or something.
Hang in there.
Formerly KilgoreTrout
Maturity
Took me awhile
I don’t know everything about GTO, but I do know most people play too many hands.
There’s a lot of gamblers in the game, so you have to play strong hands. It’s probably not what you want to hear, and it’s certainly boring at times, but that is the only way.
Not perfect, but I’m pissed at myself if I call a 3bet from the button with A9o. You have to eliminate the what the heck hands. Far too often when you look at the coolers, you were in there with something you should have folded pre-flop.
If you folded 22 from early position, you wouldn’t have lost so much money set over set. Sure, sometimes you can’t help it like getting the money in on the turn with AA and someone says what the heck and calls with a draw that gets there. Beats happen
But start looking at how many marginal hands you played that turned into beats. GTO is just a guideline, and it often doesn’t apply well to live poker, because the players are weak and you can exploit them. Maybe overfold or underbluff, but the clues are there.
I know you think I don’t want to be a nit, but once they think you are, you can make moves. If you play like everyone else, you will lose like everyone else.
Found a post from elsewhere that might be helpful:
Play strong hands in position aggressively. Start there, fold the rest and watch the magic happen.
Next, find a target (usually wide openers to call down or tightwads you can force to fold) or two. Usually at least one in a game. Not really playing different, but knowing their weakness when you find yourself in there with them.
Finally, keep working on fundamentals. Hand reading has a lot to do with board texture and thinking in ranges is important. If you don’t have the patience to fold for hours rather than play the wrong cards for the situation, it will be tough.
And, if you don’t know which cards are appropriate for the situation, please don’t venture away from the first sentence in this post. That alone will put you in a position that’s hard to mess up post flop.
My adjustment in these situations is to try and aim for more nutted hands and any sets regardless of the board.
I once ran so bad I thought the doomswitch.jpeg guy was real.
Lots of good replies so far, so I'll approach the issue from a different angle.
GTO strategies are "equilibrium" strategies. If you are considering a call with a bluffcatcher on the river, and your opponent is betting with a GTO range, it doesn't matter what you do. Against a GTO range you are indifferent.
Against humans who are imbalanced in one way or another, you are not indifferent. They are often very clearly under (or over) bluffing.
Trying to emulate GTO is not the best way to win at poker. GTO is just a baseline strategy to understand so you can tell what your opponents are doing wrong. Then make a read and make the best play in the spot you're in.
If they're never bluffing, fold.
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Any update from the OP?
Is there an echo in here?