just enough odds to call all in
i was just in a situation where i had enough odds for a break even call.
Villain was short stack and 4bet shv after i 3bet AKs.
Basically pot odds dictated i need atleast 40% equity and against TT+ i had roughly 40%.
But just cause its break even should i always call? How about if i give villain all AK here which gives me 3% more equity? Would this make it a clear call? Does 3% make much of a difference?
I wanted to do an ev calculation where it measures the differences of stack after the decision. For instance a fold is net loss of how ever much i 3bet for. But i kind of forgotten how to do these calculations.
Would these calculation steer me toward any one desicion?
How exactly do you calculate this? What do you guys think about these breakeven calls?
I remember Miller opinion is that putting your stack in on a flip is bad poker. That its better to find better spots like having >80% on the turn to get the money in.
Another question is what is the strategic implication of making these calls? Im guessing cause its break even then you cant go wrong by taking the odds in the long run and you prevent villain from pushing you around?
4 Replies
I think this is a ‘read’ play.
I can fold AK to even light pressure in some situations.
Need to know more about the short stack
Some players are just ready to put it in with any playable hand.
If you want confirmation that folding AK to a 4Bet (assuming small stakes) then many here will agree.
On the bigger question of flips
It’s hard to disagree with Miller
Sometimes you get stuck with a flip, but it’s not something you should pursue.
Don’t think these situations happen enough for villain to get the idea he can push you around. It’s kinda hard for a short stack to push anyone around.
I’m not sure about the calculations, but I would be interested if someone does.
Each situation is different
If I open 15 and villain jams for 500 it’s an easy fold unless the player is a maniac.
If I 3bet 100 and villain jams 200 it’s probably a call vs most villains.
Bottom line: good folding is how we win at this game - I don’t care what the situation is or what the hand is, fold if you think you should. You don’t have to tell anyone.
i wasnt asking for affirmation. Its this break even call spots that gets me.
for instance i have AKs, flopped flush draw in position. I cbet and get jammed on. Stacks are short enough to just barely give me a break even call. Do I take always take these?
Some random ai like from google say that in tournament say that you should not always take these calls because you should be trying to preserve your tournament life or something like that.
i was going throught my notebook and found a formula from holdem mathology. i think its the one, not exaftly sure yet. i. gonna work through it later.
ev = eq(pot + 2(bet) - bet
im starting to think all ev eauations are the same.
Ive dont the same calling 100bb vs a tilted aggro fish with 100%rfi. its profitable. ive also got caught slipping where a player shoved a couple of times causing me to beleive dude is such a player and i get in there with a ragged ace to find the villain has AA. The spot has to be pristine.
I look at it more as taking various lines in situations and kinda do the pot odds, implied odds unconsciously. I don’t ever make a break even call or think I’m priced in.
If I think I’m ahead, I’m coming for you - otherwise, I’m getting out of the way. Your AK example depends entirely on stack sizes and bet sizes. A flush draw only completes 35%
People that chase straights and flushes arrive in planes and leave on buses.
Making bad folds, hurts less than making bad calls. I’m not sure exactly what you’re asking, but player reads are everything in close decisions. I’m never calling because the solver says I should, because I have better info.
After at most, two orbits, I know my villains. I’m looking for good situations to play against them. I don’t mind folding flips, I want an advantage. When I can outplay most of the players at the table, it doesn’t make sense to let them flip with me.
Disagree with tournament advice, I think you take more chances. The difference is that I would be shoving AK (with fe) before villain had a chance.
Even with favorable odds, if you don’t know where you are or what to do, I think folding is a better option than other choices.
Break-even in chips is not the same as break-even in tournament equity. ICM taxes you harder for busting than it rewards you for doubling, so a neutral chip spot is usually a slight fold unless you are both very shallow or the blinds make folding too costly. That said, adding AK to his range does matter. Going from 40% to 43% flips this from a marginal fold to a marginal call, and 3% across enough volume is real money.
