Coming back after 20yrs
Wow have things changed! Started studying and using a HUD. Playing 10NL
I haven't gone deep into my stats yet, but I am continuously making the same mistake. Not recognizing when I'm probably beaten and going aggressively into the showdown and losing. Below is a common example. Villain saw flop after flop and we both obviously (now) flopped made hands... Any advice on how to recognize and believe the villains?
NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
HJ (116.6BBs) [VPIP: 35.7% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 43.4% | Flop Agg: 40.6% | Turn Agg: 46.2% | River Agg: 80% | 3Bet: 2.4% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 98]
HERO (104.2BBs) [VPIP: 17.1% | PFR: 11.2% | AGG: 43.9% | Flop Agg: 47.9% | Turn Agg: 47.9% | River Agg: 34.3% | 3Bet: 4.8% | Fold to 3Bet: 30.6% | 4Bet: 4.9% | Hands: 3961]
BTN (107.2BBs) [VPIP: 11.8% | PFR: 9.6% | AGG: 23.8% | Hands: 137]
SB (196.9BBs) [VPIP: 16.9% | PFR: 10.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 59]
BB (350.8BBs) [VPIP: 44.9% | PFR: 7.5% | AGG: 19% | Hands: 257]
UTG (133BBs) [VPIP: 32.8% | PFR: 11.2% | AGG: 25.7% | Flop Agg: 28.6% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 31.3% | 3Bet: 6.8% | 4Bet: 50% | Hands: 127]
UTG (110.6BBs) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 12.9% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 32]
MP (124.9BBs) [VPIP: 14.1% | PFR: 10.5% | AGG: 27.8% | Hands: 613]
Dealt to Hero: Q♣ K♣
UTG Calls 1BBs, UTG Folds, MP Folds, HJ Raises To 2BBs, HERO Raises To 4BBs, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls 3BBs, HJ Calls 2BBs
Hero SPR on Flop: [7.42 effective]
Flop (13.5BBs): J♣ 9♣ 6♣
UTG Checks, HJ Bets 6.7BBs (Rem. Stack: 105.9BBs), HERO Calls 6.7BBs (Rem. Stack: 93.5BBs), UTG Folds
Turn (26.9BBs): J♣ 9♣ 6♣ 3♠
HJ Bets 13.4BBs (Rem. Stack: 92.5BBs), HERO Raises To 65.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 27.7BBs), HJ Raises To 105.9BBs (allin), HERO Calls 27.7BBs (allin)
River (226.3BBs): J♣ 9♣ 6♣ 3♠ 9♦
Spoiler
HJ shows: T♣ A♣
HJ wins: 203.3BBs
2 Replies
You want the smartass answer? Next time have the nuts instead of the second nuts. The real answer? It’s a cooler; if you make a habit of folding the second nuts, especially to relatively small bets, you will get crushed.
In this case, about the only critiques I can find are your three bet size preflop (which usually should be about 3x the open size, and probably even a bit larger with the limper - something more like 9-10BB) and your turn raise size (a bit smaller would be better. If you did have a hand that would raise/fold in that spot, your sizing didn’t allow you to take that line - you are basically calling around 30bb in a 130bb pot. You only need a bit under 19% equity to call.
I’m not sure where you think you could find a fold. He called your PF 3 bet, so obviously no fold pre. He cbet half pot. He has plenty of combos (Ac X, JJ, 99, 66 for instance) that are cbetting here. You can’t fold second nuts to a half pot bet. On the turn he bets half pot again; same logic. You raise and he shoves the rest. Again you only need to be good 19% of the time. Easy call with second nuts.
Finally, HUDs are useful and all, but don’t put too much stock in villains stats when you have small samples. You had less than 100 hands; that’s nothing. Use them as a tiebreaker when the decision is close. That was not the case here. Your decisions were easy.
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Thank you so much for both the smartass and real answers! Hoowee, I have a lot to learn:-)
Thanks also for the bet sizing advice!
