winners and winrates
Does anyone know how many (percentage of) live poker players are winners. And also what are the winrates of those players. I was a long time online winner who has just recently switched to live (damn bots and collusion). My Live results aren't so great. I play 1-2 and 1-3 nlhe(my local casino just recently changed its lowest stakes game). I'm averaging $4.16 over 419 hours. $8.28 an hour if you calculate the promo funds.
8 Replies
General accepted number is 10%. Varies from 5-20% but over YEARS, the top 10% are really winning. Live rake at low limits is pretty bad. If you can handle 2/5 or 5/5 get into it. Makes the win rate go up. Live 1/2 is a rake trap the way micros is online.
2BBs an hour is still a winning player but you are probably losing 10bbs to rake PER HOUR, that's a low-side estimate.
In my local casino it’s 10% up to 6 plus two dollars for promo fund and normally a one dollar tip. Sometimes I tip $2 dollars for the big pots.
So in a $60 dollar pot I’m losing $9 to rake. Which I always thought was a lot but didn’t think I was losing 10bbs an hour. 10bbs an hour seems huge!
There are several reasons why I don’t play in the 2-5 game. Skill level, bankroll issues, playing with scared money, and the player pool seems to be aggressive and splashy. I normally don’t do well in those types of games. Any thoughts?
The rake ain’t going away
Beating the rake online might be tough, but it’s a non-factor at 1/3 where I play.
Most of the time, it’s like playing 3/6 with a straddle involved and very often it can be like 10/20 or above. I mean an average open is 5bbs.
I know many pros that will tell you they make more playing 1/3 than 2/5.
And then we have the drunk lawyer opening every hand for $30 - the rush to play 2/5 is outdated advice.
In my opinion ( I have zero data to back any of my claim), 10% of poker players are winning after rake. 1-4% are winning a substantial sum of money.
Just like in any industry or competitive endeavor around the whole world, it’s the top 0.01% who make it. Think professional sport athletes, restaurant chains, auto manufacturers, websites, etc. There are 1000 failed products/people/businesses, for every 1 success.
In my opinion ( I have zero data to back any of my claim), 10% of poker players are winning after rake. 1-4% are winning a substantial sum of money. Just like in any industry or competitive endeavor around the whole world, it's the top 0.01% who make it. Think professional sport athletes, restaurant chains, auto manufacturers, websites, etc. There are 1000 failed products/peopl
There is a great MDA breakdown of winrates by stake and BB. Its I nice watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIZMFACj...
419 hours at 1-2 is a real sample and the transition from online is a bigger adjustment than most people expect. Most estimates I've seen put long-term live winners at 20-30% of regulars at those stakes, and $4/hr puts you ahead of the majority of people sitting in that game. The rake structure at low-stakes live is brutal compared to online, so clearing any positive winrate is harder than the raw number suggests.
95 % are loosing boys.. just good clients
4.x are equal to zero...
And the rest got luck😉
