Futur game EV

Futur game EV

Hello guys,

I struggle finding serious informations about this subject.

We're playing a lot of recreationnal players in spin and go.
Some calls vs all in or open jams can be marginal (like winning 0.01bb) but we've got EV and edge to play futur hands and must care about this factor.

Calling any +EV spots is a mistake vs recreationnal in my opinion.
I wonder how do you factor your edge (in bb/100, ROI or ITM%) into your decisions when facing all in for example?

Any software/calculation/method to take your edge into account in your decisions?

08 May 2024 at 09:13 AM
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7 Replies


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You have to be from teambaspoker posse lol. Yeah keep folding that tp for future ev rofl. Gonna get you far.

There is no serious information because future ev is not a thing lol. Yeah you can skip some marginal spots but lol.


I mean there is no quarantee for future ev mate. Just play your hands take the best spots and forget about sheet like future ev lol. Don't waste your time on useless sheet like roi for future ev lol.


tipton provides some maths behind maximsing winrate in vol 2 of his book

Nothing as extreme as some people recommend though.


I created a similar thread here a few years ago, featuring both the future EV and an edge. An extreme example: nit shoves and we have a little +EV hand to call. At the same time, opp will heavily overfold vs our shoves. It seems like these concepts shouldn't be ignored, but I'm not sure and I'm still playing by the standard.


I did the math on this in my spins and hu guide vid packs from 2021, it's called win-rate maximization. It's pretty weak effect generally only affecting effective EV by 1% or less often--but occasionally it's bigger when you have high edge. Calls vs all-ins are affected more than open-jams. It's mostly whatever but yeah in the example you cite you should fold to the open shove if you believe calling is .01bb > folding for sure.


There's mental impact too. Sometimes it doesn't feel good folding a small +EV spot ands then going on to loose.


by ggwpnore

I created a similar thread here a few years ago, featuring both the future EV and an edge. An extreme example: nit shoves and we have a little +EV hand to call. At the same time, opp will heavily overfold vs our shoves. It seems like these concepts shouldn't be ignored, but I'm not sure and I'm still playing by the standard.

I just started playing this format yesterday and played close to 700 1$ Spin&Gold on gg poker up to now.

Depending on your opponents of course there is a future EV to talk and think about. I met a lot of players who call way to tight even when you sometimes are playing effective in the region of 4-7 BB. If I already have this read about a player I will fold a lot more against shoves especially if stacks are somewhat close.

There is much EV in shoving wider against those players if they only show up with PP,Ax and Broadway, therefore I will skip marginal calling spots.

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