***Official H&F LC Thread***

This is frankly an insult to the US. We run the world. We're not some backwater Latin American favela colony. Argentina has way, way different problems than we do.

Not hating Millei but we shouldn't be following their example.

I won't go digging up data because it's a waste of time and always has been. You and Muny have been chart slapfighting for two pages and has it lead to any enlightenment?

Bezos had this great insight a few months back on the Lex pod (I hate Lex btw but the sound bite was great): "when the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right." It's basically a respinning of the "lies, damn lies, and statistics". I don't need CPI graphs when rents and real estate prices ballooned, grocery bills grew 40-50%, my plain cotton t-shirts jumped 30%, etc etc. People spend money every day, pay weekly and monthly bills, and they all went up considerably. So please, spare me this caterwauling for more data. Enough with the data.

Feel free to hit me with "well CPI says you're overstating groceries only rose 15%" bitch my OJ went from $6/hgal to $9/hgal, my eggs $8/18 to $13/18, my milk from $4.50/hgal to $6.50/hgal. "Those are expensive items kc just buy the cheaper stuff those items were more impacted" no gfy why were they smd. And it's not just me listen to EVERYBODY.

I do not care if the rate of inflation has flattened. In the past 18 months or whatever. Inflation is a permanent haircut. The strength of my salary is reduced, possibly forever.

I do not care if official crime stats are dipping in the past year after a huge spike since summer of Floyd. Stuff is still locked up at CVS. General air of antisocial behavior everywhere you go.

Thankfully, Boston is much better off than most metros in this regard, but I have friends all over. Things aren't better now than they were 4 years ago.

Not well educated. I generally support a Hindu nationalist ideal for India, but my wife, who is a big Trump fan (and has been since day 1), oddly really hates Modi. Something to do with corruption and insider dealings. A big difference between MAGA and BJP is BJP is a highly organized political organization down to the local level, and their tactics are often heavy handed. Maybe that has something to do with it.

India mostly just a big mess don't expect much of it.

I don't know which of these things you think I'm disputing, because it's close to none of them, with respect to inflation. Here's my take on inflation.

1. There was a lot of inflation (it seems we agree).
2. The rate of inflation is going down (it seems we agree)

Here are some other things I think (some of which I posted, but you may have missed).

3. I don't think Biden is largely responsible for inflation in the last 4 yrs. There are all sorts of global supply chain issues which played a huge role. As a result there was inflation all over the planet. Inflation in Europe, inflation in Asia. US did better than a lots of other developed countries wrt inflation (to be fair, I don't think we can give Biden much credit for that either).

4. Actually thinking Trump will cause deflation is unlikely because, like Biden, Presidents have little control over it and deflation is uncommon without the economy otherwise tanking. Nearly all periods of economic prosperity are accompanied by some low level of inflation. I think that there is a great chance in four years we might have low inflation inflation in line with historic averages and Trump slappies will claim victory, suddenly forgetting that they were crying for deflation.

Well, I guess that's where we differ. I actually care about facts. Sorry to disappoint you

It's funny how you and Rich Muny have this same perspective: "Where I live is not bad with respect to crime. Man, but everywhere else, it really sucks." This is where things like stats really help.

I'd be interested in your thoughts on "support of Hindu nationalist idea" for India. Interpreted uncharitably, it would imply that you're super cool with discriminating against Muslims. Unlike Trump, Modi doesn't even try to hide that ****.

Pro-Trump but anti-Modi is quite a unicorn. Would not have expected that.

I wasn't talking about the bill, dude. You said that Biden finally started cracking down in the last year or something to that effect. The question very simple. Is that better than doing nothing at that point or not.

Love it. The dude who was found liable for sexual abuse is not sexist. Really! A+. No notes.

No, I didn't. I did not say anything "proves sexism". Go back and read it, if you are capable. If you would like, you can quote it and I can use really small words to explain why I didn't say what you think I said.

I assumed sexism exists and said that worked against Kamala. Actually if you wanted proof of sexism, mindflayer provided a pretty good link on that.

Just skimmed the rest of your post and saw you provided a source for something, finally. Well done! I've got to run now, but I will respond to that part later this evening (and I'll even read it). Cross my heart and hope to die.

No, you don't care about "facts", stop fooling yourself. Almost nobody does. You care about "data", and properly selected data. Crime data itself is fairly unreliable outside of murder for a myriad of reasons (no one in SF bothers to report car break-ins anymore, eg).

It's also pretty foolish to assume a populace will ignore 3 bad years because things are getting back near baseline in an election year.

I'm fairly OK with a Hindu nation ruling as one is all I'm saying. It's fairly illustrative you made no mention of concerns for Indian Christians or Sikhs.

Well said Kidcolin.

Wow, Kidcolin now leaning the win to the "right" side.

Where are thou Soulman? In his safe place in the great white north, thinking about his next 3 star michelin meal. Ah, the good life.

/Grunch

Glad I took a break when all this politarding happening.

Suck it shitlibs and their allegedly centrist apologists (Montecoco). Natinal ID cards. Population registry. And umm... Housing first? Maybe sprinkle in some actual healthcare reform? Stop policing the world and providing free drug development for Euro****s?

Scrolled through everything. Didn't read the Muny/Melk lolz. Don't have the self-loathing for that today but I did snippet some best hits:

I can't believe this after your prior pro athlete arc! These are great jerbs. Even the military is ****ing amazing in America if you're a loser.

This isn't true at all. Switzerland has amazingly high gun ownership rates, which are wildly low in reported stats since black market guns aren't considered nor are guns held for "public uses". But go off and pretend it isn't poor brown people popping off. Malmo is great I hear.

Abortions are great.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Europe is a cesspool of disinformation. More people in Sweden voted for a party founded by a Nazi by a 2:1 margin which is "in government" (confidence and supply) than said they would vote for Trump.

Eurotards are completely ****ing deluded about America.

Best part of the Cumala campaign is you could never attack her policies since she never had any. She was a bag carrier for her entire career minus her senate time when she was one of the most liberal elected officials in America. But now makes weird statements saying "k will be more normie but can't say what that is"

yes pls

This seems p normie.

I do find it mildly amusing that two of the more prominent people of color who live abroad get this weird white man talking down vibe on politics like we're dumb ****ing townies who never got out. Which I actually think is vastly more representative of the white folks who never actually traveled. Soulbro lives in an insular semi-******ed Nordic bubble. Yugo is... well Yugo. We're all grown men and have come to value certain things above others, but I don't think anyone on this forum is deeply evil or maleficent. I may think someone is misguided in their approach to solving a problem (generational crime/poverty in AA communities in America for example), but I don't think anyone wants bad things to happen to anyone. Maybe something to keep in mind when we go through this discourse. While it is fun to neckbeard and die on a bullshit statistical hill, at the end of the day I don't think some Israeli weirdo shooting a 15y old with an RPG is great. While we can debate the justification of both sides, maybe we should step back and consider a world where a 15y old isn't taking up arms, and someone doesn't need to shoot him the face so they (or someone else) doesn't die.

But lol Cumala. She gave some head to get ahead. But apparently not enough.

I don’t really understand your comment about my plumbing post but my pov was in the context of someone who is of average intelligence and would be otherwise going into debt to get a meh degree from a meh institution. Getting a trade is just a better option here for many of those people for availability of work, average income, opportunity to have their own business. Having just spent a lot of time sourcing and managing trades as I renovated my house, I found it very tough to find even semi decent tradespeople.

Plumbers in Aus at least are the best paid standard tradespeople by quite some margin and there appears to be almost limitless opportunities for them. My friend’s son is earning over $100k in his first full year after completing his apprenticeship and he was making $60k per year even during his apprenticeship.

I certainly wouldn’t want to do it or be a builder or electrician etc etc but I would be happy if my son decided to get a trade if his high school trajectory continues

I am a normie.

NotThremPOC haha good one

I think he’s emerging from a sauna to have a threesome with two nubile, multilingual blondes

Trades make a **** ton of money in first world countries and I think it is an excellent career. I spent a long time counseling Guy to bail on his higher education ambitions and don't think there is anything wrong with never going to college and learning a trade.

I do think pursuing professional sports as a profession is a terrible "career", especially considering that is similar to any other entertainment career where its boom/bust, but you can literally learn to make cabinets and have an upper middle class life.

Wait. Are POCs only people with poopoo colored skin? Are you suggesting a brown paper bag test for POCs? (Much like the blacks did.)

I thought we were all anti-white people. Intersectionalism and stuff.

The sauna thing is deeply troubling. I have quite a few feelings on the subject.

However, I've been happily married for years now. So no more threesomes. Tho Mrs NotThremp speaks 2 languages fluently and one more kinda low key shitty. Not blonde tho.

Not unless you're a flip or Lao or something. Sorry.

NotThremPOC,

I appreciate your concern, but I've finally made peace with KC bullying me for being a libcuck; I think he appreciates that I squat down six inches when reading his posts to really get on his level, so there's give and take on both sides.

I mean... is it? I'd say no. I think this is a common misconception of keynesian propaganda taught in schools. Deflation is the very natural path of increases in productivity due to technological growth. If the cost of production keeps falling, so will prices... But it increases the value of debt, so governments want you to think its some kind of disaster, but it'd actually heavily disincentivize out of control deficit spending by both parties if we lived in a more deflationary environment.

Jeff Booth The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future was a great and short read just over 100pgs.

Melk argues that current and future inflation are bad, but prior price increases must be protected at all costs. The left's border security plan seems similar, where they claim to support a strong border to stop people from crossing illegally, while also opposing deporting those who made it in.

Okay so when you say POC please stop insulting people like myself and just say "**** skin".

Thanks!

I think you have a decent amount of white guilt and are semi-lib cuck, but perhaps can be salvaged.

Then again I'm big into a bunch of shitlib ideologies like housing first, nationalized healthcare, etc. Perhaps if we viewed these as "Are these good for poor people without being super bad for rich people?" maybe we'd be better off.

So I actually have a degree in this! In a Keynesian system if supply or velocity falls enough, then you functionally have reduced money supply. So yeah....

One point to note is that if inflation is due to "supply chain issues" those should be transient.

But we all know how that works.

He's a ****ing child on this subject. Why bother?

Ultimately I think a lot of people are really concerned about poverty and inequality on the "right", but we just disagree with people on the left about the best way to address it. "Teach a man to fish vs take a fish from somebody else who has a lot and give it to him".

The largest city I've ever lived in is ~425k people. We can quibble on whether this is an urban or rural divide, but in reality its both. There are differing ways of life.

I've advised some RE development projects (I do this professionally) that focus on newfag ideologies. My biggest issue is just hating everyone who espouses these things due to deep hypocrisy. If you wanna have 8 kids, k; but don't sweat me on carbon footprint when you fly your soccer team around the the plant "to see the family" every year.

I actually really do. Not fooling myself. I've been Melking around here for over a decade on every topic under the sun.

That's a different issue. What I'm talking about is people not even knowing that things are getting better now.

Nah, it's illustrative that you don't know what you're talking about. But you implied that was the case from the outset, so I like the self awareness.

The reason I mentioned Muslims is because Modi has a huge hard on for facking Muslims specifically. I'm also pretty sure you would know this. The most egregious example is the recent Citizenship Amendment Bill. It was basically for a kind of amnesty pathway to get Indian citizenship as long as you are not a member of one religious group. Wanna guess which one:

Source:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-50670393

bbc

CAA: India's new citizenship law explained

There is also other shiet targeting Muslim specifically which I can dig you up some info on, if you are interested. Modi is just not going after those other religious groups in the same way.

Having said that, I do think that it would be bad for all of those other religious groups as well.

I'm very opposed any nation ruling based on any religion. Please don't tell me you would be cool with the US becoming some sort of Christian Nationalist state.

I think that in real terms, prices of certain things will fall due to technology/productivity as you say. In nominal terms, the price will often still be higher.

Has there been a period of time (lets say a few years, not month to month stuff) in the US in your lifetime where there had been significant economic growth coupled with deflation?

You think CPI will go down during Trump?

FFS man, how bad at reading are you. I, of course, like everything you try to paraphrase said nothing of the sort. I said execessive inflation is bad. I also said that a small amount of inflation generally accompanies periods of prosperity.

If you can get deflation and economic growth concurrently, that would be awesome. Seems unlikely. What's Orange Man's plan for that by the way, seeing as how have a real need to see Biden/Harris plans on a variety of things.

When you say a "Biden/harris" plan, what do you actually mean, since that is a nonsense statement.

Yeah, I'll just go ahead and take the W now for this entire discussion. Thanks for playing though.