Russian Invasion of Ukraine
More purges in Russia for being too patriotic:
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Video of fighting in Chasiv Yar
2. Drone strikes on tanks, including barn tanks
3. Russian ATGMs
4. Russian tanks using roof screens and logs
5. Russian creating an improvised munition
6. FPVs strike Russian artillery and vehicles
7. HIMARS narrowly misses Ukrainian UAV and hits a radar
8. Russian tank hit by FPV but survives
9. Tank firing at close range
10. Bradley shoots down drone
11. Ukrainian ATGM (fired from the back of a pickup) hits tank
12. Amputee piloting drone
13. Russian on scooter with shotgun to shoot down drones
14. Demining
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Foreign Minister of Poland suggesting Ukraine should be allowed to hit the airfields which launched the air strike on the children's hospital
2. Biden rejects the idea
3. Bloomberg article "Starmer Says Ukraine Can Use UK Missiles to Strike in Russia" (I believe USA rejected this as well)
4. Zelenskyy on securing air defense and potentially more F-16s
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Likely another rotation issue leads to Russian gains in Donetsk
2. GREAT READ Kofman's overview of the current state of the war
3. Rob Lee on the impact of F-16s which are likely arriving soon
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT AND LOSSES
1. Economist article "How many Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine?"
2. Ukraine's 24th Mechanized is forming a convict brigade
3. Kyiv Independent article "Hundreds want to join new Ukrainian legion in Poland, Polish media reports"
4. ft article "Ukraine bolsters its army ranks with convicts"
5. Rob Lee on recruitment efforts of both sides
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES
1. NYT article on Ukraine executing POWs
2. Video of Russians executing POWs
3. Russian precision guided missile striking children's hospital
4. Mark Hamill fundraiser for the children's hospital
5. Twitter censors article on the missile strike
Spoiler
RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Video of Kyiv after several missiles strike
2. Zelenskyy on the casualties
3. BBC article "'We've learnt to do surgery without electricity': Ukraine's power cuts worsen"
4. Scene from Russia's strike against the Ukrainian children's hospital
5. Report from Kyiv
6. Report from Kyiv
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Burning oil depot
2. Ukraine strikes oil depot in Krasnodar
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Russian article on Russian inflation and overall economy (no idea if this is accurate)
2. NATO senior official claims Russia can sustain war economy for 3-4 years
Spoiler
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS
1. ft article "Russia believed to be behind plot to assassinate European defence boss"
2. Mark Galeotti on Russia's attempt to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO
Spoiler
PROPAGANDA
1. DOJ seizes two domains and inspects suspected Russian bots
Spoiler
NATO
1. The dangers of the current USA attitudes towards NATO
Spoiler
1. Russian state TV on the debates
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Night strike on an S300
2. GRAPHIC Insane attempt to get down a road
3. Russian cluster munitions
4. Another
5. Russian motorcycle batallion
MILITARY AID
1. Supplemental reduces Russia's artillery advantage from 7:1 to 3:1
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. 788 Ukrainian soldiers missing from Krynky (they recently pulled out)
2. Perpetua's take on the losses at Krynky
3. Group in Chasiv Yar surrounded for 70 days before being relieved; supplied by drones
Spoiler
PEACE TALKS
1. 44% of Ukrainians believe it's time for negotiations with Russia (highest yet)
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. Meduza article "Over the year, payments to Russian military personnel and their relatives amounted to an amount equivalent to 1.5% of GDP"
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS
1. Russian assault including a motorcycle charge at 2:35
2. Attempting to hit drone with shotgun from back of a truck
3. Aerial view of Bradley firing
4. Clip of the motorcycle charge only
5. Russian publication on trench warfare
6. Bradley drops off troops while providing cover
7. TOS explosion at night (I think)
8. Glide bombs strike
9. Smoke screens used on motorcycles
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. Ukraine claims 3.5x more volunteers for recruitment
2. GOOD READ 4 million Ukrainians who should have signed up did not
3. Rand article "Russian Military Wartime Personnel Recruiting and Retention 2022–2023"
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Drone strike on Russian airfield
Spoiler
MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. GOOD READ Economist article "Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out" and thread from the author
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. GREAT READ RUSI "Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23"
2. Excerpt on Bakhmut
2. "‘I HAVE SEEN HELL, AND THE NAME OF IT IS “KRYNKY” — FIGHTERS WHO HELD THE VILLAGE ON THE LEFT BANK AND DISAPPEARED THERE"
4. Russia achieving breakthrough in Donetsk
Spoiler
PEACE TALKS
1. Zelenskyy on current trajectory of the war and peace talks
2. Zelenskyy on Putin's current goals
Spoiler
1. Evan Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years
Spoiler
Politico article "Hungary facing fuel crisis as Ukraine turns up heat on Russian oil supplies"
GREAT READ Front Intelligence Insight article "Summer 2024 Frontline Dynamics: Overview, Key Issues, and Projections" Great overview of all key aspects of the war
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/su...
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Drone rams another drone with a stick
2. GRAPHIC Drones attacking boats on a river
3. Bradley shrugs off drone hit
4. Drone training
5. HIMARS strike on Russian air defence
6. GRAPHIC Trench warfare
7. Remote operating a machine gun with a Steam Deck
8. SU-25 hit by MANPAD (I think)
9. GRAPHIC GREAT WATCH Infantry attacked by drone (really captures what it's like to know there's a drone in the area)
RECRUITMENT
1. Kyiv Independent article "Russia will be forced to scale down its attacks in a month and a half, Ukrainian commander says" (seems unlikely to me that it will occur this soon)
Spoiler
ORBAN
1. Hungary threatens to block EU aid to Ukraine over oil pipeline
2. Orban gets a billion dollar loan from Chinese banks instead of EU
Spoiler
PEACE TALKS
1. Reuters article "Poll says 32% of Ukrainians open to territorial concessions for quick peace"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pol...
MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. GREAT READ "Years of miscalculations by U.S., NATO led to dire shell shortage in Ukraine"
2. Rhenmetall constructing 155mm factory in Ukraine
3. RFERL article "EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises"
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
1. Russia relocating assets further from front lines
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russian boat attempting resupply
2. Drone hits Russian boat at night
3. Drone attacking another river crossing
4. Drones attacking Russian assault
5. Bradley 25mm cannon, 47th armored
6. Drone hunts down soldiers in a building
7. Turtle tank hits mine
PEACE TALKS
1. Anders Puck Nielson "Ukraine and Russia are still far from real negotiations"
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Telegraph article "F-16 fighter jets finally fly in Ukraine in major boost for Kyiv"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
RECRUITMENT
1. NYT article "Ukraine Is Conscripting Thousands More Troops. But Are They Ready?" Large numbers of recruits will arrive at the front in the coming weeks, soldiers and military analysts said, but some are poorly trained or out of shape.
2. Russian soldier complaining about disparity in wages as Russia increases salaries once again in order to entice new recruits
3. Russian propagandist complaining that losses are too high to continue advancing in Donetsk
4. Putin signs decree to increase signing bonus
MAJOR BATTLEFRONT
1. GREAT READ The Times reporter embedded with 47th discussing the Russian breakthrough at Pokrovsk
2. GREAT WATCH Interview of several marines who were at Krynky
3. Interview with soldiers who defended Vochansk
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES
1. GRAPHIC Russians post video executing POWs
WAGNER
1. In depth look at the ambush in Mali where 50 Wagnerites were killed (a major millblogger, Grey Zone, is rumored to have been killed as well)
Spoiler
"The aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad is said to be at serious risk of failure due to possible corruption at Russia's United Engine Corporation. This has come to light after the crash of a Tu-160M strategic bomber on which Vladimir Putin flew in February 2024."
Spoiler
The Moscow Times article "Russia May Free 20-30 Political Prisoners in Historic Exchange With West"
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Ukrainian guided bombs level building
2. SU-24 dropping Storm Shadow
3. GRAPHIC Drone attacking boat on river
4. Urban combat in Toretsk
5. Bradley hit by ATGM, crew flees
6. GRAPHIC Aftermath of motorcycle attack
7. Artillery attempting to hit MRAAP evacuation
8. Drones vs motorcycles and ATVs
9. BMP and infantry attack trench near Chasiv Yar
10. Improvised munition dropped from vampire drone
11. Drone retrieves a drone
12. Russian assault
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. DW article "Russia's war in Ukraine: Forcing deserters to the front line"
"Every one of them, in one way or another, had practically been forced to sign up. There are fewer and fewer mobilized service members in active duty because so many have died already," the human rights activist told DW. "They all want to flee because they only see two options: either get killed or get dragged to court."
2. GOOD READ Look at the recent doubling of salary bonus for Russian recruits and the salaries overall
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Official announcement that F-16s are in Ukraine
2. Zelenskyy addresses air force
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Map showing Russia's recent gains on the major battlefronts
2. Analysis of land taken compared to counteroffensive
Spoiler
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
1. Explosion after Ukraine hits Russian air base with drone
2. Satellite analysis of the strike
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Moscow Times "Trillion Down the Pipe. Gazprom's Gas Business Losses Exceed 2.5 Billion Rubles a Day"
PRISONER EXCHANGE
1. Children of Russian spies were not aware they were Russian until flying in Russia
2. GOOD READ WSJ article "Inside the Secret Negotiations to Free Evan Gershkovich"
3. Galeotti on prisoners released calling for easing of sanctions
4. Galeotti on how Russian press is covering one of the Russians released
GOOD READ Mark Galeotti and BBC on Russians campaign against critics outside of Russia
Spoiler
KURSK
1. Early footage of Kursk invasion
2. Map of Kursk region with a few important events
3. Map showing where Ukraine has struck some important locations prior to the invasion
4. Kadyrov's TikTok army attempts at saving face as they retreat
5. Russian speculation on the EW used to when the invasion started
6. Russian propagandist likely killed in a drone strike during the invasion
7. Footage of Russian POWs
8. Pic of 40 POWs
9. Putin addresses the issue
Spoiler
KURSK ANALYSIS
1. Analysis from yesterday on what was happening around Sudzha
2. NYT article "Ukraine Launches Rare Cross-Border Ground Assault Into Russia" with early analysis
3. ISW analysis
4. OSINT analysis
5. My pick for best two analysis yesterday
6. My pick for best two analysis yesterday
7. Probably the best analysis today
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. General overview of the major battlefronts
2. Economist article "Russia’s bloody summer offensive is hurting Ukraine" discusses Ukraines manpower problems
3. Russian flag raised in Niu York
Spoiler
1. Russian military purge continues
2. More
Spoiler
KURSK
1. Missiles destroyed Russian column on the...
2. Analysis of what was hit, as well as Rus...
3. Reliable source claims another column al...
5. Power outage due to large fire
7. Russian propaganda claims about the offe...
8. Russia has claimed victory against the o...
9. Fighterbomber show pic of Russian losses...
10. Russian news showing incoming reinforcem...
11. Russian forced to apologized for claimin...
12. Pic of Ukrainian 30km from Kursk
13. Claimed results from striking air field ...
15. Ukraine requesting to be allowed to stri...
KURSK ANALYSIS
1. [B]GREAT READ[/B] on Kursk so far, and p...
2. Map of areas Ukraine allegedly controls
3. Mark Galeotti writing for The Spectator:...
4. Two minute overview from BBC Russia
5. [B]GREAT READ[/B] Forbes article: Ukrain...
6. WaPo article: Ukraine, powered by Western arms, stuns Russia in cross-border assault (I thought they had more than enough to reinforce the area.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/202...
7. The Economist article "Ukraine surprises...
8. Russia declares a "Counter terrorism ope...
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Drone strikes in Chasiv Yar
2. Russian begins dumping bodies out of a t...
3. Several drone vs drone hits
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. HIMARS hit Russian training area in Zapo...
2. Footage of the airfield struck on August...
RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Russia hits supermarket in Donetsk
MILITARY AID
1. The War Zone video on what F16s and what they are believed to be equipped with
Spoiler
KURSK
Russian reporter complaining about Ukrai...
Russian acknowledging that Sudzha is und...
Russian refugees claiming Ukrainians are...
Russian helicopter flying very low over ...
Kommersant on Russians angry over Kursk ...
Ukrainian IFV driving around Sudzha
KURSK ANALYSIS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Analysis of the first ...
Kommersant map showing FPV and artillery...
Economist article on the attack, claimin...
Tatarigami on reinforcements and what a ...
ft article "Russian reinforcements fail ...
Zelenskyy on the Zaporzhizhia power plant being on fire
Zelenskyy on the Zaporzhizhia power plan...
IAEA reports no impacts on the power pla...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Russia continues making gains in Donetsk
Ukraine claiming Russia has moved units ...
RUSSIA STRIKE CAPAIGN
North Korean Ballistic missile hits resi...
MILIARY AID
Zelenskyy hoping to use foreign long ran...
WAR CRIMES
BATTLE CLIPS
[B]GREAT WATCH GRAPHIC[/B] 13 minute cli...
Video of FPV strike from inside of Ukrai...
KURSK
Putin interrupts Kursk governor from tal...
ft article "How Ukraine pulled off its b...
KURSK ANALYSIS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Mick Ryan, retired gen...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] In depth look at Russi...
New claims of where Ukraine controls
MILITARY AID
Germany says how its aid is used is up t...
Lindsey Graham suggesting retired F16s p...
Pro-Ukraine Republicans are plotting to ...
RECRUITMENT
Tatarigami on Russian recruitment
Mediazona on AWOL cases in Russia
Conservative estimate on Russian KIA
BATTLE CLIPS
[B]GRAPHIC[/B] Russian vehicle unloads t...
Russian assault near Kharkiv repelled
Ukrainian airstrike in Kursk region
KURSK
[B]GOOD READ[/B] Analysis of last few da...
Russian propaganda narratives on the offensive and how Russia is handling it
Spoiler
View that the Kremlin losing prestige ov...
ft article "Ukrainian forces seek to hol...
Lithuanian Defense Minister tells Ukrain...
Ukrainian's view on the 8 Ukrainian BTRs...
Visually confirmed losses in Kursk offen...
Rob Lee says due to the fact that Ukrain...
RECRUITMENT
Bloomberg article "Russian Troop Shortag...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Bloomberg article "Russian Banks Scrambl...
NORDSTREAM
BATTLE CLIPS
KURSK
Zelenskyy on progress in Kursk
Zelenskyy and Syrski: 82 settlements tak...
Meduza article "‘The special milit...
Thread on use of conscripts in Kursk
Icarus Project video "Why Russian Soldiers Keep Surrendering to Ukraine"
Spoiler
Russian 810th Naval Infantry ambushes Uk...
Map of railways in Kursk and their impor...
Map and geolocations showing Russia buil...
Ukraine reports its largest strike on ai...
Ukrainians distributing aid to Russians ...
MILITARY AID
F16s to be equipped with cruise missiles
Politico article on sending sending the ...
NORDSTREAM
WSJ article "A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage"
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-st...
BATTLE CLIPS
First person footage of a Ukrainian defe...
Ukrainians ambush trucks in Kursk
Russia appears to have diverted several ...
Ukrainian column that was ambushed yeste...
Video of bridge being destroyed
Video showing the KA-52 that was downed ...
Russian MOD claims this is an Iskander s...
KURSK
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Political implications...
Russian report on Ukrainian advances wes...
ft article "Ukraine and Russia begin tal...
Meanwhile on Russian TV: "We need to pre...
Advertisements to help build trenches in...
Another video of Ukrainians giving aid t...
ISW on Ukraine destroying two bridges in...
Russia complaining about Italian journal...
The head of the prison, who spoke on the...
WaPo article "Ukraine’s offensive ...
MAJOR BATTLE FRONTS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] WSJ article "As Ukrain...
Kyiv Independent article "Pokrovsk resid...
RECRUITMENT
Economist article "Ukraine’s convi...
MILITARY AID
By the end of the year, Germany plans to...
NORDSTREAM
BATTLE CLIPS
[B]GRAPHIC[/B] Russian POV of attack att...
Ukrainian helicopter being used as AD
Strike against another bridge in Kursk
Ukrainian Special Forces in Kursk
Russian column attacked in Donetsk
JDAM and AASM strikes in Kursk
KURSK
WSJ summary of how Ukraine prepared to e...
Russians shopping in Kursk grocery store
Map of where Russia is building defensiv...
Anders Puck Nielsen on Kursk and potentially forcing a second Russian mobilization
Spoiler
Ukraine claims 2000 POWs taken
[B]GREAT WATCH[/B] 5 minute video on sta...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
ft article "Military briefing: Kursk inc...
One Ukrainian artillery brigade commander in eastern Ukraine told the Financial Times that part of the reason for the Russian advance was Kyiv moving its scarce resources north.
His troops were back to rationing shells for their canons — the first time since US aid to Ukraine was held up by Congress — because ammunition had been reallocated for the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
[URL="https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/18/russias-double-punch-back-against-ukraines-shock-raid"]GREAT READ Economist article "Russia’s double-punch back against Ukraine’s shock raid"
[/URL]
Romanov saying villages weren't evacuate...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Watling for The Guardi...
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
Secondary explosion from oil tank (was h...
MILITARY AID
House Intelligence Committee Chairman @R...
RECRUITMENT
Meduza article "Toy soldiers Fresh out o...
PROPAGANDA
BATTLE CLIPS
KURSK
Lots of Russian vehicles burning near on...
Sykski's map on what Ukraine holds
GREAT READ Mark Galeotti on Kursk:
Ultimately, all wars are political, and so one way of assessing the progress of Ukraine’s Kursk operation is to consider its current and potential future outcomes. It has already given Ukrainians, tired of news of slow but steady Russian advance in the Donbas, a shot in the arm. It has also helped dispel a narrative — gaining ground in the West — that a slow, grinding Russian advance was inexorable, and so Kyiv needed to be encouraged to reach a deal with Moscow, however ugly. The prospects that Kursk can be used as a bargaining chip with President Vladimir Putin appear slender, though, and so far he is not transferring his seasoned troops from the Donbas. Again, though, the politics matters: Putin has again been wrong-footed, visibly so, and there is a widespread sense that he is handling the humanitarian aspects of the incursion as badly as the military response. This does not mean we can expect an imminent coup or revolution, but for a leader whose priority must be survival, the level of angry chatter on social media and evident discomfort within the elite are factors every bit as powerful as the balance of territory lost versus taken.
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Recap of last few days
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Overview of Ukraine's ...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Why the operation was ...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Map showing Russia's gains over the prev...
New York completely surrounded (Perpetua...
MILITARY AID
Foreign Policy article "Biden’s Ukraine ...
“If our partners lifted current restrictions on the use of weapons on Russian territory, we wouldn’t need to physically enter the Kursk region to protect our border communities and eliminate Russia’s potential for aggression,” Zelensky said in a post on X on Tuesday. “But for now, we cannot use all the weapons at our disposal and eliminate Russian terrorists where they are. Russian military bases, airfields, logistics, and other military facilities whose existence allows Putin to evade the search for peace are legitimate targets for our defense forces.”
WAR CRIMES
BATTLE CLIPS
Another helicopter shooting drones
Interview with a driver of a Stryker
KURSK
Report on visible trenches and fortifica...
Ukraine recovering a air defense system ...
Russian recruitment wave in Kursk
Ukraine claimed Russia was building up f...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
The Economist article "The Kremlin is cl...
RECRUITMENT
Screenshots and video from Ukrainian con...
AP article "Poorly trained recruits cont...
MILITARY AID
Politico article "Ukraine uses Kursk suc...
FROZEN FUNDS
Bloomberg article "Ukraine Jittery Over ...
TELEGRAM
Telegram CEO Pavel Durov arrested at Fre...
Rob Let on its importance in relation to...
WAR CRIMES
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Article on how Russia ...
Russia strikes police officer helping ci...
KURSK
Zelenskyy on purpose of Kursk and on the...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Thread explaining Kurs...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Ukrainian talks about the self-inflicted...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Tatarigami on the impo...
Rate of Russian advance in Ukraine since...
MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
WSJ article "U.S.-Made F-16 Crashed in U...
Zelenskyy claims first successful test o...
Politico article "Ukraine to present Bid...
WAR CRIMES
BATTLE CLIPS
Russian AFV hit by Ukrainian tank while ...
Ukrainian tank goes closer to destroy it
Ukrainian convoy hit by cluster munition...
Aftermath of a destroyed Russian convoy ...
Magyar video showing UAV strikes in Pokr...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Map showing pontoon bridges in Kursk
One Ukrainian brigade captures 7 tanks i...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Overview of Pokrovsk
ft article "Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces ba...
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
Ukraine launches 100+ drones into Russia
Video of Ukrainian drone being destroyed...
Russia claims to have destroyed 158 dron...
Potentially a drone hitting a Moscow pow...
[B]GOOD READ[/B] Tatarigami on the impor...
Russia fires Iskanders at Kharkiv
Iskander narrowly misses shopping center...
Various Russian strikes on civilians in ...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Reuters article "Exclusive: Russia payme...
"Mykhailo Podolyak from the Office of th...
WAR CRIMES
Russia strikes children's rehab center
GEORGIA
BATTLE CLIPS
Queen Hornet drone with automatic weapon
Underground hospital near front line
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Foreign Affairs articl...
Visually confirmed losses at Pokrovsk
September 1 has the most visually confir...
RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Analysis of the Russia...
RECRUITMENT
Russia's largest recruitment campaign
BBC article "Meeting the Ukrainian recru...
UKRAINE POLITICS
Major changes in Ukrainian minister posi...
Minister of Strategic Industries on step...
ft article "Ukraine undertakes biggest g...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
ft article "Russia built covert trade ch...
Reuters article "Gazpromneft Moscow refi...
MILITARY AID
Bloomberg article "Ukraine Allies Expect...
PROPAGANDA
BATTLE CLIPS
Ukrainian mig 29 shooting down shahed dr...
"Russian servicemen' first-person view o...
Quad hit by drone then troops attacked b...
Two Russians trying to shoot a drone
[B]GRAPHIC[/B] Drone drop at night
Where videos of Ukraine using thermite h...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
[B]GOOD READ[/B] The Economist "Danger i...
Russian tactics have not changed substantially since the fall of Avdiivka in February. Then as now, they depend on glide bombs and an artillery superiority that still ranges from at least 3:1 up to 10:1 in some sections. The operations are usually led by groups of two or three infantry soldiers, usually dismounted, though recently some have been observed using Lada sedans with the doors removed for a quick exit, Mad Max-style. The groups prowl forward at any opportunity. Andriy, an officer with the 79th brigade, reckons 80% of the Russians do not make it. But the other 20% find ways to get in behind the Ukrainian positions, and sometimes are lost to Ukrainian eyes. “They know that we won’t counterattack because we don’t have the men to do it, so they crawl wherever they can.”
CNN article "Outgunned and outnumbered, ...
[B]GOOD READ[/B] Overview of Pokrovsk
BBC article "Inside Pokrovsk - the vital...
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
Large scale UAV attack on Russia
MILITARY AID
France 24 article "France to use frozen ...
BATTLE CLIPS
Russian Su-30 blows up over Black Sea (n...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Russian soldier discusses Kursk and Ukra...
Russian column seen going into Kursk, li...
Map of the early stages of Russia's coun...
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
Reuters article "Ukraine targets Moscow ...
MILITARY AID
Politico article "US accuses China of gi...
Politico article "White House finalizing...
Lavrov claims decision to allow Ukraine ...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND SANCTIONS
PROPAGANDA
Margarita Simonyan bragging about RT's influence campaign, after Tenet became known
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES
I love war!
BATTLE CLIPS
Russian masses troops in Kursk which are...
Strike on a mine laying system
12 drone vs drone clips (this is a huge ...
Russian AD struck while being transporte...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
"Russian forces continue counterattacks ...
MILITARY AID
Punchbowl News article "Republicans’ Ukr...
Russia removing planes outside ATACMS ra...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
GREAT READ "Russia Is on a Slow Path to ...
Key interest rate raised to 19%
Liquidity in Russian banking sector
Bloomberg article "One of Russia's last ...
WAR CRIMES
BBC article "Three Red Cross staff kille...
Russian drone unit in Kherson which has ...
Russia sinks Turkish ship transporting g...
PROPAGANDA
CNN article "Biden administration unveil...
Chosen Company commander attacking Ukrai...
Newsweek article "Turkey's Erdogan Says ...
Finally catching up from the vacation I took at the end of March... Figured I'd start posting my thoughts in here again.
I wrote this a week again on Kursk, seems like we're seeing it play out now with Russia counterattacking.
KURSK
Before Kursk it was clear that Russia had gotten past (or was rapidly getting past) the areas around Pokrovsk where the attritional advantage for Ukraine made sense to continue fighting. Russia reached a point where they would be able to bypass defensive positions, and instead attack between settlements, making it pretty much a fight of infantry vs infantry where Russia has the advantage since they don't care about casualties.
The troops would not have been sent to reinforce these poor positions. Eventually Russia was going to push through these areas until they reached another place where it made sense to continue fighting, in this case the city itself. (If Russia chooses to attack it.)
Seeing that this was not a fight that Ukraine wanted to engage in, they looked for some other way to use the troops. The conservative method would have been to hold them as reserves. This would have caused Russia to be more cautious with their advances towards Pokrovsk and it definitely would have helped to stop Russian advances past or through Pokrovsk (but it would not have drastically changed Russia reaching Pokrovsk imo).
One of the major negatives of this is that it would look horrible. Ukraine would be making progress nowhere, while Russia would steadily be gaining territory.
The less risk averse strategy was to use the troops to attack somewhere, so we got Kursk. The result of this is that when Russia reached the point where they were going to advance far quicker, Ukraine was also advancing somewhere. This changed the media framing of what was happening in Ukraine a lot. It also showed that Ukraine is capable of launching offensives. Whether or not that actually results in anything remains to be seen. (There's other positives as well, but not going to get into them here. I think people drastically undersell the significance of Kursk.)
The negative to this strategy is that Russia was able to advance with less caution, resulting in them reaching Pokrovsk quicker. It is an important distinction that this does not necessarily mean that Russia was able to advance further or with significantly less costs, it means that they were able to make these advances in less time.
The gamble here is that Russia will not be able to have a breakthrough past Pokrovsk despite arriving at Pokrovsk sooner and knowing that Ukraine has far fewer (or no) reserves in the area. That is yet to be seen.
MILITARY TECH
Thermite is a depressing, but probably needed addition to the war. Russia has been dropping white phosphorous on city centers since the start of the war, which is an obvious war crime. Apparently attacking tree lines is not a war crime, but still an awful thing to see. I also am skeptical that this is a can of worms that Ukraine wants to open. For the units that began doing it I can see how it makes sense, but Russia is increasingly becoming reliant on low tech solutions like this, and they are also extremely good at copying and scaling up Ukrainian innovation, which we are likely to see soon regarding this.
The drone vs drone clips are becoming more common which is a great thing for Ukraine. This year there has been a major improvement with Russian strike capabilities. Previously they were really struggling with hitting time sensitive targets, but something changed this year and they were able to succeed at doing so far more often. Russian recon drones provide Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). Earlier in the year there was an instance where a drone was seen flying over an airbase for over an hour but there was no means to shoot to down. In the meantime no one was allowed to evacuate the planes located there because it might result in a pilot being killed. Previously the main way to shoot down drones was with MANPADs which are extremely expensive, with the ability to use drones to attack ISR drones, a far cheaper alternative is available.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
What an absolute mess. Despite the high interest rate, loans have not decreased a substantial amount. Russians are fully aware that mass inflation is coming, so even if 18% interest rate is crazy (19% as of today), they realize it's the best they're going to get so they might as well purchase things they'll need in the future now. Russia is emptying its coffers into the public, but giving no way for anyone to invest in anything outside of Russia. This means that people are forced to invest in Russia's war if they wish to invest at all, but it's pretty clear that investing in explosions is not going to bring back a lot of profit. This has gotten so bad that Russia has implemented a straight up ponzi scheme: pensioners are allowed to invest in a "non-state pension" which then goes straight into state sponsored companies or the state itself.
Secondary sanctions have hit China and now they are increasingly refusing Russian business. Since they are by far Russia's biggest business partner this will be a major blow going forward.
The Omsk refinery turned out to be a big deal. Ukraine's strike campaign on Russian oil has had little effect with the lower octane oil, but high tech refineries like the one that was hit in Omsk can't be replaced by Russia and prices are rising.
