Russian Invasion of Ukraine
More purges in Russia for being too patriotic:
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I love war!
BATTLE CLIPS
Russian masses troops in Kursk which are...
Strike on a mine laying system
12 drone vs drone clips (this is a huge ...
Russian AD struck while being transporte...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
"Russian forces continue counterattacks ...
MILITARY AID
Punchbowl News article "Republicans’ Ukr...
Russia removing planes outside ATACMS ra...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
GREAT READ "Russia Is on a Slow Path to ...
Key interest rate raised to 19%
Liquidity in Russian banking sector
Bloomberg article "One of Russia's last ...
WAR CRIMES
BBC article "Three Red Cross staff kille...
Russian drone unit in Kherson which has ...
Russia sinks Turkish ship transporting g...
PROPAGANDA
CNN article "Biden administration unveil...
Chosen Company commander attacking Ukrai...
Newsweek article "Turkey's Erdogan Says ...
Finally catching up from the vacation I took at the end of March... Figured I'd start posting my thoughts in here again.
I wrote this a week again on Kursk, seems like we're seeing it play out now with Russia counterattacking.
KURSK
Before Kursk it was clear that Russia had gotten past (or was rapidly getting past) the areas around Pokrovsk where the attritional advantage for Ukraine made sense to continue fighting. Russia reached a point where they would be able to bypass defensive positions, and instead attack between settlements, making it pretty much a fight of infantry vs infantry where Russia has the advantage since they don't care about casualties.
The troops would not have been sent to reinforce these poor positions. Eventually Russia was going to push through these areas until they reached another place where it made sense to continue fighting, in this case the city itself. (If Russia chooses to attack it.)
Seeing that this was not a fight that Ukraine wanted to engage in, they looked for some other way to use the troops. The conservative method would have been to hold them as reserves. This would have caused Russia to be more cautious with their advances towards Pokrovsk and it definitely would have helped to stop Russian advances past or through Pokrovsk (but it would not have drastically changed Russia reaching Pokrovsk imo).
One of the major negatives of this is that it would look horrible. Ukraine would be making progress nowhere, while Russia would steadily be gaining territory.
The less risk averse strategy was to use the troops to attack somewhere, so we got Kursk. The result of this is that when Russia reached the point where they were going to advance far quicker, Ukraine was also advancing somewhere. This changed the media framing of what was happening in Ukraine a lot. It also showed that Ukraine is capable of launching offensives. Whether or not that actually results in anything remains to be seen. (There's other positives as well, but not going to get into them here. I think people drastically undersell the significance of Kursk.)
The negative to this strategy is that Russia was able to advance with less caution, resulting in them reaching Pokrovsk quicker. It is an important distinction that this does not necessarily mean that Russia was able to advance further or with significantly less costs, it means that they were able to make these advances in less time.
The gamble here is that Russia will not be able to have a breakthrough past Pokrovsk despite arriving at Pokrovsk sooner and knowing that Ukraine has far fewer (or no) reserves in the area. That is yet to be seen.
MILITARY TECH
Thermite is a depressing, but probably needed addition to the war. Russia has been dropping white phosphorous on city centers since the start of the war, which is an obvious war crime. Apparently attacking tree lines is not a war crime, but still an awful thing to see. I also am skeptical that this is a can of worms that Ukraine wants to open. For the units that began doing it I can see how it makes sense, but Russia is increasingly becoming reliant on low tech solutions like this, and they are also extremely good at copying and scaling up Ukrainian innovation, which we are likely to see soon regarding this.
The drone vs drone clips are becoming more common which is a great thing for Ukraine. This year there has been a major improvement with Russian strike capabilities. Previously they were really struggling with hitting time sensitive targets, but something changed this year and they were able to succeed at doing so far more often. Russian recon drones provide Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). Earlier in the year there was an instance where a drone was seen flying over an airbase for over an hour but there was no means to shoot to down. In the meantime no one was allowed to evacuate the planes located there because it might result in a pilot being killed. Previously the main way to shoot down drones was with MANPADs which are extremely expensive, with the ability to use drones to attack ISR drones, a far cheaper alternative is available.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
What an absolute mess. Despite the high interest rate, loans have not decreased a substantial amount. Russians are fully aware that mass inflation is coming, so even if 18% interest rate is crazy (19% as of today), they realize it's the best they're going to get so they might as well purchase things they'll need in the future now. Russia is emptying its coffers into the public, but giving no way for anyone to invest in anything outside of Russia. This means that people are forced to invest in Russia's war if they wish to invest at all, but it's pretty clear that investing in explosions is not going to bring back a lot of profit. This has gotten so bad that Russia has implemented a straight up ponzi scheme: pensioners are allowed to invest in a "non-state pension" which then goes straight into state sponsored companies or the state itself.
Secondary sanctions have hit China and now they are increasingly refusing Russian business. Since they are by far Russia's biggest business partner this will be a major blow going forward.
The Omsk refinery turned out to be a big deal. Ukraine's strike campaign on Russian oil has had little effect with the lower octane oil, but high tech refineries like the one that was hit in Omsk can't be replaced by Russia and prices are rising.
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] ft article "Russia dia...
A senior Ukrainian military intelligence official said Russia had so far committed 38,000 men, including assault brigades redeployed from southern Ukraine, but the counter-attack was “still not large-scale”. It would need to send in more of its battle-hardened assault brigades to make more than “tactical” gains, the official added.
Zelenskyy has said that Russia will need about 100,000 troops to push his forces out.
Officials say mobilisation is on track, but that it would take another three months before the newly-trained troops could make an impact on the battlefield, the head of the defence committee of Ukraine’s parliament, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, told the FT.
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Politico article "As B...
RECRUITMENT
Kyiv Independent article "Ukrainian mili...
Kyiv Independent article "Western aid no...
MILITARY PRODUCTION AND MILITARY AID
Budanov says Iskander production has inc...
Bloomberg article "Russia Sharing Nuclea...
HYBRID WARFARE AND PROPAGANDA
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Galeotti for The Spect...
The answer lies in Putin’s assumptions about the West. He was, it seems, taken aback by the West’s unity and willingness to assume costs in order to place sanctions on Russia and support Ukraine after the February 2022 invasion. However, there is a sense in Kremlin circles that western publics have also lost sight of the costs of this arm’s-length involvement in the war. As one Russian think tanker close to government circles put it to me, ‘you just write a cheque every month and let us and the Ukrainians do the suffering.’
[...]
As a result, the chatter in Moscow is that the Kremlin is thinking that if European people can be made to feel that the war is directly affecting their lives for the worse, they will pressure their leaders to impose an ugly peace on Ukraine that will allow Putin to claim victory.
BATTLE CLIPS
Russian column hit by artillery and dron...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Politico article "Zelenskyy was urged no...
MILITARY AID
Politico article "As Biden deliberates, ...
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
Another "large scale drone attack" again...
Probably the largest depot explosion to ...
RECRUITMENT AND CASUALTY ESTIMATES
WSJ article "One Million Are Now Dead or...
Tatarigami on Ukraine's demographic cris...
Carnegie Endowment article "Russian Mili...
PROPAGANDA
Vsquare article "Leaked Files from Putin...
12 year sentence for woman who donated $...
SANCTIONS AND RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Politico article "West funding Putin’s s...
WSJ article "How Russia Profits From Ukr...
ARMENIA
BATTLE CLIPS
Turtle tank and IFV attack position and ...
Bradley struck by multiple ATGMS and cre...
Thread on Ukrainian drone unit
MILITARY AID
Ukrainian watches as Russian bomber laun...
EU parliament calls for lifting these re...
Snyder on Russia being able to strike Uk...
Reuters article "Exclusive: Ammunition f...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] WSJ article "Putin Is ...
The exchange highlighted a thorny dilemma facing Putin. While he has resisted a troop mobilization that could come at a political cost, Western estimates suggest Russia is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them.
[...]
“Forces are currently not sufficient to achieve the original war aims, knock Ukraine out of the war, to undermine its military potential or protect border regions of the Russian territory,” said the person briefed on the exchange with Putin. “More and more people are saying mobilization is inevitable.”
[...]
But Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine by throwing successive waves of soldiers at Ukrainian lines. That is leading to a high number of fatalities, with U.K. Defense Minister John Healey telling Parliament this month that the U.K. estimated Russia was losing 1,100 soldiers a day.
In July, Putin tried to boost troop numbers by doubling a one-time payment for new recruits to 400,000 rubles, or roughly $4,300, a huge sum in many parts of Russia. Some 8% of the Russian budget is now dedicated to paying for military personnel, Western officials say.
[...]
Russian leaders also fear that a mobilization could upset a delicate balance that they have tried to strike in the public’s perception of the war. Russian media and state propaganda has sought to portray the war as a heroic but distant conflict. They want Russians to feel they can continue to enjoy a normal life, along with rising incomes and greater redistribution of wealth as a result of the war.
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
The Russian ammo warehouse in Tver burni...
When one of the 3 ammo dumps was hit
Before and after sattelite images
Another view of one of the dumps hit
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Tatarigami on the impo...
RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN
UN predicts every day Ukrainians will be...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Looting Kursk region where Russia has al...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Pravda article "Infant...
RECRUITMENT
[URL="https://x.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1837075032624795672"]"A Duma deputy asks why the Russians army is become a 'pack of bandits' through recruiting criminals?
(The cynical but likely honest answer is to imply that why not, they are unlikely to survive)"[/URL]
BBC article "Volunteers dying as Russia’...
WAGNER
BATTLE CLIPS
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Ukraine likely pulling out of Vuhledar s...
ft article "Military briefing: Russia ‘o...
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
Close up shot of one of the ammo dumps t...
MILITARY AID
WAPO article "Debate over Ukraine weapon...
Long analysis of what is happening with ...
Reuters article "Exclusive: Iran brokeri...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Russia increasing defense spending in 20...
PEACE TALKS
Mark Galeotti "Ukraine has a victory pla...
BATTLE CLIPS
Drone footage of urban warfare in Torets...\
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Russians discuss Russians looting in Kur...
Overview of all of the areas around Pokr...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Russian forces in Kurs...
WAR CRIMES
Poland's Minister of Foreign affairs on ...
Glide bomb strikes residential building
MILITARY AID
Reuters article "Exclusive: Russia has s...
WSJ article "U.S. ‘UnimpressedR...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Russia’s tired ‘Hydraulic Ke...
Carnegie Endowment article 'Is a “...
BATTLE CLIPS
Drone drops explosive on drone
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Russian waving flag over Vuhledar city c...
PROPAGANDA
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Foreign Affairs articl...
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eur...
Carnegie Endowment article "Is Georgia H...
The Georgian Dream party has effectively threatened that if the opposition loses the upcoming election, it may lose legal means of fighting for power in the future. In other words, the authorities themselves are putting the opposition in a situation where street battles are the key to its survival.
BATTLE CLIPS
"Epic video of a Ukrainian fighter defen...
Bradley deploys smoke in Kursk
GEORGIA
CNN article "Alleging ‘Russian special o...
Graph showing the irregularities of the ...
Claim that in some area Georgia Drem rec...
Orban arrives to congratulate Georgia Dr...
STRIKE CAMPAIGNS
Russian oil refinery covered in anti dro...
Russia strikes police station in Kharkiv
ft article "Ukraine and Russia in talks ...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Russia's current campa...
RECRUITMENT
NYT article "As Russia Advances, U.S. Fe...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Russian tactics and go...
MILITARY AID
Number of shaheds fired by Russia
NORTH KOREA
Zelenskyy video on N Korea sending troop...
Ukraine could strike where North Koreans...
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Assessment of Russia u...
WAR CRIMES
Increased sightings of Russian executing...
PEACE TALKS
[B]GREAT READ[/B] Tatarigami on directio...