Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Before Kursk it was clear that Russia had gotten past (or was rapidly getting past) the areas around Pokrovsk where the attritional advantage for Ukraine made sense to continue fighting. Russia reached a point where they would be able to bypass defensive positions, and instead attack between settlements, making it pretty much a fight of infantry vs infantry where Russia has the advantage since they don't care about casualties.

The troops would not have been sent to reinforce these poor positions. Eventually Russia was going to push through these areas until they reached another place where it made sense to continue fighting, in this case the city itself. (If Russia chooses to attack it.)

Seeing that this was not a fight that Ukraine wanted to engage in, they looked for some other way to use the troops. The conservative method would have been to hold them as reserves. This would have caused Russia to be more cautious with their advances towards Pokrovsk and it definitely would have helped to stop Russian advances past or through Pokrovsk (but it would not have drastically changed Russia reaching Pokrovsk imo).

One of the major negatives of this is that it would look horrible. Ukraine would be making progress nowhere, while Russia would steadily be gaining territory.
The less risk averse strategy was to use the troops to attack somewhere, so we got Kursk. The result of this is that when Russia reached the point where they were going to advance far quicker, Ukraine was also advancing somewhere. This changed the media framing of what was happening in Ukraine a lot. It also showed that Ukraine is capable of launching offensives. Whether or not that actually results in anything remains to be seen. (There's other positives as well, but not going to get into them here. I think people drastically undersell the significance of Kursk.)

The negative to this strategy is that Russia was able to advance with less caution, resulting in them reaching Pokrovsk quicker. It is an important distinction that this does not necessarily mean that Russia was able to advance further or with significantly less costs, it means that they were able to make these advances in less time.

The gamble here is that Russia will not be able to have a breakthrough past Pokrovsk despite arriving at Pokrovsk sooner and knowing that Ukraine has far fewer (or no) reserves in the area. That is yet to be seen.

MILITARY TECH

Thermite is a depressing, but probably needed addition to the war. Russia has been dropping white phosphorous on city centers since the start of the war, which is an obvious war crime. Apparently attacking tree lines is not a war crime, but still an awful thing to see. I also am skeptical that this is a can of worms that Ukraine wants to open. For the units that began doing it I can see how it makes sense, but Russia is increasingly becoming reliant on low tech solutions like this, and they are also extremely good at copying and scaling up Ukrainian innovation, which we are likely to see soon regarding this.

The drone vs drone clips are becoming more common which is a great thing for Ukraine. This year there has been a major improvement with Russian strike capabilities. Previously they were really struggling with hitting time sensitive targets, but something changed this year and they were able to succeed at doing so far more often. Russian recon drones provide Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). Earlier in the year there was an instance where a drone was seen flying over an airbase for over an hour but there was no means to shoot to down. In the meantime no one was allowed to evacuate the planes located there because it might result in a pilot being killed. Previously the main way to shoot down drones was with MANPADs which are extremely expensive, with the ability to use drones to attack ISR drones, a far cheaper alternative is available.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY

What an absolute mess. Despite the high interest rate, loans have not decreased a substantial amount. Russians are fully aware that mass inflation is coming, so even if 18% interest rate is crazy (19% as of today), they realize it's the best they're going to get so they might as well purchase things they'll need in the future now. Russia is emptying its coffers into the public, but giving no way for anyone to invest in anything outside of Russia. This means that people are forced to invest in Russia's war if they wish to invest at all, but it's pretty clear that investing in explosions is not going to bring back a lot of profit. This has gotten so bad that Russia has implemented a straight up ponzi scheme: pensioners are allowed to invest in a "non-state pension" which then goes straight into state sponsored companies or the state itself.

Secondary sanctions have hit China and now they are increasingly refusing Russian business. Since they are by far Russia's biggest business partner this will be a major blow going forward.

The Omsk refinery turned out to be a big deal. Ukraine's strike campaign on Russian oil has had little effect with the lower octane oil, but high tech refineries like the one that was hit in Omsk can't be replaced by Russia and prices are rising.

BluegrassplayerOP

2mo ago

MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

[B]GREAT READ[/B] ft article "Russia dia...

A senior Ukrainian military intelligence official said Russia had so far committed 38,000 men, including assault brigades redeployed from southern Ukraine, but the counter-attack was “still not large-scale”. It would need to send in more of its battle-hardened assault brigades to make more than “tactical” gains, the official added.

Zelenskyy has said that Russia will need about 100,000 troops to push his forces out.

Officials say mobilisation is on track, but that it would take another three months before the newly-trained troops could make an impact on the battlefield, the head of the defence committee of Ukraine’s parliament, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, told the FT.

STRIKE CAMPAIGNS

[B]GREAT READ[/B] Politico article "As B...

RECRUITMENT

Kyiv Independent article "Ukrainian mili...

Kyiv Independent article "Western aid no...

MILITARY PRODUCTION AND MILITARY AID

Budanov says Iskander production has inc...

Bloomberg article "Russia Sharing Nuclea...

HYBRID WARFARE AND PROPAGANDA

[B]GREAT READ[/B] Galeotti for The Spect...

The answer lies in Putin’s assumptions about the West. He was, it seems, taken aback by the West’s unity and willingness to assume costs in order to place sanctions on Russia and support Ukraine after the February 2022 invasion. However, there is a sense in Kremlin circles that western publics have also lost sight of the costs of this arm’s-length involvement in the war. As one Russian think tanker close to government circles put it to me, ‘you just write a cheque every month and let us and the Ukrainians do the suffering.’

[...]

As a result, the chatter in Moscow is that the Kremlin is thinking that if European people can be made to feel that the war is directly affecting their lives for the worse, they will pressure their leaders to impose an ugly peace on Ukraine that will allow Putin to claim victory.

inews article "Russia’s secret plan to t...

BluegrassplayerOP

2mo ago

BATTLE CLIPS

Russian column hit by artillery and dron...

Tungsten airburst

MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Politico article "Zelenskyy was urged no...

Russians surrounded in Kursk

MILITARY AID

Politico article "As Biden deliberates, ...

UK MOD on Iran aid to Russia

STRIKE CAMPAIGNS

Another "large scale drone attack" again...

Probably the largest depot explosion to ...

Analysis of the strike

RECRUITMENT AND CASUALTY ESTIMATES

WSJ article "One Million Are Now Dead or...

Spoiler

Show

A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000.

The high—and fast-rising—tolls on both sides highlight what will be a devastating long-term effect for countries that were struggling with population declines before the war mainly because of economic turmoil and social upheavals. They also illuminate one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own motivations behind launching the invasion in 2022: to boost Russia’s population by absorbing Ukrainians. Russia’s invasions and capture of Ukrainian territory over the past decade have caused Ukraine to lose at least 10 million people under occupation or as refugees, according to government estimates and demographers.

Putin has long declared addressing Russia’s chronic demographic decline a priority, and the Kremlin has since embarked on a campaign of Russifying occupied territories, including large-scale abduction of children and pressuring Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship. In the occupied Donbas region, selling property and other transactions now require obtaining Russian citizenship.

The effect could be enduring. Alongside military deaths, Ukraine’s birthrate also collapsed to the lowest recorded level: In the first half of this year, three times as many people died as were born, according to government data. Some 250,000 deaths and over 87,000 births were recorded in this period, which is 9% less than the same period last year, according to government figures. In 2021, the year before the full-scale invasion, over 130,000 births were recorded.

Russia’s way of war is also aimed at making Ukraine unlivable. Russian missile-and-drone attacks have knocked out large parts of Ukraine’s energy grid, including power stations, which could drive many more Ukrainians to seek refuge outside the country this winter if it leads to major electricity and heat outages.

One of the key reasons Zelensky refuses to mobilize the key cohort of men aged between 18 and 25—typically the bulk of any fighting force—is because most of these people haven’t had children yet, according to the former Ukrainian officials. Should the recruits of that age group die or become incapacitated, future demographic prospects would dim further, Ukrainian demographers say.

Tatarigami on Ukraine's demographic cris...

Carnegie Endowment article "Russian Mili...

PROPAGANDA

Vsquare article "Leaked Files from Putin...

12 year sentence for woman who donated $...

SANCTIONS AND RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Politico article "West funding Putin’s s...

WSJ article "How Russia Profits From Ukr...

ARMENIA

Politico article "Russia tried to stage ...

BluegrassplayerOP

2mo ago

BATTLE CLIPS

Turtle tank and IFV attack position and ...

Bradley struck by multiple ATGMS and cre...

Thread on Ukrainian drone unit

MILITARY AID

Ukrainian watches as Russian bomber laun...

EU parliament calls for lifting these re...

Snyder on Russia being able to strike Uk...

Reuters article "Exclusive: Ammunition f...

[B]GREAT READ[/B] WSJ article "Putin Is ...

The exchange highlighted a thorny dilemma facing Putin. While he has resisted a troop mobilization that could come at a political cost, Western estimates suggest Russia is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them.

[...]

“Forces are currently not sufficient to achieve the original war aims, knock Ukraine out of the war, to undermine its military potential or protect border regions of the Russian territory,” said the person briefed on the exchange with Putin. “More and more people are saying mobilization is inevitable.”

[...]

But Russia has gained ground in eastern Ukraine by throwing successive waves of soldiers at Ukrainian lines. That is leading to a high number of fatalities, with U.K. Defense Minister John Healey telling Parliament this month that the U.K. estimated Russia was losing 1,100 soldiers a day.

In July, Putin tried to boost troop numbers by doubling a one-time payment for new recruits to 400,000 rubles, or roughly $4,300, a huge sum in many parts of Russia. Some 8% of the Russian budget is now dedicated to paying for military personnel, Western officials say.

[...]

Russian leaders also fear that a mobilization could upset a delicate balance that they have tried to strike in the public’s perception of the war. Russian media and state propaganda has sought to portray the war as a heroic but distant conflict. They want Russians to feel they can continue to enjoy a normal life, along with rising incomes and greater redistribution of wealth as a result of the war.

UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

The Russian ammo warehouse in Tver burni...

Another view

The moment it was struck

When one of the 3 ammo dumps was hit

Before and after sattelite images

Another view of one of the dumps hit

More angles

Satellite images of the fires

[B]GREAT READ[/B] Tatarigami on the impo...

RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN

Russia strikes nursing home

UN predicts every day Ukrainians will be...

MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Looting Kursk region where Russia has al...

[B]GREAT READ[/B] Pravda article "Infant...

RECRUITMENT

[URL="https://x.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1837075032624795672"]"A Duma deputy asks why the Russians army is become a 'pack of bandits' through recruiting criminals?
(The cynical but likely honest answer is to imply that why not, they are unlikely to survive)"[/URL]

BBC article "Volunteers dying as Russia’...

WAGNER

Wagner base burning inside of Russia

BluegrassplayerOP

2mo ago

BATTLE CLIPS

Russian shelling of Vuhledar

Skynex

MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Ukraine likely pulling out of Vuhledar s...

ft article "Military briefing: Russia ‘o...

UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

Close up shot of one of the ammo dumps t...

MILITARY AID

WAPO article "Debate over Ukraine weapon...

Long analysis of what is happening with ...

Reuters article "Exclusive: Iran brokeri...

RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Russia increasing defense spending in 20...

PEACE TALKS

Mark Galeotti "Ukraine has a victory pla...

Free link

[B]GREAT READ[/B] Tatarigami on the fact...

Zelenskyy on negotiations

BBC article "War with Russia closer to e...

BluegrassplayerOP

2mo ago

BATTLE CLIPS

Russian column gets hit

Drone vs jet ski

Drone footage of urban warfare in Torets...\

Javelin hits tank

MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Russians discuss Russians looting in Kur...

Fortifications in Pokrovsk

Overview of all of the areas around Pokr...

[B]GREAT READ[/B] Russian forces in Kurs...

WAR CRIMES

Poland's Minister of Foreign affairs on ...

Glide bomb strikes residential building

MILITARY AID

Reuters article "Exclusive: Russia has s...

WSJ article "U.S. ‘Unimpressed&#82...

RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Russia’s tired ‘Hydraulic Ke...

Carnegie Endowment article 'Is a “...

The Atlantic article "How Defense Expert...

60 page CSIS report on the war predictio...

BluegrassplayerOP

2mo ago

BATTLE CLIPS

Urban warfare in Toretsk

Drone drops explosive on drone

MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Russian waving flag over Vuhledar city c...

PROPAGANDA

[B]GREAT READ[/B] Foreign Affairs articl...

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eur...

Carnegie Endowment article "Is Georgia H...

The Georgian Dream party has effectively threatened that if the opposition loses the upcoming election, it may lose legal means of fighting for power in the future. In other words, the authorities themselves are putting the opposition in a situation where street battles are the key to its survival.