"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread
It's been about 9.5 years and 350K posts of epicness, but "It Lives, It Lives" can live no more. The OG LLSNL Chat Thre
It doesn't matter if they are playing rationally.
There is a huge misconception that "GTO is supposed to break even" or that "exploitable is better than GTO vs bad players." It's complete hogwash.
Computers reach GTO when they try out all kinds of lines and reach a point when nobody wins vs each other, but that's because at that point they are equal in skill. Anyone deviating from GTO will lose to GTO, and better knowledge of what GTO actually looks like will in fact make you better at knowing how to exploit non-optimal strategies.
Yes, you exploit calling stations by value betting, but better knowledge of GTO will in fact make you better at value betting too, because you will better understand how to adjust your range against a different defense frequency. GTO isn't saying "this is how you should always play", it's saying this is how to not be exploited by someone's who's doing the same to you. If you lock someone's range and strategy to something different, you will know what the adjustments are. That's what I'm getting at.
Though that particular example isn't the best imo. You should often pot that flop with KQ and pot or 1.5x pot the turn again and see if 77 still calls. If they still do, cool, you will get it back pretty quickly most likely but now you know how to beat them even better.
I have seen plenty of former whales and former big spots play significantly "better" over the recent years and even just the recent months.
If you don't have a strong game which involves bluffing correctly in the right spots, etc., you won't be able to extract anywhere close to the maximum from the bad players who have learned to make some basic adjustments.
This also doesn't account for the regulars who will have also made adjustments to be less mediocre than they used to be.
I have seen plenty of former whales and former big spots play significantly "better" over the recent years and even just the recent months.
If you don't have a strong game which involves bluffing correctly in the right spots, etc., you won't be able to extract anywhere close to the maximum from the bad players who have learned to make some basic adjustments.
This also doesn't account for the regulars who will have also made adjustments to be less mediocre than they used to be.
Yeah 100%.
SABR,
You seem to have a really deep knowledge of the game. In fact, it seems to be much deeper than that of many of the regs that I play against.
Why aren't you playing bigger stakes?
I feel that Commerce 5/5 and even Commerce 5/10 must have a much smaller winrate than Gardens bounty.
I don't really know what higher stakes game are around at other casinos, but there must be something for you where you could cash in on high winrates.
I was under the impression that defending optimally requires assumptions about an opponent's range. That MDF is calculated only from the part of our range that can bluff-catch. But to know that we need to know what our opponent's bluffs look like, right?
To me, that suggests the process of finding GTO is not an isolated one where we are only concerned with our own holdings. Instead, we search for optimality for our position and our opponent's position and then balance one range against the other until we reach an equilibrium.
How do we rationally determine a bluffing range for an irrational player? Do we always assume a wide range and proceed accordingly?
In Sabr's example, if we're not always potting that flop, what is the process for determining when we should bet smaller?
Admittedly, I'm out of my depth here.
I recently posted my ~15 year / 6000 hours results (with lol 1000 hour sample size breakdowns) in my Well thread below. (as G says, only over $100K in winnings, not a milly, but I appreciate the misread V!)
No one is more surprised at my more recent results than me. As I stated earlier in my thread, I would have gladly snap accepted 5 bbs/hr moving forward after the disastrous 2017 as well as the rake doubling, but somehow I've surpassed that. Somehow shipped ~8 bbs/hr over the last 1K hours. Somehow shipping ~12 bbs/hr this year thru a quarter of my lol yearly hours. Although for sure lol @ sample sizes.
Not sure if SABR caught my anecdote from a page or two back, where I 3bet to 4.3x for 1/3rd of my stack, accidentally tell the table I have AA... and get called. This is a game I should be bluffing more in?
But, yes, of course there are lots of aware players in the pool too, who are highly unlikely to pay me off. I try my best not to sit with many of them. Or maybe not play my hand as face up against them when I do.
I am for sure not playing Street poker, and I'm probably leaving a lotta money on the table by not doing so... *if* I was capable of implementing it (which I'm probably not). I've settled into a nice groove with my style (Church poker?) and as a purely rec player I'm ok with it.
ETA: FWIW, I've always been a sky is falling type of dood regarding where our game is going. But I've finally convinced myself that there will simply be enough suckers (either long term ones or a cast that rotates in and out) to support the game. Always has been in the ~19 years I've been playing in this casino and I've finally convinced myself that ain't gonna change. The only worry is the inevitable increase in rake.
GcluelessChurchpokernoobG
sabr, to be clear, i'm not advocating to never bluff
i very specifically said I first need to know if a guy is willing to fold two pair on a wet board - that's a big if at those stakes
but i standby that very few players at low stakes who have a pocket pair and the board flops broadway are thinking "there's very few hands my opponent has here that doesn't beat my 77 so I should fold"
we don't need to test that theory by bombing 3 streets - and losing a big pot to a hero call - we should assume that's the case until proven otherwise and check back that hand after they decide "i think he's bluffing i got a pair I'm going with it" and call a flop cbet and we get our value when instead of KQ on AJx board we have AJ or JJ or AK/AQ and then we bomb three streets of value vs his 77
SABR,
You seem to have a really deep knowledge of the game. In fact, it seems to be much deeper than that of many of the regs that I play against.
Why aren't you playing bigger stakes?
I feel that Commerce 5/5 and even Commerce 5/10 must have a much smaller winrate than Gardens bounty.
I don't really know what higher stakes game are around at other casinos, but there must be something for you where you could cash in on high winrates.
I had a $300K downswing. Technically still in it as I'm not back to my peak yet. Hopefully by next year I will be out of it.
I had life leaks and didn't manage my money well (spent recklessly when I had more money). I also have an expensive car hobby, which I am not willing to give up.
One bluff attempt per session might even be on the high side for me. Not saying there aren't opportunities, but I never force it and just patiently wait for them. Otherwise (at least for me), it's mostly about doing better than my opponents in the battle of winning more with the best hand and losing less with the non-best hand.
Ggogogo!,imoG
This thread sorely needs GG bluffing HHs
Spoiler
I recently posted my ~15 year / 6000 hours results (with lol 1000 hour sample size breakdowns) in my Well thread below. (as G says, only over $100K in winnings, not a milly, but I appreciate the misread V!)
No one is more surprised at my more recent results than me. As I stated earlier in my thread, I would have gladly snap accepted 5 bbs/hr moving forward after the disastrous 2017 as well as the rake doubling, but somehow I've surpassed that. Somehow shipped ~8 bbs/hr over the last 1K hours.
I'm def not hating. I admire your discipline and results.
Not sure if SABR caught my anecdote from a page or two back, where I 3bet to 4.3x for 1/3rd of my stack, accidentally tell the table I have AA... and get called. This is a game I should be bluffing more in?
Yes absolutely, just not against this player obv.
In general most players, even winners, underbluff most spots.
But, yes, of course there are lots of aware players in the pool too, who are highly unlikely to pay me off. I try my best not to sit with many of them. Or maybe not play my hand as face up against them when I do.
Yeah, see there you go. Bluff more here.
I think venice misread GGs graph. Over $100K, but not a milly.
That said, his winrate has gone up in each of his last 1K/hr samples, even though rake has too.
Many ITF just really have a hard time wrapping their brains around to what extent the lowest limits are really, as the Barenaked Ladies said, like LeAnn Rimes, all about value.
More rake really is better!
OK but wouldn't you win more if no one could say that about you?
And your strategy would be much more resilient to people paying attention for more than 10 minutes?
Honestly, my home casino only spreads 1/3, there’s about 20-25 true regs in the pool and a number of weekend guys and then a bunch of droolers. And getting a hand heads up pre flop is rare. Last week we had 4 consecutive family pots where UTG opened for a raise and EVERYONE called. I play with bingo loving flop monkeys.
For the number of hands I play in a session, I think the short answer is no. I still get plenty of action. I may execute one true squeeze every other session or so but it’s all very situational and villain dependent.
I’m winning 25BB/hr this year. LOL sample size for sure.
An interesting anomaly: as of last night, AA has held for me sixteen straight times.
I don't think I'm overbetting or otherwise forcing players out of pots. Getting action, just on a weird streak.
I don't play much any more, so I'd guess this is over the course of a year or so. Happened to notice after four or five wins, and have been tracking since.
Apropos of nothing, I've just found it interesting.
SABR,
Not to beat up a dead horse. But couldn't you win more money by doing a staking deal with someone who trusts you, so you could play the higher stakes games?
Commerce 5/5 has pretty insane drop compared to the average size of the pots...
I don't play at Commerce. I think $5/5 is still beatable for $100K a year with how bad players are.
California living sounds rough on _only_ $100k/year. I assume that is supplemented with other rev streams.
SABR,
I know regs at Gardens winning more than 250k/year. You are surely better than them. Except maybe this Chinese pro named David.
David spells SABR if you write it backwards
Depends where in Cali.
Sacramento, Fresno, Manteca, Stockton, Temecula ok.
LA, San Diego, SF and rest of Bay it's below poverty line.
Like a month ago, I had a recruiter reach out to me for a role out of Culver City. I snap turned it down because the comp was already a 30k pay cut(for a principal role too), their equity(not public so effectively useless) was a joke, and they didn't offer remote. They did offer relocation, but houses half the size of my current home were well over $1mm in that area.
Like a month ago, I had a recruiter reach out to me for a role out of Culver City. I snap turned it down because the comp was already a 30k pay cut(for a principal role too), their equity(not public so effectively useless) was a joke, and they didn't offer remote. They did offer relocation, but houses half the size of my current home were well over $1mm in that area.
Yeah it's generally not going to make sense to move around here for any start up or small company if you're already principal level or higher.
Culver City has a lot of entertainment industry related stuff like Apple and Netflix so unless you're trying to break in specifically into that area there's not much incentive unless you're a new grad or early career.
Just went to an open house here in Dallas and new build houses around 3k sqft are around $850k.
That could get you a rundown 1k sqft condo built 20yrs ago around where I live.
