380 bbs deep. Monster draw on turn facing aggression from good player in 3bet pot OOP
Hero (3800): LAG image and a lot of history with villain. In this session im being staked by the owner of the private game and villain is aware of it, so he must know im playing extremely careful. He may try to exploit me in some spots
Villain (5500): Good balanced aggressive player. Biggest winning player in the room. We have more than 2 years of history together. He is not afraid to make a big bluff/big call in the right spots. We talk a lot of strategy together so we know very well each other game. He likes to exploit players
OTH
Blinds 5-10. 4 handed and villain button straddles to 25
Folds to hero who is in CO and raises to 100 with KsQs, villain 3bets to 350 on the button. Hero calls
Before the hand we had been discussing a lot with villain of calling ranges on 3bets pots OOP and villain knows I fold almost all my range when OOP. I decide I want to call and play post flop instead of trying to push him off 4betting knowing he is more than capable to 5bet me light pre flop if he detects a flick of weakness. Also his 3betting range is pretty wide, he likes to play in position. He is not necessarily premium
Flop (715): QcTc9s
Hero checks, villain bets 400. Hero calls
Turn (1515): 7s
Hero checks, villlain bet 800. Hero has 3050 behind
Ok we got a monster draw OOP facing a very strong range from a good player. Villain can be betting this hand with QJ, TJ, J9, KJ, J8, QQ, TT, 99, QT, 9T. I think AA, KK is checking back. AJ, AK is checking back too. If I call this turn and the flush/straight doesnt come, villain is very probably going to fire the river and I will end up with a bluff catcher which I will have to fold.
Since he is aware that im being staked in this session, he must know that im playing a pretty tight range and I will not put almost 4k without the nuts. Im inclining to shove this turn and hope I dont get instant called. Im blocking the nut straight (although it would be much better to have QJ here) and I have a lot of outs in case he decides to call me with 2 pair. A set might find a call, AA/KK will instant fold this raise.
Thoughts?
2 Replies
After the analysis of this hand, I realised I was 4betting to tight, even when deep stacked, so KQ has become a pure 4bet in my play against decent players (not against rocks or overly tight players). Could have avoided a lot of trouble in this hand
Turn is a call. I don't think he folds better. He calls with more better than worse. You might get hands with equity to fold, but I don't think that is worth it. You have enough behind that you aren't pot commited if you call.
If you are worried you can't call river, then I think you should be considering two things. One, does he have too many bluffs on river? If yes, then you should be calling the river a lot. If no, then you have a more complicated decision. If he is underbluffing rive
The analysis in the second paragraph is not correct because this isn’t simply a RIO spot due to our massive redraw. In theory depending on Villain’s tendencies we can call turn and fold river unimproved if we think our profit from improving on the river will outweigh what we lose by folding the best hand when we don’t improve.
