Top pair facing odd turn raise
Hi everyone, hand I recently played. Will post results after some feedback:
Background on Villain: Sitting ~2k deep at 1/2. This is clearly a grinder or player having an insane sun run (or combination of both). Villain was wearing sunglasses
Eff stack: $300 (Hero; V covers by like 12x)
Hero picks up AQss UTG+1 raises to 10. 3 callers (including V in BB)
Flop: 5Q9shh
Hero bets 10, two callers (including BB).
Turn: 2h
Hero bets 35, BB raises to 135. Hero tanks for a 1.5 minutes and shoves???
My thought process: When I saw this raise it just made zero sense to me. Yes I know the ol reliable Ed Miller quote ('if you're opponent has a monster you'll usually here about it by the river') and it was exactly his advice in the The Course to fold to weird big turn bets that made me lean towards flatting or even folding. But something about this bet just made absolutely zero sense to me. I know that V in the BB can have a lot of flush draws on the flop, but I think he would raise a lot of them too. Ultimately, I went with my gut and decided to jam because something about this spot just did not make sense to me from this particular Villain.
Any input appreciated (especially theory-related)
2 Replies
Hi everyone, hand I recently played. Will post results after some feedback:
Background on Villain: Sitting ~2k deep at 1/2. This is clearly a grinder or player having an insane sun run (or combination of both). Villain was wearing sunglasses
Eff stack: $300 (Hero; V covers by like 12x)
Hero picks up AQss UTG+1 raises to 10. 3 callers (including V in BB)
Flop: 5Q9shh
Hero bets 10, two callers (including BB).
Turn: 2h
Hero bets 35, BB raises to 135. Hero tanks for a 1.5 minutes and shoves???
My thought pr
In my experience, opponents check-raising the flop with draws isn't something you see as much at the lower stakes, especially not in multi-way pots. And check-raises on the turn are usually very strong hands, rarely bluffs, especially in multi-way pots.
Let's assume V would be 3Bing his best AXs (AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A5) combos preflop from the BB, and maybe also KQs. On the flop, he wouldn't have a flush draw plus a pair to fall back on. He'd just have a flush draw, with few combo-draws available here. There are very few draws he can have that want to x/r this flop.
Players who are running good and big-stacked will flat call pre-flop from the BTN and BB with all sorts of weaker AXs and suited connectors or gappers. If they connect at all on the flop, they're not going to fold to a normal size bet. They're certainly not going to fold to a 1/4 pot bet.
On this flop, multi-way, I think you needed to bet at least half pot, if not more, like 3/4 pot. At small stakes, absolute bet size is going to matter more than bet size relative to the pot. A $30 bet on the flop here would just be a $30 bet, not "OMG, he bet 3/4 pot!".
We should be checking back on this turn card, but if we bet and get x/r'd, we can just fold. TPTK isn't going to win here very often, if ever, after getting two callers on the flop. This x/r is almost certainly a flush.
Why the raise? If the villain is bluffing, let him bluff. IF he his 2 pair or a set, then you going all in only helps him. Two things happen here
You jam like you did - Villain folds bluffs, villain calls with hands that beat you
You call - Villain when bluffing jams river. Villain when ahead jams river
The first option is more profitable as you're all in either way, but it gets him shoving his bluffs instead of folding them.
The second option you mean 😉
