Bluff catching river with trips?

Snap

1) i dont like calling pre with this bad of a hand esp against described tricky V

2) It looks like you have a flush draw or maybe a mid pair trying not to give overs a free card on flop

3) The flop and turn call has him heavily weighted towards over pairs and a FD prob wont call your turn bet

4) It really looks like you have a missed flush or 99-JJ but is an overpair going to over jam pot with QQ or AA for value?

Only KK makes sense. What draw can he have unless his UTG open range is much wider and you never mentioned that which is super important. If its between 3 combos of nuts vs some weird draw he decided to call a huge turn bet with I look at your read that he can bluff here + your weird x to induce and your hand being under repped I call.

Pre is bad. Dunno why you'd check river as he has few flush draws but easy call. Next time just jam river yourself.

1 combo of A8ss, one of 89ss but not sure if he jams. 44 shouldn’t open pre but might. I think the main concerns are 77 and KK. There are a bunch of heart combos he could have if he’s willing to call turn overbet with them. We might beat AA or AKhh once in a while. We are really high in range when we check river, I would call.

Why do we think Hero’s hand is under-repped? It looks like exactly what it is, especially with the turn overbet. I’m not sure how we’re beat here but I’d be wary of calling. This might just be a “if you have it you have it” call but I think the described Villain probably expects Hero to call.

I fold pre but thats me at 2/5 I'm somewhat nitty due to lack of confidence. AP I go 1/3rd on turn and 1/3rd OTR. River is blah, I call it off probably. Kd is a weird card to rep.

Maybe I could have chose different wording but the river x makes H's hand under repped from my pov. It looks like V has an overpair cause H's turn overbet should have eliminated draws so why would H x to induce if V shouldnt have anything that missed on the river?

The line H took looks like he missed and gave up and got V to overbet bluff (esp given read) but since 80%+ hands posted on 2p2 are H losing its going to be harder to take the side that V is bluffing.

H’s turn bet “should have” eliminated draws but might not have. I mean I have personally seen people call twice-pot overbets with nut flush draws, turn jams with naked gutshots, etc. You never can tell, at least not 100%.

EDIT: Being willing to bluff with equity before the river is not always the same as being willing to bluff big on the river. So it’s not clear whether Hero’s read applies here.

I would definitely bet the river here - he has a lot more overpair combos than hearts, and will probably call some medium sized bet with say QQ. Think it's fairly easy to sum up his range as he's only opening so wide UTG 7 handed. As played he has an extremely narrow range here of value - certainly can justify calling if he bluffs 100% of the time with his flush draws, but that's not realistic. Furthermore I would think he folds some flush draws to your overbet OTT - I think this is a fold given the player pool. Preflop is whatever - I would think your edge on a 2/5 game is massive so I'm fine with it, and you can really punish him on favorable flops for your perceived range.

I don't know, against a utg open, a flop c/r followed by an overbet looks like either trips or a semi bluff. But then checking the river rather than the expected value bet might seem more like a KXhh that is trying to get to showdown.
Based on the read, this doesn't seem like a player who is going too far beyond their own hand and the fact that hero has checked the river. The problem is that not many high card hands get to the river and hit the K (AKhh, KQhh) and pocket pairs QQ-99 seem like they'd be glad to get a showdown.

Seems like an easy call he can think a K is the nuts here thinking you CR'd something like 66 or 99 on the flop.

I would have raised a polar sizing on the flop though since you have almost all of the 8s.

PRE - If there are multiple / bad callers before it gets to us, or if V is a whale, I can see calling with 8d5d in the BB. But otherwise, this is just too wide pre.

FLOP - x/r seems pretty standard. With our hand, a flush draw on board, and OOP, we might want to size up, at least 4x, or even 5x.

TURN - Love the over-bet. Might go 150% pot, to $270.

RIVER - Yuck. He's repping three combos of KK or one combo of 87ss? Is he ever calling the flop x/r with 77?

I think we can block-bet river and fold to a raise. As played, I don't see how we can fold. If he got there with KK or 87ss, he's just getting paid.

Ouch.

Not meaning to sound sarcastic, but other than the loose call pre, the small size of the flop x/r, the smallish over-bet on the turn, and the check-call rather than block-bet-folding on the river, I think you played it fine.

I'd like to know you're reasoning here for the check on the river. It's mind-boggling to me that you'd ch/r, overbet and then slow down on a king river? AA, AKhh, KQhh KJhh...maybe even 10's, JJ and QQ look you up.

Also not sure how experienced you are with overbets, but they are supposed to polarizing in nature, meaning they can be strong but also be draw heavy and bluffy. If you do happen to overbet with VALUE and an extreme range advantage, you have to continue on. This is a river bet that probably mixes 1/2 pot and jams, and I'm jamming more due to the nature of the overbet on the turn.

AP, you got exactly what I assume you wanted so you have to call.

Turn is sized to jam river and put a lot of pressure on overpairs when H takes this line with flush draws. X river is the only big mistake in the hand. We dont want folds from mid pairs on the flop. Assuming we know V isnt a calling station we make a lot of money double / triple barreling on this run out getting V to fold med pp’s on turn and JJ-QQ (sometimes a K and AA) on the river. H got coolered.

I don't entirely disagree. Where I differ is not the actions hero took on flop and turn, just the execution.

If we check raise flop, there wouldn't seem to be any point if we take a small sizing. I don't want to harp on hero for the sizing he chose, because I generally wouldn't expect 77 or worse to call a x/r of any size. But in retrospect, I can't help but wonder if the smaller sizing may have seemed weak to V, made him suspect a bluff by hero, and emboldened V to call. Taking a larger size with our flop x/r helps define V's range more, and shift it more towards any over-pair to the board, plus maybe some overcards with a draw.

Once we get to turn, with what is almost certainly the best hand (or would be, if we x/r'd large enough to fold out 77 and worse pairs), we know we're trying to extract max value from overpairs and V's draws. If we're trying to portray balance, I'd think a larger size would allow us to have more bluffs. An over-bet that is only marginally more than pot often looks like we miscalculated the pot size and meant to just bet pot. It reduces the effectiveness of an over-bet, which is supposed to appear polar.

I think those two sizing choices allow V to get to the turn with 77, and get to the river with KK, which is why I asked in my original comment if V calls the flop x/r with 77.

Our hand looks super strong on the flop, but we should realize it may not remain all that strong by the river. We shouldn't mind taking this one down on the turn. We shouldn't even be in this hand with 85, so playing it fast and for stack protection seems correct.

Larger bet sizing should reduce the number of hands that can get to and beat us on the river. I'd be most worried about 87s, just one combo. But as played, now I'm worried about 77 and KK too.

If hero bet bigger on flop and turn, repping a more polar range that would include some missed draws, I could see checking river to induce. As played, I think that option is off the table, and all we can do is block-bet-fold.

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River overbet is an underbluffed spot IMO. It's not even the strongest trips to call with. If you 've seen him overbet/bluff, that's a different story.