Facing a River Overbet in Low Stakes

I would just fold preflop. I don't love AJo against an EP open plus I pretty much avoid solid pros in all but the best of situations.

We have nothing going for us on this flop and it isn't supposed to hit us. Course a small cbet may fold out better Ax... but does he really just flat AK preflop / not fold AQ preflop? Never going to hate on a small cbet after 3betting preflop but not sure it is going to accomplish much other than perhaps give us a free card attempt on the turn.

Next time don't post the results as it will taint responses. I suppose there are some bluffs (busted diamonds). But river jams by most (although perhaps not him) are heavily tilted towards value at LLSNL. Also not sure what he is targeting with Jx hands with a shove (wouldn't he bet smaller to get sigh called by what looks like a whiffed AK?).

GcluelessNLnoobG

While you correctly identified that your 3-bet preflop might be too loose, your postflop play seems reasonable.
The river decision is the most critical one.

Considering that you're likely only ahead of bluffs (missed draws) and possibly some worse Js, it's a challenging call.
Your opponent might not be bluffing often enough to make this a profitable call in the long run.
If you believe the villain is capable of bluffing with missed draws or weaker hands, the call might be reasonable.
However, against a solid player, the likelihood of facing a bluff in this spot might be lower.

AJo is a cuspy hand to raise against this V's EP open, in this game, with your stack depth. I'd prefer folding or just flat calling.

If you flat call, you can call a 1/3 c-bet, and just fold the turn if he bets the brick.

As played, the flop c-bet is probably fine, as is the turn check back. At this point, I'd be mentally done with the hand, unless we improve on the river.

River is a tough spot. FDFD missed, but QT/T7 got there. He could have some worse JX for value, but also 2P and sets. Maybe once in a while he shows up with QQ.

After you check back turn, he's going to have more bluffs in his range. It's a tough fold to find after you make TPTK. I'd think some of his weaker value hands would just check again.

In game, my thoughts would be that he probably wouldn't jam a worse Jx, so we're not beating any of his value. We're only beating his bluffs. Although the missed FD makes this call alluring, I think a good reg would under-bluff here, not over-bluff, if you have a reasonably solid image.

I might call anyway, when we get here the way we did, but I might find the fold, too, albeit not quickly or happily. I'd be sick if he turned over KJs or A9s.

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Grunch after 1st paragraph: This hand against this V? Why? Seems entirely unnecessary. Fold >> call>>>>>3b.

Preflop is very marginal. ATo would be an easy fold; against solid ranges AJo is probably a fold most of the time as well.

98x isn't the worst flop in the world, but it isn't great. You don't have any backdoors (I suppose you have backdoor straight equity) but other than that it's a whiff. As someone pointed out, you might fold out AQ/AK. Betting vs checking is probably close.

Turn check is fine.

After it goes check-check I would struggle to fold the river with TPTK - the quintessential bluffing spot. Odds are OK. AA and KK probably get 4bet most of the time, yes there are some big hands but don't 88/99/98 get check-raise on the flop a lot? Getting a price, I call this.

Fold > Call > 3bet PF.

As played, you cbet way too small. He's not folding much of his range to it.

Checking through turn, while keeping the pot small, reveals you don't have a real hand - otherwise you'd be OK to get money in on a connected board after you strung him along with a small cbet "for value".

River is a bit of a cooler, because it's arguably the best card you could hope to see if you think he floats your cbet with AQ AK, and now you've "hit something".

The overbet on his side looks fishy, but bet size generally equates to hand strength at low stakes. He's trying to tell you you're beat. Just listen to him and fold.

I agree that this is best played as a fold, but if we are even considering seeing a flop, the three-bet is mandatory. Flat-calling opens is a fish move.