Value Extraction & Line Check - AK in position on KKTr flop
1/3 - effective stacks $350ish
Villain is 30s, Asian, recently sat down at the table and has only played 2-3 hands in last 15 min, but didn't showdown anything. No real reads.
To the hand:
UTG (Villain) straddles to $6, action folds to Hero with AKo on the button, hero raises to $18, both blinds fold, UTG calls $18
($36) Flop KKTr
UTG checks, Hero bets $15, UTG calls
($66) Turn 5s bringing backdoor flush draw on the board - Hero does not have a spade
UTG checks, Hero bets $40, UTG calls
($146) River 9c
UTG pauses for 10-15 seconds then checks, Hero pauses for 10-15 seconds and bets $20, UTG calls
----
Did we miss out on any value here? What sizing do you like across all 3-streets?
If we are just supposed to take or leave it how is this sub supposed to give quality advice if the terrible advice isn't ostracized?
I guess I'll stop participating here
Yea gawd I just wish this place wuz more like plebbit too!! +1 updoot for you man. you nailed it. What we need is a narcissistic echo chamber where everyone parrots the same garbage ad nauseum and no one has any variety of opinion. SHEESH DOESNT GG KNOW THAT??!! Im so outta here too! +1 upjolt my comment and I'll +1 upsuck yours too brother!
I originally thought this was an absurd idea... until I realized that the flopped OESD got there. There's a pretty good argument that the vast majority of hands that are calling a fourth barrel here are limited to KQ/KJ and QJ, of which we are actually a 2:1 dog combo-wise. So in order to tip the scale to include some really weak hands (Kxs? Lol Tx or incredibly sticky pocket pairs?), plus add in the (probably rare) times we run into a slowplayed monster, my guess the smaller the better for the river against most. OP's sizing might not even be that half bad.
GcluelessNLnoobG
I originally thought this was an absurd idea... until I realized that the flopped OESD got there. There's a pretty good argument that the vast majority of hands that are calling a fourth barrel here are limited to KQ/KJ and QJ, of which we are actually a 2:1 dog combo-wise. So in order to tip the scale to include some really weak hands (Kxs? Lol Tx or incredibly sticky pocket pairs?), plus add in the (probably rare) times we run into a slowplayed monster, my guess the smaller the better for t
There was some thought behind the river bet - I did want to get called light. But let's say he had K2s or whatever, we prob did lose out on lots of value
There was some thought behind the river bet - I did want to get called light. But let's say he had K2s or whatever, we prob did lose out on lots of value
Really depends on what combos we're giving him. If we're giving him all 16 combos of QJ (fair?), then it actually becomes somewhat debatable whether a value bet is even in order. Course we feel like an idiot when he snap sigh calls with Kxs, but there's about the same amount of QJ as there is reasonable KQo/KJo/Kxs, and slowplayed monsters might wash with his lol light Tx/etc. calldowns.
Gfairlynicehand,imoG
GG prefaces his posts with how tight he is and that he limps a lot of big hands. He's a winning low-stakes player with graphs to prove it. I know two players who nut-peddle live and get paid every time. GG is not offering coaching or advice for moving up levels -- just a different style for low level players that works for him -- take it or leave it, but don't be nasty.
Complete +1 to this.
At low stakes GGs strategy is legit; there's a reason all those OMCs on Social Secuity can afford to play poker every day.
Sure he gives up some EV upside for low variance, but I have no problem believing it's a winning strategy.
Also GG is like our low tide marker. If the decision is all in or fold, and GG says all-in, all-in is almost always going to be correct.
There was some thought behind the river bet - I did want to get called light. But let's say he had K2s or whatever, we prob did lose out on lots of value
I saw in one of your earlier posts that if V raised, you'd have called. If that's true, then I could see betting larger here. If you want to induce a check-raise bluff, and still leave the door open to get paid off by worse Kx combos, you could probably bet $50 on the river.
The reason I'd be hesitant to v-bet the river is what I said - what hands does V have that get to the river, and that we can we target for value?
KT and TT - flopped a boat.
K9 - rivered a boat.
K5s - if there's even a combo of K5s available, and if V defends his straddle that wide, he turned a boat.
QJ - rivered a straight.
K8 or other KX with an even lower kicker - probably not going to call a big river bet.
He's probably not getting to the turn with 55, or to the river with 99, but if he's sticky enough to get there with K8 or lower Kx - he might get there with 55/99, and he's got a boat.
That really just leaves KQ/KJ as hands we can target for value with a big river bet. The problem is that if we give him 8 combos of KQ/KJ, he still has 4-16 combos of QJ, and all of them would get to the river when we use smaller bet sizes on earlier streets. Without any reads, we can't be confident V isn't defending his straddle with all 16 QJ combos.
That's why I said I'd raise bigger pre, bet 2/3 pot or full pot on flop, and over-bet the turn. That should narrow his range a good bit, weighting it towards Kx hands. If we took larger sizing on the previous streets, it sets up a nice river jam, in a spot where we're going to have the best hand a lot.
If we bet larger on earlier streets, V should be more willing to call with KQ/KJ, because we probably aren't playing QJ that way, and he blocks some of our QJ combos anyway. So V's KQ and KJ are only losing to AK/KTs/K9s, which is just 6 combos, assuming you're even raising the BTN as wide as KTs/K9s.
