How thin to value-bet the old man who doesn't believe me?
Previous history: I never played with him before this session. We were involved in a big pot where I raised PF with JsTs, 2 callers IP, he squeezes small, and we all call. Flop AsQs3x he checks, I go 1/2 pot, IP players fold, he calls. Turn 9x, he checks I go all in for pot and he tank calls with KK somehow. I did see him fold hands vs other players, but I guess he doesn't believe me. Maybe because I look young and I dress well (for poker players anyway).
We're playing really high stakes, $1/2
Situation: I raise to $10, only he calls BB.
$20
Flop Q32r
He checks I bet $10, he calls
$40
Turn 7x
He checks, I look at him and he looks a little nervous, I bet $20, he calls.
$80
River 2
He checks. How thin do I go?
This is how thin I want to go:
Spoiler
Any Q, 77+. I suspect he'll call with any pair, AK, and maybe some other Ace highs. I just need someone to convince me I'm not crazy.
7 Replies
Without looking at the Spoiler, I would 99+ for value here.
If you are actually going for value, I'd say JJ or better without more information than one hand where he called with KK on an A-high board. Maybe he has some read on you? I mean, do you have any other hands where he's called you (or anyone else) light?
I wouldn't read too much into that KK hand. His call is actually fairly standard imo.
It's not like you have that many Ax and of the ones you do have a lot of them wouldn't take your line.
Certainly any Qx. Anything less and it depends on your sizing. With each pair you go lower, the balance starts to shift pretty quickly against you (unless you expect him to hero call an Ace). Also depends if he's the type to check-raise bluff. What's your position, ie do you have all the sets? Going as low as 88 does seem a bit too thin for three streets unless it's for a tiny size.
How thin would you bet if you didn't play that JT vs KK hand with him? That's how thin you should go here.
That previous hand is just one data point. It's not enough to change what we're doing in order to exploit one opponent.
As to the actual hand - what does "any Q" mean? Are you raising pre with every Qx?
If you raise pre, he calls, and you go bet-bet-bet, what's the worst hand you think he has if he calls here? I'd probably be checking back with anything worse than QJ, and the older the guy is, the more likely I'd be to check back anything worse than KQ.
Previous history: I never played with him before this session. We were involved in a big pot where I raised PF with JsTs, 2 callers IP, he squeezes small, and we all call. Flop AsQs3x he checks, I go 1/2 pot, IP players fold, he calls. Turn 9x, he checks I go all in for pot and he tank calls with KK somehow. I did see him fold hands vs other players, but I guess he doesn't believe me. Maybe because I look young and I dress well (for poker players anyway).
We're playing really high stakes, $1/2
S
OMC probably calls reliably anything up to 75% of the pot. After that, the bet might get through, but still probably calls 50/50. You value beat OMC's.
In the KK hand he probably "put you on draw". On a board without any draws in your range I'd be checking back JJ vs a relative unknown
