River all in decision
Never mind how we got to the river, just that we got there 3 handed.
1st player is an easy read as he has been too loose, over aggressive and I've been ranging him correctly for the last hour.
Hero in MP has been TAG and is known by the button.
Button is a known pro, plays LAG and had called a preflop raise 5 ways.
Hero has a AJ
Board is 99AJ9
1st goes all in for $63
Hero calls with ~$200 behind
Button shoves and covers.
Pot not including the $200 river raise is ~$330.
I am sure 1st has an A.
Button probably has an A, but could have a 9, I'm sure these are the only possibilities. He seems good enough to try and force a 3-way chop into a 2-way chop.
So, at best, Hero has to call $200 to win $110, or lose $200 more.
Seems like an easy fold, does anyone disagree?
5 Replies
This should probably go in the NL Cash game forum...
There is one 9 out there and two A's. And we have to assume that neither guy is bluffing.
There is a 33% chance the $63 all in guy has a 9 and a 33% chance the BTN has a 9. The net chance that both have an A is 33%. So you win $110 33% of the time for +$36.67 net, and you lose $200 33% of the time for -$66.67 net, for a total net of -$30.
However if you are right that $63 guy never has a 9 then BTN has a 9 50% of the time. So you win $110 50% of the time for +$55 net, and you lose $200 50% of the time for -$100 net for a new net total of -$45.
Either way nice fold.
Ya, the spot just sucked hind tit.
The action on previous streets actually does matter and suits of the board and your hand can be helpful.
"Never mind the action on previous streets"
If you're too lazy to write it then in certainly too lazy to read the post, let alone bother with a response. If you think it's not relevant then you probably should be in the beginner forum.
