67s..huge move or punt?
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
Table is deep overnight game. Stacks are all over 1k. People cold opening 25 with Q6s, calling post with gutshots, jamming 800 into 100$ pots with draws, etc. Big variance game.
H has been at the table 3 orbits and played 1 hand with A2s opening early, 4 ways to a AT7J2 runout checked down, H led river for value and got called by KJo. People saw Hs A2s.
Main V - MAAG gambling it up, VPIPing 80%, cc'ing 3bets and showing down hands like 95s, JTo, etc.
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H sees 67♥ ♥ in MP and opens 20 over UTG straddle, H is 400$ and eff stack.
LP calls HJ, V calls CO, LP calls UTG, 4 ways 2nd to act.
Flop 80 - 6♠ 5♠ 5♣
check, H bets 50, fold, V calls, UTG folds, HU
Turn 180 - 3♥
H bets 105 leaving 225 back, V jams, Hero?
i think its fine to play loose in this game (everyone described sounds like a fish so you're unlikely to get punished) as long as you dont stack off every time you have top pair no kicker when it goes 4 ways to the flop lol. if you're going to do this post, you're better off playing tighter and trying to reduce the spr and then put the money in post with the best of it. i dont mean that condescendingly but preflop strategy here is going to be a function of your postflop edge and i guess bankroll
I was doing some monte carlo sims against ranges awhile back and found that our ENTIRE range actually goes up in EV as Vs ranges widen...however its not linear. As in a hand like AA will win more $$ as will a hand like 67s but while AA might double in expectation, 67s might only increase 20%.
I was thinking about this in terms of how to play at a table like this as there was another decent reg like myself buying in for 400 trying to double up and struggling to do so. He had AA against a woman on a K-8-2-K-2 runout and she showed down 62s where she had called a 3-bet pre, chunky flop sizing, x x turn and then gone AI OTR.
I guess the adjustment is this: With made hands try to lower the SPR and get the money in now. With drawing hands like SCs, AXs, try to see a flop as cheap as possible, if that's not possible just fold pre.
I was doing some monte carlo sims against ranges awhile back and found that our ENTIRE range actually goes up in EV as Vs ranges widen...however its not linear. As in a hand like AA will win more $$ as will a hand like 67s but while AA might double in expectation, 67s might only increase 20%.
I was thinking about this in terms of how to play at a table like this as there was another decent reg like myself buying in for 400 trying to double up and struggling to do so. He had AA against a woman on
i dont think pre flop hot / cold equity matters much here. if in a game where your opponents are willing to make massive errors you're going to way over realize your ev (of playable hands) even if you under realize your equity. poker's a game of trading mistakes and im willing to trade smaller ones on early streets vs people who are going to potentially make very large / stack sized errors later on in the hand (granted you're probably too shallow to do what you're doing here pre but w/e). the issue in this hand is you're the guy putting in too much money with the weaker part of your range and not in a way that lets him bluff off ie overplaying your hand
ok thanks sub
On the turn, you usually have 6 outs if not against a boat or quads. However, you are way behind a better 6, any pp, except 22 and 44, and any 5. It was 4 ways to the flop, so someone could easily have you beat. Sure someone could also be shoving with a draw on the turn.
I wouldn't say misplayed on every street, but I would definitely have not played it that way on any street.
