A2hh Turns Nut Flush
2-3 NL, 300-Match. Playing big tonight.
Villain in BB is a pro. I think he is sizing to the strength of his hand. He’s very lag and I’ve seen him on 25-50 stream in Texas. We’ve played about 20-30 times together. About 1.2k eff
Hero in HJ with A2hh
Pre: Hero opens 15, btn sb and V call
Flop (60) : KhQh9x
Checks around. Should I be betting here?
Turn (60) : 9hhh
Check check, hero 40, btn calls, V check raises to 165, just hero calls
River (430) : 3x
V 165
I think you're being too hard on yourself. You had a flush on a paired board, with a possible straight flush out there. Your hand was the 5th nuts (not giving him KK/QQ or 93).
V is in the BB, getting great odds to call with almost ATC pre.
You checking the flop multi-way sandwiched between the blinds and the BTN seems fine, and maybe optimal.
His x/r on the turn is a strong play, but if he's good, he could have a straight, a flush, a boat, a straight flush, trip 9's, or possibly some bluffs. We're ahead of his pre-flop calling range, but our hand isn't invulnerable against his turn check-raising range. We wouldn't expect him to turn many made hands into check-raise bluffs.
I think an argument could be made for 3B'ing turn or raising river, but a counter-argument could be made for taking the more defensive path to protect our stack from a cagey opponent capable of turning a strong hand into a bluff.
If we did 3B turn, he's folding out almost every hand we beat, making his range that much stronger. He could 4B, or flat call with a plan to bomb the river.
Once we flat his turn raise, and he takes this small sizing on the river, I would be tempted to put in a smallish raise, because his sizing looks fishy following the turn x/r, but there again, he could be taking this sizing to induce a raise, planning to 3B, either for value or as a bluff.
